2020 Queensland Election
Seats to Watch
by Jenny Menzies, Dr Tracey Arklay, Dr Elise Stephenson, Professor Susan Harris Rimmer and Professor Juliet Pietsch
The Policy Innovation Hub at Griffith University has assembled Australia’s best political scientists and policy researchers to identify the electorates we believe will shape the outcome of the 2020 Queensland Election.
Alphabetically, these are:
ASPLEY
Held by Labor by a margin of 1.2%.
Sitting MP
Bart Mellish since 2017. Swinging seat.
The electorate of Aspley covers outer northern parts of Brisbane and includes the suburbs of Aspley, Bridgeman Downs, Carseldine and parts of Bald Hills, McDowall, Zillmere and Geebung. The seat includes some strong Liberal voting areas and has been won by the Liberal National Party (LNP) in 6 of 10 elections.
The seat was won by Australian Labor Party’s (ALP) Bart Mellish in 2017 after the Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP) received a -10.3% swing against them. With five candidates running — Bart Mellish (ALP), Amanda Cooper (LNP) a former Brisbane City Councilor from 2007–2019 — are frontrunners. Cooper is campaigning on for an electorate that, she says, has been ‘starved of infrastructure projects, lack of investments in the local community’. Cooper and the LNP are campaigning for an Beams Road/Gympie Road overpass which they claim will cut traffic time and help local business.
Though marginal, this seat is a must hold for Labor to return to the government benches.
BARRON RIVER
Held by Labor by a margin of 1.9%
Sitting MP
Craig Crawford since 2015.
The electorate of Barron River covers the northern parts of Cairns including Stratford, Smithfield, and Kuranda and travels through the coastal corridor from Yorkeys Knob to Palm Cove. First contested at the 1972 election it has been held by both the ALP and the National Party.
Barron River has gone to preferences at every election since 1992, with both ALP and LNP experiencing swings against them in 2017 (by -6.0% and -10.4% respectively). Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, on the other hand, received a major +16.8% boost, with the Queensland Greens also experiencing a boost of +2.2% in 2017.
There are no One Nation Party candidates contesting the election this year, and Labor only holds the seat by 1.9%. Former Cairns Regional Councilor Linda Cooper is the LNP candidate with Jenny Brown (Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party) — who ran unsuccessfully for the federal Brisbane seat of Moreton in 2019 — and the single issue Informed Medical Options Party leader Adam Muir is also contesting. The Queensland Greens candidate is Aaron McDonald.
A classic bellwether seat and definitely one to watch on election night.
BURLEIGH
Held by LNP by a margin of 4.9%.
Sitting MP
Michael Hart since 2012.
Burleigh is a southern Gold Coast electorate carved from the electoral boundary redraws of 1992. While it has been held by the LNP candidate Michael Hart for the past three terms, it is now contested by a large line-up of candidates and one particularly famous local is the ALP candidate, three-time world surfing champion Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew. In the last election, the LNP, ALP and Greens all experienced a swing in their favor (+3.9%, +3.2% and +5.2%, respectively).
The combination of rising environmentalism, concerns over Labor’s handling of the pandemic border closures, and also the introduction of a strong ALP candidate in the form of a popular surfing legend, this will make this seat the subject of a hotly contested race.
CLAYFIELD
Held by LNP by a margin of 2.4%.
Sitting MP
Tim Nicholls since 2006.
Clayfield runs along the northern bank of the Brisbane River and Enoggera Creek and has been a majority LNP seat for most of its history. It was won by the ALP in the Beatie landslides of 2001 and 2004, but has been held by Tim Nicholls since 2006.
In the 2017 election, the LNP had a 4.8% swing against them, while the ALP gained a small swing of 0.6% in votes. Nicholls, who was Opposition Leader at the time, will now will have more time to devote to the seat. It is worth noting that in 2017 the Queensland Greens recorded a substantial swing of +7.3% in votes.
Former Greens senator for Queensland Andrew Bartlett is running as is the ALPs Philip Anthony for a second time. Clayfield will be a test of whether Premier Palaszczuk’s handling of the coronavirus will translate to votes.
EVERTON
Held by LNP by a margin of 4.9%
Sitting MP
Tim Mander since 2012.
