Holy C**p, Trump won!
What now?
One of my major criticisms of the Democratic Party has been their failures to plan. To fail to look into the future, specifically at what their opponents are doing and what they are planning. (Of course, the GOP always fails to think things through, which doesn’t mean they don’t plan for the future — they do — but they stop thinking about the consequences after they “win”.) This is always putting the Democrats behind the eight ball as the GOP gets their goat.
So, to keep from being called out for not listening to my own criticisms, here we are.
So, as my headline noted, it’s January 21, 2025, and dear Trump is getting inaugurated for the second time. Republicans are joyously celebrating having beaten us “woke” folk, dancing in the streets, partying across the country.
Democrats are, understandably, feeling pretty shitty. Angry, disappointed, blaming Democratic Party officials, and at some point, some of us get angry enough that we decide to take to the streets to protest.
During his Inauguration speech, Trump declares a national emergency, based on “protests across the country.”
Oh, just for the sake of this mental exercise, let’s assume Trump & Co. are prepared for once, and have prepared ahead of time some paperwork to help call out the National Guard where needed to put those protests down. (I know, I know, the GOP never thinks things through, but bear with me.)
After his speech, there’s a quick signature, a couple of phone calls, and that ball starts rolling.
So, what happens? Let’s assume there are protests in three States. One is a purple swing state, another is deep blue, and the third is deep red. Just examples for this exercise. There would likely be other protests in other States, but let’s go with these three just for fun.
The deep blue state, let’s say, is California. That worthy Guv outright refuses Trump’s demand. No NG shows up, Trump is pissed, but what can he do? His second call is to the governor of say, Michigan. a swing state, but a Democratic Governor. She refuses. No NG shows up, Trump is double pissed. So, he calls the governor of Georgia, the deep red state. Yes, Georgia is controlled by the GOP. But for some months, it’s been rocked by the daily broadcast of the RICO trial of Trump and his buddies, who have managed to draw things out past the elections. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume it is still in legal limbo and no verdict has been managed yet.
But the daily broadcasts have had an affect. Only half the NG troops called by the Republican Governor show up, and half of those are late, so the NG response is delayed, and they don’t show up at the Atlanta protests until after five pm. Things are slowing down, because well, shift change, as people who were working earlier in the day get off and head downtown, and folks who’ve been there all afternoon go home to supper. (Supper, NOT “dinner”, we’re in the south, y’all.)
But the arrival of the Guard sparks more activity, and it continues through 9 pm or so, as those working folks have to get home to work tomorrow. The few remaining are the diehards, and the police move in and arrest those remaining by ten or ten thirty. Calm finally descends on Atlanta. Trump is still angry, but is somewhat mollified by the arrests.
The next day, in response to the Atlanta arrests, protests begin across the country. At the same time, Trump announces three new Executive orders.
The first includes a list of people in the DOJ (thanks, Project 2025) Trump sees as opposing him and he fires them in that Executive Order.
In the second one, Trump announces the complete closing of the Southern border.
In the third, he produces a list of Federal judges and proclaims them “fired.”
All this by 9 am, DC time. (Dang, you’d think they had all this planned!)
As the news crosses the country, protests already underway grow. On the west coast, people are out in the streets by 6:30 am, and the protests in the east are approaching record numbers, and columns of cars are converging on Washington DC from all up and down the coast.
The DOJ is in chaos, as the fired employees pack up and start to leave, all across the country. Activity across the government in DC and the surrounding areas where federal offices are located grinds to a halt as everyone watches the news.
The White House is anything but calm, as only the very top people are even now just being called in, and none of the lower staff positions are in place — Trump had refused to participate in any “transition,” claiming that Biden and his Administration were refusing to cooperate, so few low level employees got hired early.
Watching the news, Trump is alarmed at the numbers, and as he’d been advised, he calls the Pentagon — his declaration of an emergency let’s him use Federal troops for law enforcement after all — and talks to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
Who refuses, and Trump fires him on the spot. Next, he talks to each of the other Joint Chiefs and each refuses in turn, all of them alleging that no true national emergency exists to justify calling up the military to put down protests and his actions are politically motivated. He fires each in turn. He then begins working his way into the next level, talking to the second in command officers in each Branch.
