20 Seats To Watch
Queensland Votes
by Jenny Menzies, Dr Tracey Arklay and Professor Anne Tiernan
With the next Queensland State election now called for 25 November 2017, Griffith University political scientists have pulled together their list of the 20 top seats to watch.
BUDERIM
Sitting MP: Steve Dickson (PHON) since 2009
Buderim is currently held by the Parliament’s only One Nation member and Queensland leader Steve Dickson. He has held the seat since 2009 as a member of the LNP but resigned from the party to become a One Nation member in 2017. In the 2015 election he won the seat with a margin of 12.2% and though a conservative seat, Buderim will not necessarily be a happy hunting ground for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. The LNP are hoping to regain the seat and their candidate Brent Mickelberg is an ex-army officer with a young family.
Redistribution status: Northern areas being moved to new seat of Ninderry, while gaining Buddina from Kawana.
BUNDABERG
Sitting MP: Leanne Donaldson (ALP) since 2015
Leanne Donaldson was briefly Minister for Agriculture and Fisheries in the Palaszczuk Cabinet but resigned in 2016 due to scandals about unpaid rates and driving an unregistered vehicle. With a thin margin of 1.6% and a tainted local member, Bundaberg will be a challenge for the ALP to regain. The LNP won the primary vote at the 2015 election and their candidate is an ex police officer and Deputy Mayor of the Bundaberg Council.
Redistribution status: It gains some surrounding suburbs from the electorate of Burnett.
CAIRNS
Sitting MP: Rob Pyne (IND) since 2015
Rob Pyne won the seat as an ALP candidate in the 2015 election with a margin of 8.5%. After clashing with Deputy Premier Jackie Trad he resigned as an ALP member in 2016 to sit in Parliament as an independent. For the ALP, this is a must win seat. ALP candidate Michael Healy has a background in business and the tourism sector and Cairns will be a priority seat for the ALP campaign.
Redistribution status: Loses southern suburbs to Mulgrave while gaining from Barron River.
COOPER (ASHGROVE)
Sitting MP: New seat formed in 2017 redistribution
Cooper was created in the 2017 electoral redistribution and replaces much of the former seat of Ashgrove with the addition of Bardon, Milton and Paddington from the abolished seat of Mt Coot-tha. Kate Jones is the sitting ALP member for Ashgrove on a margin of 4.3%. The LNP candidate Robert Shearman is an ex army officer from The Gap. Anthony Green calculated the new margin for the seat is to the ALP at 3.3%.
CURRUMBIN
Sitting MP: Jann Stuckey (LNP) since 2004.
Jann Stuckey was Minister for Tourism, Small Business and the Commonwealth Games during the Newman Government and won the seat from former Labor Minister Merri Rose in 2004. The ALP candidate, Georgi Leader a young mother with a background in financial services and this seat is one the ALP are keen to win.
Current Margin: 5.2%
Redistribution status: Minor changes to boundary.
EVERTON
Sitting MP: Tim Mander (LNP) since 2012
The LNP will be keen to hold on to Everton and high profile candidate Tim Mander who has leadership ambitions within the Party. The recent redistribution worked slightly in the sitting MPs favour with the current margin a slender 1.8%. The ALP candidate David Greene is a legal officer for the Maritime Union and an openly gay candidate. With the Green vote sitting at 10% at the 2015 election, their redistribution will play a role in deciding the winner of this seat.
Redistribution status: Minor changes to boundary.
GLASS HOUSE
Sitting MP: Andrew Powell (LNP) since 2009
Glass House was traditionally a safe seat for the LNP but that changed at the 2015 election and the redistribution will shave a bit more off an already slender margin. The danger for the LNP is in losing votes to the conservative right and PHON candidate Tracey Bell-Henselin has a background in agriculture and is a campaigner against issues such as the Safe Schools Program.
Current Margin: 1.4%
Redistribution status: Nearly every shared boundary with surrounding electorates changed.
LOCKYER
Sitting MP: Ian Rickuss (LNP) since 2004
With the retirement of the sitting member at this election, Lockyer will be a chief target for PHON. At the 2015 election Pauline Hanson ran for the seat and gained 27% of the vote. At this election PHON are running long term member Jim Savage. He has a background in agriculture and the resource sector. With the current margin of only 0.7% winning this seat will be a priority for PHON.
