Can We Fight COVID-19?
By Grace C. Sorongon
The online presentation of Mckinsey & Co. in the Makati Business Club webinar last April 21 regarding the potential impact of COVID-19 to the economy proved to have several practical points to consider. They presented some measures around dependency on mass testing, containment of the virus and preventing the resurgence of cases once we lift the quarantine. Once these measures are addressed, then we can probably talk about the next phase, which is about economic recovery.
Per their presentation, those countries who managed to slow down the virus will stand to recover better, economy-wise. And those countries that managed to slow down the virus are those which have an aggressive mass testing program. Of course, you can refer to countries like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Canada, the Netherlands and other developed nations in Europe which did mass testing even at the onset to further understand the nature of the virus. All the other countries have their own mechanism in fighting the virus and it seems reassuring to note that these countries have bonded together so that they could arrive at a solution at the earliest possible time.
McKinsey also presented the effect of the virus on various industries in the Philippines, not to mention recovery time per industry. The fundamentals of the Philippine economy are on solid ground, considering the $33.6B remittances of our OFWs, around $25B from the service/BPO industry, and tourism and other industries that make up the rest. However, this time, a number of OFWs are going home because there are limited jobs outside the Philippines. Remittances will certainly be affected. They will be able to recover in 12 months.
Some of the IT BPOs are slowing down due to insourcing and repatriation of jobs. There is anecdotal evidence that some contracts have been canceled. But it seems that this industry is very resilient and can perhaps recover quickly. Tourism is definitely badly hit because there are no tourists coming in. There is also no indication that this industry will open up one of these days. Hence, their recovery is not expected soon.
And last but not the least, the manufacturing industry that cannot export products since the global market is in pandemonium. The manufacturing of essential products, especially food, is running at 50% capacity. This perhaps will be brought up to 100% capacity once the extended community quarantine is lifted. There will be recovery in this area then.
How can the economy be reactivated? How can workers get back to work safely? What can we do to pivot quickly so that we can drive the economy amidst the perils of COVID-19? These are questions which only future results can answer. At the moment, we still are coping in the dark — but hopefully, answers to these questions will be provided soon.
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About the author:
Grace C. Sorongon was the 2013 President of People Management Association of the Philippines. She has been working with John Clements Consultants for more than three decades now. She is a Senior Vice President and is in charge of various corporate projects, steering these projects towards completion. She also manages the operations of Professional Staffers, a business unit within the John Clements group.
