This Took Me Longer Than 25 Seconds: My Thoughts on the Eve of the New Hampshire Primary

After political fanboys like myself experienced a week-long period of distress and withdrawal, we have our first primary: New Hampshire. In years past, the Granite State has served as a critical contest in both the Republican and Democratic contests. The past four of six competitive primary winners between both parties eventually went on to be the nominee.

In the past seven days, we have seen the rise and potential fall of Marco Rubio, the alleged “dirty tricks” of the Cruz campaign, a primetime Democratic debate, several candidates suspending their campaigns, and the rising competitiveness of other establishment candidates in the Republican field in New Hampshire.

In my previous prediction piece, I predicted that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would win Iowa, and I was half right. Now I would like to go over my predictions for the nation’s first primary in the Granite State.

Donald Trump will win New Hampshire by single digits, with a hard-fought second place by John Kasich

In my prediction piece for Iowa, I wrongly predicted that Trump would win; however, this time around in New Hampshire, I feel more confident. He has led by double digits for months now, and it would be quite the disaster if he gave up such a big lead in little time. According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast as of this morning, Trump has a 69% chance of winning, followed by Marco Rubio being handed a 11% chance.

After a third place finish in Iowa, it seemed that Rubio may pose a challenge to Trump in New Hampshire; not necessarily a challenge for first place, but at least closing the gap between the two. This seemed highly likely until a disastrous debate performance, which was highlighted by his exchange with Chris Christie in which he repeated verbatim the same statement three times in four minutes, feeding Christie’s criticism that Rubio relies on “memorized 25-second speeches” like a typical Washington politician. The impact of Rubio’s debate performance isn’t entirely clear because of no new polls conducted entirely after the debate on Saturday night.

But, I suspect that because New Hampshire voters were more likely than not paying attention to the debate and for their political culture, Rubio will fall out of the top two. Voters are going to ask themselves whether a young candidate who has to rely on memorized soundbites in order to rebut another candidate on the debate stage is ready to be President of the United States.

Meanwhile, John Kasich has been building his ground game in New Hampshire from the ground-up ever since his announcement last July. He has held over 100 town halls throughout the state and recently has seen himself propelled into the top three. After a good debate performance, it’s not unreasonable to think that departing Rubio supporters look for a moderate alternative, and that alternative is Kasich. I think Kasich will do enough to pull ahead of Rubio to finish second in New Hampshire.

With such a big lead heading into the primary, I see Donald Trump pulling this one out, but not as big as the polls claim. I’m not thoroughly convinced that Trump supporters are people that go out and vote, thus I will say that Trump will finish above Kasich by single digits.

As expected, Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire, but not enough to trigger widespread momentum into future states

For almost six months, Bernie Sanders has consistently led in the Granite State against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. This is mainly due to A) the fact that New Hampshire borders Vermont, Bernie’s home state, and B) a large population of white liberals, something uncharacteristic of states like Nevada and South Carolina. The question of whether he will win tomorrow is not even a discussion. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gives Sanders >99% chance of winning, and polls show Sanders up by an average of 13.2 percentage points.

In the past, New Hampshire has made a great impact on the future of a party’s race. As mentioned above, a recent majority of party nominees have won the New Hampshire primary. However, this time, the Democratic result may be part of the minority. Sanders’ numbers with minority groups are minimal compared to Clinton’s, and both Iowa and New Hampshire are not filled with a large population of non-whites. This spells trouble for Sanders down the line as the primaries moves out of these states. If he can manage to win by a huge margin in New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton, this will result in more positive media attention and more pressure on the Clinton campaign.

So here’s my statement on this race: I don’t believe that Sanders will generate enough momentum coming out of New Hampshire to rise his poll numbers in states like Nevada and South Carolina. I believe this solely with the fact that I believe the voters who are undecided will take a safe bet with the establishment pick instead of the flashy candidate, which is what voters have done in the past with Clinton instead of Obama in 2008.

What does this spell for the future of the race?

The way New Hampshire plays out can determine what will happen both short-term and long-term in terms of the race.

In the short-term, expect candidates like Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and even Jeb Bush to drop out pending poor performances. All of these candidates have put a good number of their eggs into the New Hampshire basket, so they must perform well if they wish to stay in the race. For Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, this state was never theirs to begin with, so their focus is entirely on South Carolina and beyond.

In the long run, this is a huge moment for Marco Rubio. If he can prove to the nation that he can put in consecutive strong performances, the establishment can grow to him closer and closer. If not, this puts his candidacy in big trouble since he is seen as the moderate within the party who can’t even finish in the top two.

Or, if another establishment figure makes their second-place finish close against Trump, he can establish himself as an establishment alternative to Rubio, making the campaign dread on even longer. It’s also a big night for Donald Trump. Trump finishing poorly pushes forth the image that he is a loser and not a winner like his campaign says he is. Trump needs a big night in order to silence the skeptics until South Carolina.

In terms of the Democrats, Bernie’s performance is going to lay out whether or not he is a legitimate contender to Hillary’s candidacy. If Bernie underperforms, there won’t be much hope for him in future states. If Bernie exceeds expectations, then more media and more attention will possibly lead to a rise in the polls.

Final Predictions

Republicans: Trump (+7), Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Cruz, Christie, Fiorina, Carson

Democrats: Sanders (+15), Clinton

Dropouts: Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie