MAP Economic Briefing and GMM
By Neil Binalla
Each year, most of us are looking forward to a brighter year ahead. It may be personal, family, community or business-related, especially after we experienced surges and lockdowns due to Covid-19 and the most recent Omicron variant in early 2022. In light of all the global challenges, it becomes more important to understand what will happen in 2022 after two years of our economy battling Covid.
This is why I was so interested when I learned that the MAP General Membership Meeting last February 10 also included a 2022 Economic Briefing. I couldn’t wait to listen to the three speakers, namely Sec. Karl Kendrick T. Chua — Socioeconomic Planning, NEDA Secretary; Dr. Cielito F. Habito, Professor at Ateneo de Manila; and Dr. Rong Qian, Senior Economist, World Bank Philippines.
Sec. Chua’s presentation on Revving Up Towards a Full Recovery in 2022 caught my attention as we are all looking forward to recovering in 2022 after almost 2 years of the pandemic. In the first year of the pandemic, the economy fell 17% due to stringent quarantines and lockdowns, but gradually grew a year after by 5.6%, close to the 6% average growth pre-pandemic level. The Duterte administration’s effective risk management — moving to targeted quarantines, granular lockdowns, and crowd management on imposing protocols gave rise to a 7–9% growth forecast. This includes lowering the unemployment rate to 5% from as high as 17.6% in 2020. He also shared a 10-point policy to accelerate and sustain our country’s economic recovery:
- Metrics
- Vaccination
- Healthcare Capacity
- Economy and mobility
- Schooling
- Domestic Travel
- International Travel
- Digital Transformation
- Pandemic Flexibility Bill
- Medium Term Preparation for pandemic resilience
Sec. Chua said that the top priorities of NEDA that can be the foundation of the next administration will include (1) Smarter Infrastructure — more connected and urbanized, focusing on better travel experience; (2) Innovation — by the passage of the Philippine Innovation Act; (3) Regional Equity — a budget-based approach based on the needs, and not by (or from) the politician’s assessment. It will have a project ID that can be tracked and monitored from identification to completion and evaluation. And lastly, (4) Climate Change — a core of development planning for all sectors.
It’s amazing to know that the Philippine economy is growing and unemployment is declining. However, how do we fare with our neighboring countries and/or the world? The presentation of Dr. Rong Qian on the Global Economic Outlook is somewhat scary and frustrating because of the projection that the world economy will decelerate from 5.5% in 2021, to 4.1% in 2022, to 3.2% in 2023 due to scars of Covid, higher food and energy prices, diminished fiscal support and sustained supply disruption.
The advanced economies are projected to recover by 2023, but not the rest of the world due to slowdown in China, and emerging and developing economies due to lower vaccination rates and impact of Covid. She also presented the possible multiple risk factors like new outbreaks, supply bottlenecks, financial stress, weaker long-term growth, climate-related disasters, and inflationary pressures that can be addressed with the right policy priorities. Some of these are equitable access to vaccines, strengthened fiscal and monetary frameworks to control a pandemic, ensure macroeconomic stability, crisis preparedness and inequality.
However, it is a different story in the Philippines’ positioning with economic growth rates. The rising growth trend is due to public investment and household consumption. I wonder if having a low foreign direct investment and dependencies are plus factors during turbulent times like the global financial crisis and now the pandemic’s effect on our economy. Also, Filipinos working abroad and their remittances are a real asset to the economic stability of the Philippines.
In reflection, can we really sustain the Philippine growth with the upcoming presidential elections? Are the candidates qualified enough to lead our country? Do they have the right leadership traits and skills? Are they ready to make the necessary sacrifices to unite the Filipino people and Filipino leaders, and march to progress?
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