Queensland Election 2015
Thoughts on Week 2
So the battle begins…
After the initial surprise of Premier Newman’s announcement of the 31 January election, Week two of the campaign became oddly dull as both leaders concentrated on seats in the State’s far north and studiously avoided debates about policy. It seemed ‘Operation Boring’ — the campaign strategy to soften the government’s style in the wake of the 19.7% swing in the Stafford by-election might be set to continue.
Labor is targetting the seats of Barron River, Cook and Cairns and aiming to retain the seat of Mulgrave, held by Shadow Treasurer, Curtis Pitt by a margin of just 1.1%. Further south they’re hoping to secure the seats of Townsville and Thuringowa and others along the Mackay-Whitsunday and Capricorn coasts. The LNP, which is polling poorly in Queensland’s north, is attempting to stave off threats from independents and the minor parties.
The Issues
The economy and unemployment
The economy and jobs emerged as the biggest issues for voters. The LNP’s claim to be the better economic manager was endorsed by an exclusive Newspoll in the Weekend Australian. Despite public perception of the LNP’s general management having been severely diminished, in relation to economic management, the polling data shows a 19 point lead over Labor in 2012 has since widened to 21 points.
High rates of unemployment — which stood at 6.6% in Treasury’s December Mid-Year Review (downwardly revised from 6.9%) continues to pose a risk for the government and is in direct contrast to Campbell Newman’s 2012 campaign promise nominating 4% unemployment as his government’s target.
The LNP had a reprieve when ABS data released on 15 January showed that unemployment had fallen in December 2014 to be 6.1% (seasonally adjusted). The trend rate of 6.6% remains 0.4% higher than the national average, but lower than Victoria (6.7%) and Tasmania (6.8%).
Labor has linked higher rates of unemployment to the Newman government’s spending cuts, particularly to the public sector and continued to focus on regional and youth unemployment and the lack of training opportunities for low-skilled workers with the slowdown in mining.
The unexpected improvement in the figures provided a campaign boost to the Premier and Treasurer Tim Nicholls, who spent much of Friday spruiking the benefits of the LNP’s ‘Strong Plan’ and the job creation opportunities that would flow from $8.6B in ‘economic value-add’ infrastructure investments funded from the proceeds of asset leases.
While debt and economic management continue to monopolise the election discussion, both parties have stretched credulity with the promise of no new taxes. The LNP has promised to lift the payroll tax threshold progressively over the next three years from $1.1 to $1.4 million, as part of its strategy to reduce the cost to business and make Queensland ‘the most competitive state in Australia to run a business’. This announcement might relate to data from the State Budget 2014–15 Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review, which indicates modest revenue growth and risks to Queensland’s revenue outlook as a result of declining investment from the resource sector.
Labor has also promised no new taxes, announcing it would establish a ‘Debt Reduction Trust’. Two-thirds of the annual profits from the retention of state-owned assets and a amalgamation of electricity distributors, Ergon, Energex and Powerlink, as well as CS Energy and Stanwell, would be used to pay down general government debt over ten years.
Queensland’s royalties revenues have declined significantly as coal prices have plummeted. We can expect too that there will be cuts to programs in the Federal Budget that will flow on to big service delivery systems like health, education, transport and importantly, in Queensland, natural disaster relief and recovery. These may be considered in the context of the White Paper on Federal Reform and the factored into the forward estimates. Either way, the next Queensland government faces pressures on both the expenditure and revenue sides of the ledger.
The Leadership
The leadership question has followed the Premier into week two of the campaign. Campbell Newman continues to confronted questions about who would succeed him as Premier if he loses his marginal seat of Ashgrove.
A ReachTEL poll for Channel 7 on 13 January showed Newman trailing his opponent Kate Jones in Ashgrove. She drew last place on the ballot paper for the 31 January poll and has maintained a low profile during the first two weeks of the campaign.
Polling data about the seat of Ashgrove indicates Labor’s Kate Jones holds a slim lead over the Premier. But LNP sources report they are growing more confident Newman can retain his seat (Brisbane Times 2015).
