Risk Assessment of Violent Extremism
by Professor Geoff Dean
Risk assessment revolves around identifying threats and either analysing or evaluating the risk associated with the particular threat.
In terms of violent extremism, the focus of risk assessment must be on the ‘observables’ of at-risk behaviours. While behaviours may include: an involvement with radicals or searching for extremist websites, one must also focus on the justifications and thought patterns behind the perceptions and beliefs which underpin an extremist mindset.
If the sole focus is on the those behaviours that are classified as at risk the actual process of radicalization is generally well underway by the time the ‘observables’ of behavioural-focused risk indicators are identified.
By focusing on mindset one is able to notice how the person’s train of thought and thinking may have changed to a more extreme and potentially violent perspective. It is essential to focus on both the behaviours as well as the mindset that can be associated with violent extremism.
An analogy can be used to provide further clarification between the differences of the behaviour and mindset focus of violent extremism. The different purposes of both focuses can be explained through using a telescope compared to using a microscope.
For example, in order to discover which trees in a forest have poisonous berries, it would be appropriate to use a telescope to scan the forest form a distance. By doing so, one is able to identify the trees that grow berries. Having identified 100 different tress that grow berries from a forest of over ten thousand trees, now each fruit needs to be examined. Using a microscope would provide greater detail into which berries are poisonous and others that are suitable to consume.
A program that focuses on both behaviours and mindsets that revolve around violent extremism is the Structured Assessment of Violent Extremism (SAVE) inventory. The SAVE inventory uses a neurocognitive-based algorithm to assess the current risk or threat level of an individual. It is designed to capture those specific perceptions and beliefs found to be associated with violent extremism — for example Islamic-inspired terrorism, militants, and active shooters in workplaces, schools, and public places.
Once the SAVE inventory recognises the input of Islamic-based perceptions and beliefs, the program produces a 3-D ‘risk surface’ where the risk and threat level of an individual whom has already been identified as a person of concern by the government and authorities can be examined.
Another important feature of the SAVE system is that it also incorporates a radicalisation timeline. Each phase on this timeline provides an explanation into the mind of a potential violent extremist. This timeline is based on the well-established neuroplasticity principle that ‘neurons fire together wire together’.
The Islamic Terrorist Inventory (ITI) flows into the SAVE software and very concise and precise checklist of neuro-cognitive-based risk indicators. The foundation of the concise checklist is the focus of the SAVE system which is on assessing the current state-of-play of a PoC’s mindset not their behaviours. There are several other behaviourally-based tools for that purpose which police and security services regularly use.
The SAVE system is the first of its kind in the world that seeks to quantify then visualize the degree to which an individual’s mind has or has not been radicalised. The SAVE system is awaiting funding from the Federal Government for field trials in various police jurisdictions in Australia.
In terms of future development, the SAVE system has a wide application. Violent extremists come in all shapes and sizes, but generally falls within three main groupings:
- Those that are religiously-based extremists — including, Islamic jihadists, fundamentalists Christian cults, sects);
- Those that are militancy-based extremists — including far right-wing and left-wing political activists, and
- Those that are rage-based (active shooter) extremists — including school shootings, workplace shootings, public space shootings like shopping malls, crowded streets/parks, college/university campuses).
As violent extremism can cover a broad range, the SAVE system potentially has application in the business, workplace and educational sectors.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
GEOFF DEAN
Geoff Dean is a Professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Director of International Programs at Griffith University, Australia.
Geoff’s areas of professional expertise include countering violent extremism; knowledge-managed policing; global organised crime; criminal and terrorism profiling; and investigative psychology.
