The BRI (Belt and Road) and the String of Pearls.
In the 1970s China started its Capitalistic transformation from the socialistic ruins of the Mao era under the tutelage of Den Xiaoping, widely considered as the architect of modern China, currently the second largest economy in the world and growing efficiently, avoiding a middle income trap unlike its peers Russia and Brazil. His policy was simple. “Hide you strength, bide your time and never the lead”. The subsequent economic liberalization and unassertiveness led to an unprecedented growth boom in China which will remain in the annals of history as one of the most successful models of economic growth and poverty alleviation. Beijing lauds its governance system for the success of its economy. It refers to it as “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”. However when Xi Jinping assumed presidency in 2013, he started to centralize the authority in the Chinese Communist Party and consolidated power. Under his presidency a more assertive China emerged which didn’t languish to challenge territorial claims with neighbours stirring a hornet’s nest and in some cases unilaterally changing the status quo itself using its growing military clout coupled with economic might (South China Sea).
China’s assertiveness put it in direct confrontation of Washington and its allies. Washington feared the rise of Communist China as an economic and military superpower which could potentially topple it from the numero uno position it had dominated for decades and threaten the democratic liberal world order. China also knew that the thorn in its path was none other than Washington. To counter Washington’s influence in the world, China started economic efforts under ‘The Belt and Road’ initiative or formerly known as the OBOR(One Belt One Road) initiative was the pet project of Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013 with the aim of linking China with other countries in lieu of the ancient sea and silk routes of China with a series of modern infrastructure projects including bridges, railways, ports, airports, energy power plants by investing trillions of dollars(estimated costs pegged at 5$trillion) resulting in a win-win cooperation of participating countries along with China. China under OBOR extended line of credit with less hassles, regulations and purview in contrary to international monetary bodies such as the World bank and the IMF, sometimes in direct defiance of Washington’s unilateral sanctions So far around 70 countries including Russia, Italy are the part of Xi’s magnanimous initiative including the south Asian countries of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal and Maldives i.e., sans Pakistan every country which has friendly relations with New Delhi and comes within the area of Strategic significance for India. New Delhi has opted to stay out of BRI stating sovereignty concerns and missing engagement on mutually acceptable terms. Now if you are familiar with the mutual funds investment advertisements, there’s an enunciation “read investment related documents carefully” or one might popularly phrase it as “निवेश से संबंधित दस्तावेजों को ध्यान से पढ़ें”, The Belt and Road initiative comes in lieu with that popular saying where the debt-trap diplomacy was terms and conditions in discreetly small letters or as the Chinese would say “economic cooperation with Chinese Characteristics”. The belt and road initiative has plunged many countries with into debt such as Sri Lanka where the Chinese constructed Hambantota Port was leased to the Chinese for 99 years due to non-repayment of loans to the Chinese Government which it had initiated to Sri Lanka for construction of BRI projects in its land. The Malaysian Government after the Mahathir Mohammed government came into being in 2018 put BRI projects worth 18$Billion on hold because that would have pushed Malaysia into a spiraling debt trap and some projects were simply white elephants which Malaysia couldn’t have afforded including the East Coast Railway high speed rail project which was pegged at 20$Billion dollars. The most Glaring example of debt-trap coercion can be attributed to Pakistan’ where China has planned to invest almost 60$billion for the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) which critics have touted as the white elephant of the century given the debt ratio to GDP of Pakistan booming out of control, a worsening economy and a credit rating by rating agencies a hairline away from “JUNK”. Recently China agreed to invest another 4$Billion dollars in the construction of the Daimer Basha dam in the illegally occupied region of Gilgit-Baltistan. Pakistan also recently unearthed irregularities over 880$million dollars in the CPEC implementation with the issue being subterfuged to please the Chinese. China has also extended its clout to Iran where it signed a deal with Iranian authorities to invest 400Billion $ in Iran in a period of 20 years. Iran and India are developing the Chabahar pot in Iran which would give India access to Central Asia and also serve as a competition to the Gwadar Port being developed by China in Pakistan under CPEC. India fears that China might use this line of credit to persuade Iran to drop India from the Chabahar Project thus luring a strategic partner of India closer to Beijing.
Now why the String of Pearls? String of Pearls is a strategic encirclement strategy by the Chinese to encircle India by building military infrastructure along the key points (pearls) in Indian Ocean to put pressure on New Delhi, check its military dominance in the Indian ocean which it considers as its backyard and to possibly ward off a chokehold of the strategic Malacca Strait (The narrow and extremely important strait of water between Malaysia and Sumatra {Indonesia}) by India which accounts for almost 90% of the Chinese overseas trade. What is particularly worrying is the piling debt of the South Asian neighbours of India under Chinese debt and then China pulling the strings just like Hambantota for leasing of strategic assets to it. The militarization of the BRI can’t be ruled out as the Chinese already have started to build a naval base at Gwadar Port which is leased to them till 2059 by Pakistan (The gateway to CPEC). A Chinese nuclear attack Submarine had also docked at Karachi at May 2015 and Chinese conventional submarines had docked at Colombo in 2014 ringing alarm bells in New Delhi. China is helping Bangladesh to build a Submarine base in Cox Bazar with a loan assistance of 1.2$Billion dollars. It is also building a container port in Chittagong. China has heavily invested in Bangladesh under the BRI and recently waived off duties for 97% of Bangladesh’s exports to China. In 2007 the Indian Navy published its maritime doctrine which emphasized to counter Chinese influence in the Indian by ramping up its presence in the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Malacca to counter the nefarious designs of Chinese influence and possible dominance in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region). Now is the BRI the New String of Pearls for India? The preemptive actions of the Chinese and the militarization of the BRI do certainly point out in that way. By trying to outmaneuver India in the Indian Ocean, China is pushing India closer to Washington and its allies. India has always maintained a non-aligned position in respect to diplomacy and strategic affairs but Beijing’s hegemony has forced New Delhi to up the ante and arm itself to counter the Chinese and reconsider its policy of non-alignment. Beijing is risking cats and dogs by losing a natural partner which has common goals with it as a rising economic powerhouse, the risks of which will only unfold in future.