The Premier announced a package of spending promises in his inner-western suburbs seat and is hoping his higher profile and record in the electorate since 2012 will offset his need to travel away from Ashgrove as he campaigns around the state.
The battle for Ashgrove has been surprisingly low-key. Kate Jones launched her campaign on Sunday, supported by popular, high-profile federal colleague Tanya Plibersek.
Other Policy Announcements
The LNP’s policy focus for the week was infrastructure investment associated with its Strong Choices plan, which is predicated on revenues from the leasing of state-owned assets.
Labor released its much-anticipated Economic Plan, centred on the promises of no new taxes or mass dismissals of government workers. Specific costings for the $620 million in election promises have not been released, instead the Labor party has focused on promoting how they would pay off $12 billion in debt over 10 years through the revenue generated from merging state-owned power assets.
The axing of the federal government’s policy to introduce $20 cuts to the Medicare rebate for short doctors’ visits, was a welcome announcement for the LNP. There was significant concern that the cuts would cause voter backlash at the ballot box as was the case in Victoria with the petrol tax increase. Liberal candidate for the seat of Griffith in 2013 and 2014 and former Australian Medical Association President, Bill Glasson urged Prime Minister Tony Abbott to dump the unpopular policy. However media reports suggested it was the dissention among backbenchers and the former cabinet minister Mal Brough’s threat to publicly denounce the policy that resulted in the backflip (SMH 2015).
Independent Senator Jacqui Lambie released a video message urging Queenslanders to preference the LNP last on election day to send “Tony Abbott and his Liberal National Party mates” a strong message about the treatment of Australia’s defence personnel.
“If the Prime Minister Abbott and his Liberal and National parties in Canberra don’t deliver a fair pay rise of 1.5% by the 31st of January, then it’s fair enough to punish Mr Abbott, Premier Newman and the QLD LNP in a way that really hurts — at the ballot box in a democratic way.” (Jacqui Lambie, 2015).
Style of Campaigning
The Liberal National Party campaign looked the better organised and coordinated this week. Early warning about the summer poll enabled it to quickly deploy campaign materials and a well-funded advertising campaign. The LNP has focused on state issues, distancing itself from federal concerns. Prime Minister and Coalition federal ministers, save for Deputy PM Warren Truss, have been noticeably absent from the Queensland campaign and did not attend the LNP campaign launch on Sunday.
With fewer staff and resources, Annastacia Palaszczuk started the week looking tired and occasionally, frustrated. While unveiling her party’s alternative economic plans for the state, Palaszczuk was forced to rebut claims that she needed Federal Labor leader Bill Shorten, who spent the week on the hustings in Queensland, to hold her hand. Shorten’s appearances with Palazsczuk, and his Deputy Tanya Plibersek’s appearance at Kate Jones’ campaign launch suggest the federal party is trying to bolster the State division, which has struggled for funding and support since its devastating defeat in 2012.
Both Labor and the LNP have ruled out the prospect of forming a minority government, saying they will refuse to negotiate with the minor parties and independents and have urged voters to give a clear result and avoid delivering a hung parliament.
The latest Newspoll published in The Weekend Australian predicts a state-wide swing of around 10.1% against the LNP, which if correct puts a number of government ministers at risk. In North Queensland, unemployment and a voter backlash relating to the federal government’s unpopular defence pay deal is threatening the LNP sitting minister David Crisafulli in the seat of Mundingburra.
Wild Card Award
Queensland PUP leader John Bjelke-Petersen caused a stir at the party’s launch, which was notable for the absence of party founder Clive Palmer. The son of former Premier Sir Joh criticised the Newman government, claiming that “absolute power corrupts absolutely”. Journalist Patrick Condren retweeted his comment with the addendum: “he’d know”.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
ANNE TIERNAN
Anne Tiernan is a Professor in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University. Professor Tiernan’s research focuses on the work of governing.
Her scholarly interests include: Australian politics and governance, policy advice, executive studies, policy capacity, federalism and intergovernmental coordination. She has written extensively on the political-administrative interface, caretaker conventions, governmental transitions and the work of policy advising.
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