Addressing the Elephant in the Room
Where to from here for the Republican Party?
by Jacob Deem
Staff and students of Griffith University’s School of Government and International Relations gathered to watch the unfolding results of the US Presidential Election on Wednesday morning (Australian time). It was a chance to witness the bastion of Western democracy in action, and perhaps provide a cathartic release from the bitterness of the long campaign. As the election map slowly filled with Republican red, however, the mood became subdued. Rarely has a room full of academics been so quiet.
Donald Trump’s win has global reverberations — its implications and nuances will be the subject of plenty of debate in coming days. One issue that may slip under the radar, however, is the ramifications this election campaign will have for the Republican Party. Before the election, this was a concern that was very much in the foreground: how would the Republicans recover from the divisive effect Mr Trump had on the Party?
In his opening comments to the viewing party, Associate Professor Wesley Widmaier noted the split in the Republican Party on identity politics between fiscal conservatives like House Speaker Paul Ryan and social conservatives like Trump. While Widmaier believed that the split would worsen following a Trump loss, the unexpected Trump victory does not mean that the intra-party tensions will fade as the Republican party seeks to define its identity as it moves from the Reagan into the Trump era.
Widmaier was certainly not alone in recognising that the Republican Party was due for some post-election soul searching. What has taken many by surprise, however, is the nature of that soul searching; Trump’s victory adds a new dimension. Instead of trying to salvage a sinking Party before the next election, Republicans must now produce some brand of effective governance. And with so many concerns suddenly rising to the fore (Trump’s divisive, prejudiced campaign style, his unrealistic foreign policy aspirations, his lack of experience in public office, to name but a few), it is easy to lose sight of the wounds within the Party this election has caused.
It was only a few weeks ago that Republicans were distancing themselves from Mr Trump. After the now-infamous 2005 tape was leaked on 8 October, Paul Ryan controversially declared that he could no longer defend Trump. And while Mr Trump had always been unpopular with the Republican establishment, the fallout from the leaked tape caused members of Congress, party officials, and even former Presidents to abandon Trump in droves. True to form, Mr Trump was quick to fire back on Twitter, labelling Paul Ryan a ‘weak and ineffective leader’, and claiming that ‘Disloyal R’s’ were more difficult than Hillary Clinton, and that ‘They don’t know how to win — I will teach them!’
As the shock of the election result sinks in, it seems that Mr Trump may have indeed taught them. But what the cost? The coming days and weeks will reveal how deep the fractures in the Republican Party run. Was the distancing from Trump simply a political decision by Congressional candidates and other Republicans in damage control seeking to minimise the ‘Trump effect’? Or are there real differences of opinions and values here?
The issue is significant because of the implications it has for the way a Trump presidency will take shape. Importantly, on top of winning the race for President, the Republicans also retained control of Congress, with majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The American system of government has a preoccupation for limiting individual power that borders on paranoia (the Founding Fathers were, after all, running as far as they could from anything that resembled a monarchy). Congress, especially the Senate, is generally seen as an important check against presidential power. President Obama was plagued by an obstinate, and at times outright hostile, Congress. Had he been gifted with a situation as favourable as the one in which Trump finds himself, President Obama could have been far more successful in his reform agenda, particularly on controversial issues such as gun control, abortion, and marriage equality.
Conversely, the prospect of a Trump presidency, backed by a Republican Congress, and with a majority of Republican-controlled State legislatures, is truly terrifying. This assumes, however, that Mr Trump deserves, and will receive, the support of his fellow Republicans. These are, after all, many of the Republicans Trump labelled as ‘self-righteous hypocrites’. Undoubtedly, some of the Republicans who fled for the lifeboats on the (then) sinking S.S. Trump did so for purely political reasons — will return to fold quickly.
Others, however, may still have genuine reservations about the kind future Trump desires for America as he makes it great again. In an electorate that is ‘scared’ by the prospect of a Trump presidency, it may fall to Republicans in the Senate to protect America, and indeed the world, from some of Trump’s wilder ideas. It will be up to them to uphold the ideals of the separation of powers doctrine, and the ideals that underpin America’s anti-monarchical political system — Trump has not yet declared himself king of the world, but I give no guarantees on this front.
At the same time, Trump must recognise the hurt he has caused within the party, and reconcile these differences. Elsewhere in The Machinery of Government, Professor John Kane (who also lent his considerable expertise to the Griffith viewing party) noted that:
In their respective post-election speeches, Paul Ryan and Donald Trump both (briefly) acknowledged the need to begin a process of unification. What was unclear, however, was how much this call was aimed at Democrats and the American people as a whole, and how much was directed at the Republican Party itself.
Does Trump expect a Republican Congress to act as a rubber stamp for his will, or can he mature enough to accept the role the legislature plays in the separation of powers doctrine? And conversely, will the Republicans in Congress be strong enough to stand up to Trump, when necessary, if it is in the best interests of the American people for them to do so? Or will they simply fall into line behind the man who carried the election for them, against all odds?
They say time heals all wounds, but is January far enough away to forgive the hurts of Trump’s fiery orations and Twitter salvoes? When Mr Trump takes up the mantle of the 45th President of the United States, will he, and the Republican Party, be ready to provide rational, steady governance? Once again, I think Trump will keep us in suspense.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
JACOB DEEM
Jacob is a PhD candidate in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University.
His research explores public attitudes towards the principle of ‘subsidiarity’ and the workings of federal systems of government. Jacob’s keen interest in all things federalism led him to work with his supervisors, Professor AJ Brown and Associate Professor Robyn Hollander, on Griffith University’s Constitutional Values Surveys.