Straddling the border between Brisbane City Council and Moreton Bay Regional Council, the seat of Everton was established in 1972 and was initially an ALP seat. Former rugby league referee Tim Mander has held the seat since 2012. While it has a 4.9% margin and despite a-4.2% swing against the ALP in 2017, the electorate is likely to respond positively to the Premier’s handling of Coronavirus. Making this seat one to watch as we see how Mander competes against ALP’s Danielle Shankey and a host of candidates across The Greens, the Informed Medical Options Party, Legalise Cannabis QLD, and Palmer’s United Australia Party.
GAVEN
Held by Labor by a margin of 0.9%.
Sitting MP
Meaghan Scanlon since 2017.
Gaven is a relatively new hinterland electorate in the north of the Gold Coast, established in 2001. Gaven was Labor’s only Gold Coast victory at the 2017 election and it remains Labor’s second most marginal seat. Prior to 2017 the seat was held by LNP. ALP’s Meaghan Scanlon, the Assistant Minister for Tourism Industry Development, returns as ALP candidate in 2020. Scanlon is an industrial relations lawyer and former advisor to ALP Queensland Senator Murray Watt. LNP candidate Kirsten Jackson is an accountant and community volunteer, she is joined by candidates from Queensland Green’s, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, Legalise Cannabis QLD, and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
This field of candidates indicates will make a difficult hold for Labor a near impossible one.
KEPPEL
Held by Labor by a margin of 3.1%.
Sitting MP
Brittany Lauga since 2015.
The electorate of Keppel was created in 1992 and incorporates Yeppoon, Emu Park, Byfield and surrounding coastal resorts and agricultural areas. The electorate was held by the National Party’s Vince Lester until 2004 when it fell to the ALP. It has returned to the LNP only once in the last 16 years.
In the 2017 election, both ALP and LNP received swings against them (by -0.8% and -15% respectively), as opposed to a massive 25.5% swing in favour of One Nation. In 2020, former Brisbane Bronco and One Nation Party candidate Wade Rothery is incumbent Brittany Lauga’s biggest opponent.
MANSFIELD
Held by Labor by a margin of 1.6%.
Sitting MP
Corrine McMillan since 2017.
The seat of Mansfield covers the string of outer south-east Brisbane suburbs including Wishart and Mansfield. It was first contested at the 1972 and has been variably held between the Liberal Party, National Party and ALP. Both Labor and the LNP experienced swings against them in 2017 in favour of the Queensland Greens and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.
Former Principal of Cavendish Road State High School, Corrine McMillan (ALP) is up against Janet Wishart (LNP), Rob Walter (Greens) and Brendan Taylor (Legalise Cannabis QLD).
MUNDINGBURRA
Held by Labor by a margin of 1.1%.
Sitting MP
Coralee O’Rourke since 2015.
Mundingburra covers southern parts of Townsville along both banks of the Ross River, and was first contested in 1912, briefly abolished in 1920 and revived in 1992. Since then, it has been held by Labor by all but two terms.
Now Labor’s third most marginal seat, Mundingburra is even more precarious for Labor with the resignation of the sitting member Coralee O’Rourke due to ill health. New ALP candidate, Les Walker, is a former Townsville City Councilor who works with adult offenders in the corrections system. The LNP candidate is former senior police officer Glenn Doyle. Both major parties are vulnerable to swings against them by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party and Katter’s Australia Party. With Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party also in the mix and with a strong law and order campaign being run by the LNP, Mundingburra is a potential loss for the ALP.
PUMICESTONE
Held by LNP by a margin of .8%.
Sitting MP
Simone Wilson since 2017.
The most northern of the Moreton Bay Regional Council electorates, Pumicestone was established in 2001 and includes the retirement haven of Bribie Island and parts of Caboolture, and the locales of Sandstone Point, Donnybrook and Beachmere.
Incumbent Simone Wilson is retiring, putting the LNP’s 0.8% hold in a precarious position, particularly given the ALP-dominated history of the seat. Former Deputy Mayor of Balonne Shire, Fiona Gaske , is the new LNP candidate, with Ali King running for the ALP, Richard Odgen is the Queensland Greens candidate, along with Ross Konowalenko (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party)and Steven Newbery (Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party) contesting.
For an electorate largely satisfied with the incumbent government’s COVID-19 response, increasing concern around environmental issues and historical electoral instability — with constituents voting in their fourth new MP in as many terms — will all work to make this seat an interesting one to watch as the LNP hangs on by a thread.
SOUTH BRISBANE
Held by Labor by a margin of 3.6%.