As he talks to those folks, each resigns in turn, refusing to participate. As the last utters the words “I also resign”, the phone goes dead in Trump’s ear.
The Pentagon is in chaos, with nobody in charge, so ironically, Trump’s declaration of a national emergency becomes real, just not for the reason he wanted it to. He resorts to calling State governors, starting with the Red States, screaming at them to quell the protests, even if they have to “shoot them all.” The rest of the day, he watches as the United States descends into public chaos, and the News media goes nuts.
Day Two.
The “fired” federal judges have issued a joint statement noting that to “fire” federal judges, impeachment by Congress is needed, so they all refuse to accept the illegal Executive Order and are going to work per normal. Of course, with the DOJ in chaos, nothing anywhere in the federal justice system is “normal,” but the message is delivered.
Again, for this exercise, let’s assume Congress has switched around — the GOP controls the Senate and the Democrats control the House. So, Congress is still in chaos. But with this mix, GOP attempts to introduce a massive impeachment bill in accordance with Trump’s wishes fails.
Look, I could go on, but I think I’ve made my point. Even if Trump wins, he really doesn’t “win,” as people are afraid of. Just as with today, the Democrats can and will do whatever they can within our system to frustrate Trump’s attempts to create an authoritarian government.
Remember, as much as there may be a large number of “MAGA” supporters in the military, all US officers are taught, from very early, some in the ROTC from their early teens, that their allegiance is to the Constitution, not any one person or leadership position. Even a lot of those Trump supporting officers aren’t going to be as willing to risk careers for an uncertain future with an idiot like Trump, and those who aren’t supporters, well, there won’t be many of them willing to flout precedence of the past by taking action against civilians, either.
So would the reality match my exercise?
Maybe, maybe not, but I have no doubt that Trump’s attempts to become a dictator wouldn’t be as successful as he hopes and as we fear. Certainly dictators in other countries have successfully used their militaries to gain control. But those are countries with no or little history of democracy, and the lure of a regular paycheck for those in the military is a powerful lure for the poor who tend to enlist in these countries.
But the US’ history with our military isn’t like that. Ours is purely voluntary, and a lot of those folks are there for the benefits of future education, and the experience jobs in the military can provide. Plus, contrary to the Conservatives’ attempts to make us think so, the military most certainly does not have a majority of its members in support of Trump.
So the enthusiastic support of the military other countries may enjoy is most certainly not on the menu here. Part of it, perhaps, but one can certainly see efforts there to prevent it from being a critical support for Trump.
My point is that in spite of our fears (and believe me, I’m afraid of his winning, too), I don’t truly believe once he does, that he’ll automatically “win.” There’s a lot the rest of us can do to prevent it, to frustrate his efforts.
Unfortunately, the country being paralyzed by chaos is almost certain. Red States, Blue States, Purple States, government is going to slide to a halt. The rest of the world is going to hold its breath waiting for us to decide who is going to win.
I’m not even going to try to predict anything. I don’t think anyone can. Even if it did turn out anywhere close to my above exercise, how could we, by adhering to constitutional principles, manage to get through four years of that kind of thing? The only way to make it stop would be to remove Trump, and without a Congress willing to impeach, there is no other legal way to manage it. The military may be willing to take a hit to prevent him from using it in a dictatorial way, but four years is a damn long time — would they be willing to act illegally to do it themselves?
I have my doubts.
No matter how it actually works out, we’d be in deep shit. If you think the country is in bad shape now, well, all I can say is for you to Vote Blue.
Be pissed at Biden all you want about the Palestinians, or about the southern border, or gas prices, but those are, compared to an authoritarian government, short term problems. Problems we can fix later, by using our votes.
If you have different ideas about how this might work, please, feel free to wade in in the comments, I’ll be fascinated to hear others’ opinions, even those contrary to mine.
No matter what, we need to plan NOW for what to do even if those plans turn out to be unnecessary. Flying by the seat of your pants rarely works out well. Ask any pilot.
