Gearing up for COAG 2015
by Dr Tracey Arklay
TODAY, FRIDAY 17 APRIL 2015, sees First Ministers and their officials travel to Canberra for what is likely to be a feisty first meeting of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) for 2015.
Tasmanian Premier, Will Hodgman has warned the Prime Minister that yielding to pressure from Western Australia to change the basis on which GST revenues are distributed, risks ‘tearing at the heart of our federation’. WA premier, Colin Barnett, currently the longest serving leader on COAG, will hold firm to the view that the basis for determining WA’s slice of the GST pie, calculated when mining royalties were at record highs, should be reconsidered in the wake of a dramatically lowered iron ore price.
Despite their differences, all other states are likely to band together to put the countervailing view that they have adjusted to changing circumstances in the past, under the three year averaging formula used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission, and that WA should do the same now.
South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill claims his Western Australian counterpart, and members of Federal Cabinet who support Barnett’s stance, are being unfair. He argues that having benefitted from price averaging as iron ore prices rose, WA should not be allowed to change the rules at the expense of other jurisdictions, which commodity prices fall.
COAG has long courted controversy. It has become an arena for obligatory, almost ritualised, conflict — along jurisdictional rather than partisan lines. Recently deposed Queensland premier Campbell Newman described it as a ‘dysfunctional farce’. Others have noted that COAG’s influence has waxed and waned depending on the priorities of the Prime Minister of the day. At times, for example under Kevin Rudd’s leadership, it was seriously overburdened while at other times — in the early years of the Howard government, it met infrequently. Many scholars (and a good many premiers, chief ministers and their senior officials) believe the ad hoc approach to intergovernmental negotiation, which reflects the preferences of the Prime Minister of the day, that inhibits COAG’s effectiveness.
An ironic and under-reported point to note is that GST distribution won’t be on the COAG agenda. It is not a COAG issue. The Grants Commission will make its report to the Treasurer with a recommendation for distribution for the next financial year. It is then up to the Treasurer, in consultation with the State treasurers to accept the recommendation. Abbott is trying to confuse the issue by saying the States have to work it out themselves. The distribution is solely a Commonwealth decision.
Moreover, two White Papers that directly address the issue of revenue (White Paper on Taxation) and federal financial relations and the state of Australian federalism (White Paper on Reform of the Federation) are currently in development. It seems strange that these processes, initiated and managed by the federal government have featured so little in analysis and commentary about the dynamics of today’s meeting. In this context, the Prime Minister’s comments and those of senior ministers including Scott Morrison, that the method of GST distribution is a matter for the states to solve, are particularly perplexing. The Social Services Minister urged his state and territory counterparts ‘to put their political differences aside’ and sort this out.
Oh to have been a fly on the wall at the Leaders’ dinner last night and in the formal meeting today!
That not insubstantial provocation and others from the mouths of his Cabinet colleagues may provide one of the few moments of solidarity among subnational leaders.
So who are the players at tomorrow’s meeting? There is a mix of old and new faces among the Premiers and their officials. Together they bring with them a mix of experience, across jurisdictions and the public and private sectors. The following table lists the participants in order of length of office.
One thing seems certain in relation to Friday’s meeting. The states and territories, regardless of the party in power, are likely to hold the line on the position WA finds itself in. They have other issues to deal with, including funding for new infrastructure and seeking reinstatement of $80b in funding for health and education cut from the forward estimates in the 2014–15 federal budget.
The leaders attending the COAG meeting know and understand the rules of the game that is intergovernmental relations in Australia. They know that they must play to a domestic constituency, while also being seen to operate in the national interest. Even the neophyte Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, attending her first COAG meeting, will have been told about the ‘dark arts’ — the repertoire of posturing, habits and tricks that each jurisdiction (particularly the Commonwealth, but they all do it) will deploy at political and bureaucratic levels an effort to secure an outcome most advantageous (or least disadvantageous) to their own position.
First ministers will be supported by a group of experienced senior officials. Not much is known publicly about the central agency heads who support their respective governments at these meetings. The following bios suggest that, as a group, they bring years of experience and sound advice to the task of advising their respective leaders.
Who are they? In chronological order based on the length of time in office of their leaders they are:
- Peter Conran from WA who has served as director-general of the Department of the Premier and Cabinet under Colin Barnett since 2008. A former head of John Howard’s Cabinet Policy Unit, Conran has cross-jurisdictional experience, having served in the Northern Territory, WA and in the Commonwealth. He is well versed in the jockeying for attention that is part and parcel of every COAG meeting. His skills will be put to the test at this COAG meeting as his Premier attempts to defy his state and territory counterparts and the advice of the Commonwealth Grants Commission as WA grapples to manage its budget amidst plummeting iron ore prices.
- Supporting Jay Weatherill is Kym Winter-Dewhirst, who commenced in the role in January this year returning to SA after a 10 year term with BHP Billiton. Prior to that Winter-Dewhirst served as environmental adviser to a number of state and federal politicians.
- Representing Tasmania, Greg Johannes has a long history of public service across several Tasmanian agencies. Before that he has worked both in the State and Federal public service and in private industry.
- Blair Comley was appointed by Premier Mike Baird in October 2014. Comley was appointed Secretary of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency by Kevin Rudd, but was removed by Tony Abbott in September 2013, reportedly because he was seen as too close to the former government’s climate change agenda. Comley has also worked in Treasury and at the OECD.
- The new Victorian Secretary of PMC Chris Eccles has an interesting CV. Uniquely, he has headed Premiers’ departments in three states: South Australia (2009–11), NSW (2011–14) and now Victoria. He has a lot of COAG experience, having chaired the COAG Skills and Workforce Development Committee.
- Dave Stewart returns to Queensland as head of DPC after a stint in NSW as Secretary for Transport and Main Roads. Stewart has plenty of line agency experience, in a field, transport, that is inherently intergovernmental. But this will be his first COAG, and the stakes are high for Queensland, which can ill-afford to have its share of GST revenue reduced to placate WA.
Today’s COAG meeting will be keenly watched by those interested in Australia’s federalism. While often testy and difficult, the deliberations and debates that occur around COAG meetings signal the dynamism and tenacity of our federal structure.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
TRACEY ARKLAY
Dr Arklay is Lecturer in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University and a Research Fellow with Griffith’s Centre for Governance and Public Policy.
She is the author of Arthur Fadden: A Political Silhouette (Australian Scholarly Publishing, 2015) and co-author of The Ayes Have It: A History of the Queensland Parliament 1957–89 (ANU Press, 2010).
