Queensland Election 2015
Thoughts on Week 1
Going Early
On Tuesday 6 January, Premier Campbell Newman took advantage of his incumbency and called the election a couple of weeks earlier than was predicted. As the rumour mill went into overdrive the night before, the chances of catching the Labor Opposition at the beach were diminished.
The early January campaign is a high risk strategy for a couple of reasons:
- Voters don’t like having their holidays interrupted by politics and resent trying to get their children back to school at the same time as being bombarded with party political information.
- January is disaster season in Queensland and there is a high chance of a cyclone or flood hitting during the election. This makes the job for the Electoral Commission particularly difficult, and if a disaster strikes near election day, many people in isolated communities will be unable to vote.
So did the tactic of going early work?
Modern campaigning is planned out a long time before an election is called. The Australian Labor Party would have prepared a 26 day campaign starting on a Tuesday and finishing on a Saturday. When the Premier visited the Acting Governor, all they had to do was slot in the date and begin implementation. And that seemed to be the case.
Those who were disadvantaged by the early poll were the minor parties. The Katter Australia Party (KAP) was literally on holidays and seemed to have written off the first week of campaigning. The Palmer United Party (PUP) is still struggling to register candidates for a number of seats, but with their love of a media spend, should soon have some advertisements on the air.
However, the lift in the polls that the LNP received in the first week will confirm their decision to go early and give them a boost into the second week of campaigning.
Policy Announcements
The first week of an election campaign is based on ‘symbolic’ campaigning. The intention is to establish positive symbolism for the leader who will represent the party during the campaign.
Campbell Newman positioned himself as a ‘strong’ leader with a ‘strong plan’ for Queensland.
Annastacia Palaszczuk presented herself as the underdog in a ‘David and Goliath’ contest and as a leader ‘of the people’ with her concerns about youth unemployment and jobs.
The LNP’s policy focus for the week was on highlighting their achievements in law and order, health and the economy. Labor concentrated on the rise of unemployment in Queensland — particularly in rural and regional communities and on frontline service delivery with the announcement of 400 new nurses.
Research shows people do not engage until the last week of an election campaign when they feel ‘forced’ to make a decision. This means major parties will hold their policy fire until their campaign launches in a couple of weeks’ time.
Style of Campaigning
Though the major parties are often accused of being indistinguishable, the public will see two very different styles of campaigning in this election. The LNP has a significant war chest and can afford to spend twice the amount of the ALP on paid advertising, particularly on TV.
When the election was called, the LNP seamlessly flowed from running Government paid advertising on hospital waiting lists to election ads showing the LNP leadership team sitting at a table putting their finishing touches on their ‘strong plan’.
This funding will allow them to dominate the television space, though the ALP will maintain a respectable presence during the evening viewing.
What the ALP doesn’t have in money it will make up for in people. Party sources are reporting a surge of volunteers in key inner-Brisbane seats: particularly Ashgrove, Brisbane Central and Mt Coot-tha.
Candidates are running grassroots campaigns where they focus on door knocking and calling undecided voters. Electors can expect to be contacted by ‘real’ people, such as nurses and teachers, who have had experience of the management style of the current government and have returned to the ALP after becoming disillusioned with Anna Bligh’s government.
The different campaign styles are evident in the contest for Ashgrove. Campbell Newman is restricted in the time he can spend on the ground in the seat and will rely on large spending announcements directed at roads, schools and community groups.
Kate Jones is eschewing media attention and will try and gain the 1,500 votes she needs, person by person, by door knocking and calling electors.
Wild Card Award
To Clive Palmer for successfully starting a rumour that the Premier was forced to an early election to prevent a leadership spill.
Listen to Week 1 reviewed
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Anne Tiernan is a Professor in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University.
Professor Tiernan’s research focuses on the work of governing. Her scholarly interests include: Australian politics and governance, policy advice, executive studies, policy capacity, federalism and intergovernmental coordination. She has written extensively on the political-administrative interface, caretaker conventions, governmental transitions and the work of policy advising.
