From Election to Resolution
#ausvotes
by Jerath Head
Between Saturday’s federal election and the recommencement of vote counting this week, a lot of noise has been made over the seats still in doubt and the likelihood of a hung parliament. With over 1 million postal, interstate and other declaration votes still being tallied, along with any ordinary pre-poll votes as yet unaccounted for, there is a great degree of uncertainty in predicting the outcome.
Postal votes can be received in an electorate up to 13 days after a federal election, and in addition to the parallel scrutiny of votes already counted yesterday, it could be weeks before a final result is reached.
The State of Play
Currently, the Australian Electoral Commission has the Coalition leading in 67 House of Representative seats, and the ALP in 68. Adjusted for the seats that are on a knife’s edge but with one of the major parties leading, those numbers are 70 for the Coalition and 71 for Labor.
While the ABC’s seat count shows a discrepancy to the AEC’s, using the electoral commission’s methods and accounting for its seats ‘not yet determined’ the Coalition would sit on 73 seats and Labor on 72, and the Greens 1, Nick Xenophon Team 1, Katter’s Australia Party 1, and Independents 2 — a hung parliament.
This seems to be the most likely outcome. Malcolm Turnbull has expressed his quiet confidence in a majority once postal and other votes are counted, but this is informed by the assumption that such voters are likely to favour incumbent members — and thus vote predominantly Liberal. However, if the nationwide 3.7% swing towards Labor and the strength of the minor parties in this election is indicative of anything, it’s that such assumptions can’t be relied on.
Hung parliament redux
Despite a distinct air of media panic since polling day, the event of a hung parliament is not at all unique, particularly at the state level. Two recent examples — the 2010 federal election and the 2015 Queensland election — shed light on what can be expected between now and the realisation of a much speculated hung parliament.
In the 2010 federal election, neither major party was able to secure a majority. This instance of hung parliament saw seventeen days between the election and when Julia Gillard was able to form a minority government. During this time, she had to secure support on supply and confidence from four cross benchers in the House of Representatives to secure the 76-seats needed to form government. In this instance, as might be expected this time in Canberra, shows the advantages of incumbency.
The 2015 Queensland state election saw a similarly ambiguous outcome. Then Opposition Leader, Annastacia Palaszczuk demonstrated superior negotiation skills to eventually secure the numbers needed to form a minority government.
In a speech marking twelve months in office, Queensland Governor Paul de Jersey detailed what he saw in this process as a positive test of the state’s constitutional arrangements. Most important was open and measured communication between himself and the party leaders, and the observation of conventions — essential for effective management in a hung parliament, given there are no explicit constitutional provisions.
What now?
Assuming conventions are respected, it’s likely that Malcolm Turnbull has already informed the Governor-General, Sir Peter Cosgrove, of the Liberal Party’s intention to enter a Coalition government with the Nationals. Contrary to Bill Shorten’s posturing, it is also unlikely that Turnbull will call a snap election before Parliament has had a chance to meet.
If it comes down to courting crossbench support, the Coalition has a better chance of forming government. It has the advantage of incumbency and support is more likely to be forthcoming from three of the five crossbenchers who will hold the balance of power — Cathy McGowan, Bob Katter and Nick Xenophon. Despite Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt ruling out deals with either major party, history would indicate they are more inclined to support a Labor government. Though, on current numbers, this wouldn’t secure a majority for the ALP.
Whatever the outcome, this is not uncharted territory, and certainly not as chaotic as is speculated — there are tried-and-tested processes to follow, and (assumedly) a Governor-General watching very closely.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
JERATH HEAD
Jerath Head is part of the editorial team at Griffith Review. Jerath is a Master’s student at the University of Queensland, and has worked as a freelance writer and editor in Australia and Ireland.
