‘Twas the Night Before Iowa: Final Thoughts on the First Primary Contest
After hundreds of days of coverage, hundreds of campaign events and an entire frenzy of debauchery in this election thus far, the election season is officially coming into full swing with the Iowa caucuses taking place tomorrow night. With Iowa being my home state, I have always loved this night. In 2008, I remember going to my old school where both of my parents caucused for then-Sen. Barack Obama. In 2012, when I started to pay more attention to politics, I travelled to St. Ambrose University with my parents to see them caucus for former Congressman Ron Paul.
Now in 2016, the day that I have thought about constantly for four years is finally here. RealClearPolitics has been collecting poll data about Iowa since April 2014, with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former Florida governor Jeb Bush at the top of the pack for the Republicans. For the Democrats, current front-runner Hillary Clinton, Vice President Joe Biden, and then-Maryland governor Martin O’Malley were being polled as possible candidates. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders would begin to be mentioned in polls starting in October 2014, five months after the first polls were being released.
So on the eve of the caucuses, I would like to spill out my thoughts and predictions:
Donald Trump will come out with a historic victory in Iowa, and Marco Rubio could come out with enough momentum to become a legitimate challenge to Trump
As unfortunate and crazy as this sounds, the forecasts and recent polls seem to point in a historic victory for Mr. Trump. According to RCP averages, Trump leads the field by a margin of 6.2%. Trump has been declining over the past few days, and so has Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who’s right behind him in the polls. After Cruz’s poor performance in the previous GOP debate, it’s unclear how much it will affect him tomorrow night, especially after Trump’s absence may have caused the debate to be the second-lowest rated debate in the entire election season. I believe that Trump’s slight decrease in poll numbers will only have minimum effect with Cruz’s sliding numbers and poor debate performance. Trump’s entire victory strategy is all dependent on whether or not his supporters actually turn out and vote. With a possible snowstorm ready to interfere with the caucuses, Trump’s campaign is doing all it can to make sure his supporters know where to go and what time to arrive at their caucus location.
If Ted Cruz falls behind and finishes a distant 2nd or even 3rd behind a rising Marco Rubio, the Cruz campaign is going to have a largely uphill battle these next few races.
Meanwhile, Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been on the rise recently with a bump of approximately 3% in the past seven days; however, will it be enough? I don’t believe this to be the case. Rubio’s rise in the past week or two is too little, too late. Although I don’t think Rubio will win the caucuses, he is very capable of finishing a strong 3rd or could even swipe the runner-up status from Ted Cruz, effectively switching the race from Trump-Cruz to Trump-Rubio going into New Hampshire. After that, Marco Rubio will have another chance of becoming the main candidate to stand up to the juggernaut that is Donald Trump in New Hampshire, South Carolina and so on. In those two states, Rubio is currently positioned in 5th and 3rd, respectively.
Other things to pay attention to: look out for Rand Paul’s college student turnout. According to his campaign, they have 10,000 college students committed to caucus for him in the Hawkeye State. If the hype lives up, he could sneak past Ben Carson to finish in the top four. Rand is currently in 6th according to RealClearPolitics; however, I believe that the number of young people willing to caucus for him will earn him at least a 5th place finish.
Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa caucuses for the Democrats, but don’t count out a Bernie Sanders upset
At the start of this election cycle, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared to be the inevitable frontrunner with no challenger in sight. Then came along a 74 year old, self-described democratic socialist named Bernie Sanders. When I attended an event at St. Ambrose University before he started to gain momentum, the audience was expected to be 300 people and ended up being 700 people. Large crowd after large crowd, it seemed Bernie could potentially pose a challenge to Hillary, but nowhere near the thought of winning the nomination.
The past few weeks, however, have shown Bernie’s numbers rising. A month ago, Hillary Clinton held a 12.5% lead in Iowa; now, it’s 3.3%. My prediction of Hillary Clinton winning Iowa is not an absolute one. Bernie Sanders has two ways of winning Iowa, both of which are entirely possible:
1/ Young people vote
Poll after poll has shown Bernie’s support among those 18–35 year old towering over Clinton’s. Here’s the problem: young people typically don’t vote. Only 20% of young people voted in the 2014 midterm elections. If Bernie’s ground game manages to get college students in Iowa City, Cedar Falls, and Ames to leave their dorms to caucus for less than an hour on a Monday night, it could turn into a historic upset.
2/ Martin O’Malley supporters and party rules
According to party rules, a candidate’s supporters who don’t make up at least 15% of the vote at a precinct meeting have two options: leave or change teams to another candidate. What this means is that O’Malley supporters potentially have the power to swing the race towards one candidate or the other. According to a recent Public Policy Polling poll, O’Malley supporters said their second choice in the race was Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton by a margin of 43–20%. With a race this close, the 4.4% of Iowa Democrats who support the former Maryland governor could generate a huge political upset.
I still think Hillary will eventually pull this off, though. Unlike the Republicans, it’s safe to bet on the establishment pick. There isn’t any polling to suggest that young voter turnout will change for a primary contest and O’Malley supporters giving Bernie the edge depends on a contest that is initially separated by 1–2%.
Aftermath
The day after the Iowa caucuses is a day where both fields are filtered out with candidates dropping out. In the Republican race, expect candidates like former Iowa caucus winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, and possibly even Rand Paul to depart. On the Democratic side, a possible O’Malley exit is looming.
In terms of the race in the long-run, Marco Rubio, as mentioned before, can take Ted Cruz’s place as the national challenger to Donald Trump towards the nomination. New Hampshire is a huge opportunity for Rubio to finish a strong 2nd, but must get past Cruz, Bush, and John Kasich who sits 2nd in polling and was recently endorsed by the Boston Globe, the New York Times, and the Concord Monitor.
Bernie Sanders can roll into New Hampshire with a monumental upset in Iowa. He currently leads by double-digits in the Granite State, which borders his home state of Vermont. I believe that if Bernie has any sort of chance of decreasing Hillary’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination, he must win Iowa and New Hampshire.
Judging from surprise finishes from Hillary Clinton finishing 3rd in 2008 and Rick Santorum winning in 2012, anything can happen with the results tomorrow night. I don’t see anything out of the ordinary coming out of nowhere to shock the political world, but I’m fairly certain that my home state will deliver excitement as always.
Final predictions:
Republicans: Donald Trump (+8), Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Rand Paul
Democrats: Hillary Clinton (+3), Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley
Dropouts: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, Martin O’Malley