Sitting MP
Jackie Trad since an April 2012 by-election.
South Brisbane covers the inner southern suburbs of Brisbane directly opposite the Brisbane CBD and is Queensland’s smallest electorate at 12 square kilometers. It has been considered a Labor safe seat for an incredible 105 years, only lost by the party on three occasions. It was former Premier Anna Bligh’s seat from 1995–2012 and has been held by Deputy Premier Jackie Trad since the 2012 by-election.
The seat has become marginal for a number of reasons. The sitting member has been caught up in a two integrity scandals — though no findings were found against her. The inner-city seat is also likely to vote against the coal policies of the Labor government.
The LNP is running candidate Clem Grehan, a former surveyor and project manager, but Trad’s main opposition is the Queensland Greens’ candidate Amy MacMahon. MacMahon, has worked for environmental and humanitarian organisations and contested the 2017 election generating a 11.7% swing to her. Jackie Trad hung on through a preference flows from the LNP but realising their error have placed her at the bottom of their how to vote card.
With the Greens already holding this seat in the Brisbane City Council, the Greens are confident of finally winning this Labor prize.
THURINGOWA
Held by Labor by a margin of 4.1%.
Sitting MP
Aaron Harper since 2015.
Thuringowa is one of a trio of difficult seats for Labor in Townsville. Voters swung against both Labor and the LNP in 2017 (by -8.9% and -13% respectively), whereas Hanson’s One Nation Party and Katter’s Australia Party gained a +14.3% and +15.6% swing, respectively.
The sitting member Aaron Harper will have his work cut out for him against — especially with a low primary vote of only 32.2% at the 2017 election — the LNP candidate is former Townsville City Councilor Natalie Marr. With no Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party candidate running at this election, Katter’s Australia Party references will be vital, but Thuringowa is unlikely to change hands.
TOWNSVILLE
Held by Labor by a margin of 0.4%.
Sitting MP
Scott Stewart since 2015.
Townsville is currently held by former teacher and current Deputy Speaker, Scott Stewart. Stewart was first elected in 2015, gaining Townsville for Labor, and was narrowly re-elected in 2017. Though the seat has been held by Labor for all but six of the last 26 terms, it is now the party’s most marginal seat, currently on a 0.4% margin after a 5.3% swing to the LNP last election. The LNP candidate John Hathaway, served with the Australian Army for nearly three decades and won the seat for the LNP in 2012. Eight candidates have nominated for the seat, including former Australian rugby leader player Greg Dowling (Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party) and former public servant Joshua Schwarz for the Katter Australia Party.
With law and order being positioned as a major election issue in North Queensland combined with the likely preference flow, it is difficult to see a pathway for Labor to hold this seat.
MAIWAR
Held by the Queensland Greens by a margin of 1.6%.
Sitting MP
Michael Berkman since 2017.
Maiwar was first contested in 2017, being formed from parts of the abolished seats of Mt Coot-tha and Indooroopilly during electoral boundary redistributions. Queensland Greens incumbent, Michael Berkman, won the seat after a close three-way contest. In 2020, he will contest the seat with Labor candidate Palani Thevar and LNP candidate Lauren Day. Berkman’s win in 2017 made him the first Greens MP in Queensland history, with a margin of 3.2% on the LNP for the two-party preferred vote but only 0.3% on Labor for the primary vote.
This narrow victory makes Maiwar a marginal seat for the 2020 election. However, incumbent status in a field of new candidates, combined with some high-profile politicking — most notably his active involvement with the successful community campaign against the controversial Mt Coot-tha zipline development proposal — may see Berkman in good stead.
McCONNEL
Held by Labor by a margin of 7.9%.
Sitting MP
Grace Grace since 2007 at by-election. Defeated in 2012, re-elected in 2015.
Formerly known as Brisbane Central, McConnel is a wildcard for this election. It has traditionally been a Labor-dominated seat, until the Campbell Newman landslide of 2012 but returned to Labor at the 2015 election. However, like many central Brisbane areas, the Queensland Greens have been polling strongly and at the 2017 election recorded a larger than anticipated +7.8% swing, compared to a -5.5% against the LNP and a -2.5% against the ALP. ALP’s incumbent Grace Grace is up against the LNP’s Pinky Singh, the Greens’ Kirsten Lovejoy and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party’s Malcolm Wood.
Gentrification and a strong Greens presence places this seat on a must watch list for election night.
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