The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Elections on Geopolitics in Asia and Beyond
By Mario A. Biscocho
Last November 24, 2020, Professor Douglas W. Elmendorf, Dean of Faculty of the Harvard Kennedy School shared his views on the impact of the recent U.S. Elections on geopolitics in Asia, Europe, and the other parts of the world. It is worthwhile to note the several firsts in the recently concluded elections — the oldest elected President; the first woman elected Vice President of African and Southeast Asian descent; the highest voter turnout in history; the highest number of votes for a losing Presidential candidate; and the vivid contrast between the Democrats and the Republicans. The recent election exercise and its ramifications will certainly have global repercussions.
Professor Elmendorf shared his four-point views:
1. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will be leading a country more divided today. The recent election is a witness to this, with Biden garnering around 75 million votes, while Trump was not too far behind at 70 million. This means that a huge number of Americans believe the leadership and presidential style of Trump. And the latter’s incessant protestation and pronouncements, with no proof or factual basis, that he had been cheated engenders mistrust, exacerbating the divide between the followers of the two presidential camps.
Biden has his work cut out for him — healing the massive divide among Americans. He has expressed interest in taking on this major challenge. The way he handles this division will also reverberate with leaders of other countries, who will be watchful of the U.S. democratic process. Will there be a shift in policy after Biden, a Republican, takes over the presidency again? Trump is perhaps an exception and, hopefully, the transition of the country leadership will not be the same as what is happening now.
2. The U.S. will be returning to a deliberate, steady, and consistent policy-making. Whereas Trump was inconsistent in his positions and policy-making decisions not grounded on facts and careful analyses, it is expected that the Biden Administration will be characterized by sound and grounded policy-making. While Trump has shown his disdain for the career professionals in the government, Biden’s administration is expected to rely on trained professionals. He will be relying on the steady, albeit predictable, support of the bureaucracy. World leaders can, therefore, rely on a more reliable leadership and not an antagonistic one. Trump has certainly alienated countless leaders of the world and the rise of Biden is awaited with more optimism of the U.S.’s role in the global arena.
3. The U.S. will be refocusing itself in its multilateral relationships with other countries. Trump trumpeted his “America First” policy, which virtually isolated the U.S., cutting its relationship and support for global organizations and initiatives (WHO, Climate Change Accord, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the like). Biden is expected to return to the U.S.’s leadership role in global initiatives, repairing relationships with various countries in the process. But while Biden will be bringing back the U.S. into its traditional approach to foreign relations and trade, he would have to carefully balance the interests of Americans, knowing fully well that Trump’s “America First” resonated to a sizeable part of the U.S. population. His foreign policy must reflect this new reality, but one which takes into account the welfare of the whole U.S. and not just a portion of it.
4. The U.S.-China relationship will be one of competition and cooperation. Trump’s move to dramatically reduce the bilateral relationship with China was not a sensible one. This, given that China has already risen to prominence in the global scene, it has increased its purchasing power tremendously; its economy is growing much faster than the U.S.; it has bolstered its ties with Asia and Africa; and it has, likewise, strengthened its military might. Biden will have to lead the way to bring back the U.S.’s relevance and might in the international scene. One way, and which Biden plans to do, is to repair its alliance with the European Union and other major countries, which were alienated by Trump. Biden will also have to find ways to co-exist with China, one of which is in the area of information technology, which can benefit both countries. Another one is cooperation in global initiatives, like combating climate change, i.e., combined U.S. and China account for 40% of the global greenhouse emission. Biden will have to find a delicate balance of cooperating and competing with China.
While President-elect Biden is yet to assume the mantle of U.S. leadership, with Trump petulantly acting like a sore loser that he is, his work in the U.S. and how it will impact the world is a major challenge staring him in the face. We wish him the best of luck.
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About the author:
Mario is the Senior Vice President and Managing Director of the Executive Search and Selection Division, and HRD Consulting Division of John Clements Consultants, Inc. He has been with the company since 1986, initially handling sales and business development. Mario has also taken leadership positions in other John Clements business units: Professional Staffers and PT John Clements Indonesia.
Mario received his undergraduate degree in business management from the Ateneo de Manila University, and he has earned MBA units from the Ateneo Graduate School of Business. He has attended numerous training and development programs, locally and internationally.
