Advance Australia Where?
A strategy for the end of the American Century
by Professor Ian Hall
The report in the Washington Post that President Donald Trump berated Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull over the refugee settlement deal and angrily ended their phone call has rightly caused consternation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Inevitably, it has also brought the Australia-United States defence alliance under scrutiny once more, but if one positive thing could come out of all the turmoil of the first few days of this Presidency, it might be that Australians start to think more creatively — and not just along the well-worn lines laid out in the last few years — about its interests and how to secure and extend them.
The first is that the relationship with the United States is hard to break. It is unlikely — though, in a sign of the times, we also have to recognise that it is far from impossible — the US would abrogate the ANZUS Treaty or cut Australia out of the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence sharing arrangements. Nor is the level of US investment into Australia likely to diminish anytime soon, unless a major economic crisis occurs. And nor will all the close people-to-people ties between the Australian and American political, business, and military elites.
The second is that the infamous ‘China Choice’ was never a choice in the first place. It would be nigh on impossible for Australia to build with China the kind of relationship it has with the US, even if Canberra was willing to toe Beijing’s line on Taiwan, the South China Sea, human rights and Tibet. An Australia-China alliance that promised mutual assistance in times of war is inconceivable; an intelligence sharing deal with Beijing mostly worthless to Canberra. Of course, there is two-way trade, but this has grown without any need to build closer political or military ties, and — interestingly — it has not generated anything like the scale or intimacy of elite people-to-people links.
Where does that leave Australia, in a world in which ‘America First’ means setting aside a liberal order — imperfect though it certainly is — built up, in layers, since 1945, and replacing it with transactional, mercantilist, sphere of influence, great power politics.
Clearly, Australia’s interests lie in a stable and secure Indo-Pacific. Equally clearly, trying to achieve this as some want, with a Kissingerian grand bargain in which the US and China ‘share power’ across the region, is neither realistic nor in Australia’s interests.
There is a reason why a US-China ‘condominium’ is feared in New Delhi and Tokyo, not to mention Taipai: the interests of small and middle powers are the currency of that kind of deal-making.
Australia’s best strategy is not to persuade Washington into that kind of compromise. It needs instead to make it clear that such a bargain would be very costly to deliver. It needs to deepen its defence and security relationships with states in the region that understand that their autonomy, not to mention their economic prosperity and national security, is at stake — especially India, Japan, and Singapore.
Alliances are not needed, but broader and deeper strategic partnerships that share strategic assessments and intelligence, while building far greater understanding of respective strategic outlooks, are needed, together with the means to allow forces to operate effectively in coalition.
Australia needs to take defence spending seriously and acquire the capabilities necessary to inflict sufficient damage to potential adversaries to make them think twice about military conflict — and encourage the likeminded to do the same. It needs also to talk frankly with its neighbours to the north, to ASEAN member-states that once sought to keep the great powers out of South East Asia — joining together to preserve their individual autonomy, about the need to better balance economic and security interests.
And above all, Australia has got to have a free and frank conversation about what interests and values it wants to uphold — and then to devise a long-term strategy to try to achieve them.
Muddling through, fudging decisions, hiding behind slogans and bureaucratise, under-investing, running through several Defence Ministers every government, hoping for the best, riding our luck…and Washington’s coat tails, and making every choice the subject of partisan posturing — all cannot stand any longer. Canberra needs to learn how to lead — here, and in collaboration with the like-minded in our region — and learn fast.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
PROFESSOR IAN HALL
Ian Hall is Professor in the School of Government and International Relations, Acting Director of the Griffith Asia Institute and member of the Centre for Governance and Public Policy at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia.
His research interests include the history of international thought and Indian foreign policy. He has published a number of books and articles in these areas, and is currently working on an ARC-funded Discovery project on the evolution of Indian thinking about international relations since 1964. He currently sits on the editorial boards of Asian Politics and Policy, the Australian Journal of International Affairs, and International Relations. He currently teaches courses on India’s Rise and on Terrorism.
Follow The Machinery of Government