Redistribution status: Previous panhandle extending south of Ipswich to Jimboomba transferred to new seats of Jordan and Scenic Rim. Fernvale and more rural parts of Ipswich West moved into Lockyer.
MANSFIELD
Sitting MP: Ian Walker (LNP) since 2012
Mansfield is a seat that usually changes with a change of government but former Newman Cabinet Minister Ian Walker hung onto it in 2015 with a tiny margin of 0.5%. On the new boundaries it has become marginally an ALP seat. The ALP are running a strong candidate in Corinne McMillan who is Principal of Cavendish Road State High School. If the seat changes hands, the LNP would lose one of their best performers
Redistribution status: Gains areas around Mount Gravatt from Greenslopes.
MARYBOROUGH
Sitting MP: Bruce Saunders (ALP) since 2015
The ALP won the seat back from the LNP at the 2015 election with the small margin of 1.7%. The PHON candidate James Hansen has a profile through nine years on local government and is currently a councillor with the Fraser Coast Regional Council. Local LNP councillor Rolf Light announced he won’t be a candidate for this seat which leave the LNP yet to nominate a contender for this seat.
Redistribution status: Northern boundary moves further into Hervey Bay, while losing some southern areas to Gympie.
MOUNT OMMANEY
Sitting MP: Tarnya Smith (LNP) since 2012
The LNP member Tanya Smith has held this seat for two terms but on a very close margin of 0.2%. Mount Ommaney is a seat that swings with a change of government. On the redistribution, Antony Green has placed it as a marginally ALP seat. The ALP candidate Jess Pugh is a young mother with contacts into community organisations within the electorate.
Redistribution status: Gains Darra from Inala.
MUNDINGBURRA
Sitting MP: Coralee O’Rourke (ALP) since 2015
Mundingburra in Townsville was picked up by the ALP from LNP Minister David Crisafulli at the 2015 election with a 2.8% margin. With high levels of unemployment, it is expected to be a PHON hotspot. PHON candidate Mal Charwood is a local real estate agent and auctioneer while the LNP’s candidate Matthew Dearlagen recently graduated from law from James Cook University. As yet the KAP have not nominated a candidate for the seat but gained a respectable 23% of the vote in 2012. This is a seat which will go to preferences with a real danger to the LNP of the conservative vote being split. Current Margin: 2.8%
Redistribution status: Thuringowa gains Heatley. From Burdekin, Mundingburra gains Oonoonba and Wulguru .
NICKLIN
Sitting MP: Peter Wellington (IND) since 1998
This seat has been strongly held by retiring member Peter Wellington since 1998 with a current margin of 14.9%. The LNP would be keen to recapture Nicklin and have a strong candidate in Marty Hunt, a local, long serving police officer. Long time resident Steven Ford is the PHON candidate. He is a former Young Nationals office bearer has a background in Australian and international business. He is running on a strong law and order platform
The ALP candidate Justin Raethal is a graduate of the Sunshine Coast University and works in IT at the local College.
Redistribution status: Significant boundary changes with neighbouring electorates.
PUMICESTONE
Sitting MP: Rick Williams (Independent) since 2015
With a margin of 2.1% at the last election, the change in boundaries has made Pumicestone a marginally LNP seat. The ALP member Rick Williams was disendorsed by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on the eve of the election because of his aggressive and bullying treatment of constituents, making him a liability for the ALP. Williams will run as an independent for the seat and the ALP has yet to preselect a new candidate. LNP candidate Simone Wilson works in the finance sector and involved in community activities. while PHON candidate Greg Fahey is local businessman and an ex Shire councillor who is closely involved with the community sector.
Redistribution status: Loses parts of Caboolture to Morayfield.
SOUTHPORT
Sitting MP: Rob Molhoek (LNP) since 2012
Has been held by the LNP for two terms with a current margin of 3.2% but is a seat the ALP are hoping to regain in the election. The ALP candidate for the seat is yet to be advised.
