Hehehe, Yeah. Sure.
Tell me another one, please, and make it actually amusing this time.
Before I lose it completely, let me show you what’s so funny:
Hehe…hehe..he..<urp>. Sorry. Lemme dry my eyes here…
Ahem. <cough, cough>
Ok, sorry, I just couldn’t hold that in. Just rereading the headline sets me off.
For those who’ve been following me for a while, (thanks!) you already know pretty much what I’m gonna say. So, if you want to skip a bit down stairs past what you’ve already seen before, be my guest. For the rest of you, pay attention. I know I’ve said this before, and by damn, Imma gonna have to do this again, ad nauseam, but here goes.
I know that the media has been very negative recently about the Ukrainian situation, and heck, even Dylan Combellick has been a bit down recently, but as I see it, even if Ukraine does have some setbacks, I cannot see Europe and NATO letting that go very far.
Why?
Not that hard, because Europe and NATO’s national security and safety depends on Ukraine not falling. Their very existence depends on holding the line just where it is, at the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, pre-2014, including the Ukrainian ownership of Crimea.
Now, my laughter at the above article is over how seriously the author takes the Russians. It IS pretty amusing, you have to admit, given the absolutely tragically poor performance of the Russian military in the last two years. I mean, they’ve lost almost all of the tanks they had prewar, a large majority of the armored vehicles (non-tanks) as well, and some sources say as many as 450k personnel have been lost since 2022. This doesn’t count the trucks they’ve lost, forcing them to use some civilian trucks for military logistics. If you count the fact that Ukraine has shot down or destroyed/damaged over a couple of dozen fighter aircraft and fighter bombers, plus the A-50’s, PLUS the sinking of up to maybe 40% of the Russian Black Sea fleet, well, you can kind of get my drift here.
Oh, and don’t EVER forget that the only aircraft carrier Russia owns has to be TOWED everywhere, and they’ve even almost had her sink once or twice.
Hehe…hehe. Ahem.. sorry.
Russia is certainly working to replace the lost vehicles and tanks, sure, but their domestic industry can’t replace the full number of losses per month, even by using the old mothballed chassis of Cold War era tanks and vehicles they’re pulling out and working to modernize. (Don’t even mention replacing the dead crews.) Toss in Ukrainian drones hitting various industrial sites making some of Russia’s top weapons and ammunition types, and now their oil industry, and you’ve got a serious problem building for Russia.
In addition, Russia has, according to sources I’ve read, around 450k troops inside of Ukraine now. Given that they claimed to have, before the war, around a million troops under arms, that doesn’t leave very many to, ahem, invade the US, now does it?
I mean, two years.
Come on, people, TWO FRIGGING YEARS they’ve been fighting Ukraine, and they have yet to do more than take a couple of mid sized towns, at least one of which makes WWI casualty rates look like a walk in the park.
They’ve lost 40% of their Black Sea fleet, and can’t sail the rest back into that sea for fear of losing those, too! They’ve stopped flying aircraft (at least the more expensive ones) for fear of losing those, also.
That puts a very real roadblock into their path to victory, now doesn’t it?
Look, as I’ve also said numerous times before, ever since WWII, we’ve managed to over-estimate first the USSR, and now the Russian Federation. Ukraine has stripped away the facade of strength Russia has been holding up for decades now. Far from being the #2 military power in the entire world, the only real thing setting themselves off from other third world powers is their nuclear force.
And, frankly, given the absolute crippling corruption inherent in their oligarchic system, you cannot convince me that hasn’t affected the nukes as badly as it has their conventional forces. So, how much of that is actually usable — for anything besides threats, that is?
Now, of course, as someone is bound to step into the comments and remark, “Hey, dude, that doesn’t mean they don’t want to take three US states.”
And they’ll be right. Why, again?
Because Russia is and always has been, an Authoritarian state. At no time, ever, have any of the ethnic populations in the entirety of Asia — or at least the parts Russia has controlled — had the benefit of a democratic government. Or anything even approaching that kind of thing. So, even if the best that could occur did — the dissolution of the RF — few of those States would voluntarily go democratic without a lot of outside help. Both the USSR before the RF and the Russian Empire before that were authoritarian governments that, as the current one does, stole the country’s wealth and left the dregs to the slave populace. Oh, the terms and the labels they’ve used have changed, but the processes? The end state of things?
Same ole, same ole.
If you’re gonna be a wanna be empire, and you’ve got no compunctions about invading your neighbors to do it (AND have a history of doing exactly that) it stands to reason that you’re gonna also think your neighbors think like you do. Heck, even if they don’t, they damn sure dislike you — at least.
Countries with histories like this have one thing in common — unless they’re totally defeated and the internal institutions and organizations that have for centuries supported and inculcated that way of thinking are taken apart by force, they won’t stop thinking like that, nor will they stop acting out their desires.
Only one thing then, is capable of ending the international chaos Russia is fomenting (along with China for similar reasons), and that is, in the end, a violent defeat of the governmental systems responsible, followed by a Marshal Plan kind of program to replace their governance with something more approaching a democratic system that can fit their cultural norms.
At some point, the leadership of the world needs to step up, get past their reluctance and fear, then get together and decide when enough is enough. I am not one to say that war is always the solution. My parents lived through WWII, and lost friends and family. I really wouldn’t like to see that happen to my kids, or yours. Or you.
But at some point, one has to realize what history is shoving into your face, Now it doesn’t repeat itself, but as the old saw says, it for damn sure rhymes. so if you can’t recognize the tune your opponent is humming, you’re screwed.
So, in the end, war is what will kill the RF. There is no internal path to democracy, no internal history of non-oligarchic/monarchistic behavior to oppose the current state of Russian government. Force is the only solution.
Trust me, I do hate to say that. It gives me no pleasure, in spite of my laughter above. That was in reality derisive laughter, in case that wasn’t clear.
But given the kind of people and internal systems we’re dealing with, sometimes, the most unpleasant solution is the only one that might work.
What do you think?
