“Loose Nukes”
Or, why a dissolved Russian Federation isn’t a nuclear disaster for the world
Everybody seems to focus on one thing to be frightened of if the Russian Federation dissolves in the wake of a Russian loss in Ukraine. And that’s the idea of “loose nukes”. The idea that the nuclear weapons they have (and yes, theirs is indeed the largest nuclear force in the world) would fall into the hands of the other Federation countries and/or terrorists (because a number of those other entities are closely aligned with such groups, apparently).
But this fear — as usual — ignores a very fundamental set of facts about nuclear weapons, and it’s one that a lot of folks forget about Russia and how THEY manage their own nuclear forces.
To begin with, it is estimated that in the ten years between 2020 and 2030, the United States will spend over 634 billion dollars on those forces, including the submarine elements of it. That’s over 60 billion dollars a year. That’s a number that my currency exchange app shows in over twelve places raised to the power of twelve in rubles — just for that annual figure, not the entire ten year expense!
Now, the next logical point is that Russia is an oligarchy, and it is as corrupt as any other oligarchy is, and in fact, that corruption is probably worse then we think it is, in part because it goes from Putin’s level all the way down to the poorest Russians.
It is also well known that one of the problems Putin has in the Ukrainian conflict IS that corruption, since it steals untold amounts of money and materials from the logistical supply trains for the military forces in Ukraine.
So, what in the hell makes any of you folks think that the corruption doesn’t extend into their nuclear forces? I mean, come on, people with THAT kind of money just begging for changing hands into some general’s bank account? Keep dreaming, people, maybe the dreams will get better with time.
A nuclear force like Russia’s is comprised of a number of differing types of nukes.
Missiles, both siloed and aircraft launched, artillery fired, and more than likely suitcase sized stuff too.
A nuke doesn’t just sit there like a monument. The electronics need maintenance; it degrades just by being there. The plutonium (or whatever you use) has such a short half-life that it turns into an inert piece of metal after about 30 years and must be replaced — it can’t explode anymore.
And don’t get me started on the missiles. The fuel is unstable, with a shelf life of some 6 months. You can’t keep it in the missile, since it’s corrosive and will eat through fuel lines and tanks. And the missile has its own electronics, slowly decaying.Keeping nukes is expensive. You need all that stuff, highly specialized and advanced, plus experts to maintain it all.
And that doesn’t take into account the conventional explosives that set the thing off — those have to be replaced every (I think) five years or so, and they require an exact and very precise shaping or the entire nuke won’t go off properly. That alone isn’t a cheap or simple process.
And, frankly, if you were the guy (or gal) in charge of designing a suitcase nuke, would you really design it with a simple little timer/button control mechanism? That any stupid Tom, Dick, or Harry might figure out in two minutes? Or might you put a control mechanism into it that includes, say, a passcode? Or something to insert that activates it?
Or the artillery nukes. Same song, next verse. Are you going to just store them in simple little artillery shell storage compartments just sitting there ready to shove into a handy piece of artillery? Or maybe, just maybe, you’d include a control thing-a-ma-jig that would get inserted just before you fire the damn thing at your enemy. Something you’d keep under lock and key, or maybe in a safe that only a couple of people have the combo to. You know, just to ensure some idiot doesn’t just steal one for kicks?
Or money. You know, since you live in an oligarchy. Trust me, even the Soviets had that issue.
As for those handy missiles launched from aircraft, do you really think that any of those RF Federation folks who aren’t Russian would have any of the more advanced aircraft designed to carry and launch those? Or might have anyone who may possibly understand how to program it for launching at a target? Again, are the designers going to try and make that simple? Don’t you think they’d have something like that activation insert for those too?
Anything small enough to stick into a smallish box and cart off in a car or small truck must be protected, and all of the nukes need a protection against accidental activation/explosion. The nuclear material may need conventional explosives to go boom, but those conventional explosives can be, shall we say, less than stable? So there has to be some way to control those from accidental “booms”.
Plus, as I noted, the mechanisms that control them and programs them and launch them have their own maintenance procedures to remain functional, and require trained personnel to do those things. THEN you need trained personnel who know how to operate those launching mechanisms, and for each type of nukes, none of that is exchangeable. Each type requires separate training, for both maintenance and operation.
And last, the components. Electronics aren’t a small part of those systems, and Russia doesn’t make those. They have to get them from outside the country. How easy is that? Plus, how much of the cash required for those components also gets stolen as part of the corruption?
Am I getting through yet? The United States, as I mentioned, spends 60 billion dollars a year on our nukes, much of that on the launching mechanisms that make them useful. As far as I know, the controls for all of that are strict, and I’d be amazed if anyone could pocket any of the cash or materials that’s part of those systems.
In conclusion, stop spreading frightening bullshit about Russia. Yes, nukes are concerning, but again, Russia is a corrupt oligarchy, and just assuming that doesn’t affect their nuclear forces is a huge mistake. If the RF ever does disintegrate, that’s going to insert a huge amount of uncertainty into the world community and international relations, even ignoring the nukes.
But I seriously doubt that the Russian nuclear forces are going to be a serious issue, unless any of those get transferred to a nation like Iran who does have experts who may be able to use the elements received for their own purposes.
But to be used by terrorists?
You are seriously overestimating the ability of terrorists.