Redistribution status: Southport pushed into parts of what was Surfer’s Paradise by the creation of Bonney between Southport and Broadwater.
SPRINGWOOD
Sitting MP: Mick de Brenni (ALP) since 2015
Springwood is another bellwether seat that changes hands with the change of government. The sitting ALP member and Minister for Housing and Public Works and Minister for Sport Mick de Brenni has alienated many from the community sector with his housing policy. With only a margin of 1.7%, the LNP candidate Julie Dalty, was a high school teacher at Springwood and is a local councillor on the Redland City Council. A seat where the preference flow will be critical in deciding the winner.
Redistribution status: Gains Mount Cotton from Redlands, parts of Cornubia moved into the new electorate of Macalister.
SOUTH BRISBANE
Sitting MP: Jackie Trad (ALP) since 2012
South Brisbane is a safe Labor seat and is currently held by Deputy Premier and Minister for Transport and Minister for Infrastructure and Planning Jackie Trad with a margin of 13.8%. The interest in the seat lies with the strong presence of the Greens who gained nearly 22% of the vote in 2015 and whose candidate Jonathan Sri won the Gabba ward in the Brisbane City Council elections. The Greens candidate Amy MacMahon is a social scientist at the University of Queensland and is campaigning on the development in the seat. The flow of LNP preferences will be critical in determining the next member.
Redistribution status: Minor changes.
TOOWOOMBA NORTH
Sitting MP: Trevor Watts (LNP) since 2012
With a current margin of only 1.6% , Toowoomba North will be a struggle for the LNP to hold. Previous local member for the ALP Kerry Shine is running again. The PHON candidate Paul Wilson works in the insurance industry and was a former Toowoomba Citizen of the Year, though in the past minor parties haven’t had much traction in the seat.
Redistribution status: Unchanged.
TOWNSVILLE
Sitting MP: Scott Stewart (ALP) since 2015
This again is a seat where the preferences will be critical. The ALP have invested a lot of resources in sitting Labor member Scott Stewart who currently has a margin of 5.7%. But high unemployment rates has seen Townsville as a centre for One Nation style dissent and their candidate Allan Evans runs an accountancy practice. However, the LNP remain in the hunt for the seat and their candidate Casey Scott is a broadcast journalist and young mother and will be seeking to improve on the 38% of the vote the LNP gained last time.
Redistribution status: Unchanged
WHITSUNDAY
Sitting MP: Jason Costigan (LNP) since 2012
Held by the LNP for the last three terms but with a slim margin of 0.4%. The ALP candidate Bronwyn Taha works in the hospitality sector. Both PUP and the KAP have done reasonably well in the seat in recent elections and the distribution of preferences will be critical to deciding the winner.
Redistribution status: Loses Glenella to the electorate of Mackay.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
JENNIFER MENZIES
Jenny is Senior Associate in the Policy Innovation Hub at Griffith University. Jenny has over 25 years experience in policy and public administration in both the State and Commonwealth Governments.
As a senior executive within the Queensland Department of the Premier and Cabinet she developed the government’s strategic policy agenda including the Smart State Policy.
She was Cabinet Secretary from 2001 to 2004 and the inaugural Secretary for the Council for the Australian Federation from 2007 to 2009 and a member of the Commonweath Grants Commission 2011 -2016. She publishes in the fields of caretaker conventions, federalism and intergovernmental relations.
DR TRACEY ARKLAY
Tracey Arklay is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University and a Research Fellow with Griffith’s Centre for Governance and Public Policy.
Tracey is the author of Arthur Fadden: A Political Silhouette (Australian Scholarly Publishing, 2015) and co-author of The Ayes Have It: A History of the Queensland Parliament 1957–89 (ANU Press, 2010).
PROFESSOR ANNE TIERNAN
Anne Tiernan is Dean (Engagement) in Griffith Business School (GBS) and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub at Griffith University.
Professor Tiernan’s research focuses on the work of governing. Her scholarly interests include: Australian politics and governance, policy advice, executive studies, policy capacity, federalism and intergovernmental coordination. She has written extensively on the political-administrative interface, caretaker conventions, governmental transitions and the work of policy advising.
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