2019 Australian Federal Election
SEATS IN PLAY
Griffith University’s panel of politics and policy experts have identified ten seats at risk in the 2019 federal election and one wildcard.
BONNER
With a margin of 3.4% Bonner, in the Eastern suburbs of Brisbane, has been held by the LNP’s Ross Vasta since 2010. He had previously held the seat from 2004 but lost it in 2007 for one term. Since re-election in 2010, Vasta has put his hand up for the role of Speaker following the resignation of Bronwyn Bishop.
In the lead-up to the 2019 election, a report in The Guardian indicates Vasta has received some support from the members of the Australian Christian Lobby. The electorate of Bonner includes iconic Moreton Island, as well as Bay side suburbs of Wynnum, Manly as well as Mount Gravatt and Carindale.
Bonner voters share the concerns of many residents across Australia who live in the outer suburbs of capital cities — household budgets and cost of living pressures. Immediate issues include the price of electricity, petrol, healthcare, education and childcare. The electorate has a significant proportion of young families who may also be influenced by the debates regarding climate change especially in the light of the oppressive summer of 2018 and natural disasters that continue to plague Queensland.
While the LNP has the value of incumbency, some reports list it as an outside chance for Labor. In 2016 the Greens secured a swing of 2.6%. Ross Vasta was a supporter of fellow LNP MP Peter Dutton in the leadership spill against the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, but how much this resonates with voters in Bonner remains to be seen.
BRISBANE
The seat of Brisbane covers the gentrified inner Brisbane suburbs of Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, New Farm and north to Ascot and Hamilton. The seat was won by the LNP in 2010 with Trevor Evans becoming the local member at the 2016 election. Prior to 2010, Brisbane was a long term Labor seat, however demographic change is not on the ALPs side as wealthy baby boomers continue to move into the seat to take advantage of services and cultural amenity.
The LNP’s Evans won the seat comfortably in 2016 with, after allocation of preferences, 56 per cent of the vole compared to the ALPs 44 per cent. At the last election, the Greens gained 19.4 per cent of the vote and their candidate this time is Andrew Bartlett, a former Senator with a high profile. Despite the large margin for the LNP, Brisbane has been identified as a priority seat for the ALP who have sent through a range of senior Shadow Ministers including the leader Bill Shorten. The ALP candidate Paul Newberry is an expert in the transition to renewable energy and could appeal to disaffected Liberal moderates who want to see action on climate change. On paper, the seat should be safe LNP but the ALPs continued interest indicate they believe there is potential to harvest disaffected Liberal voters.
CAPRICORNIA
The Central Queensland seat of Capricornia was won by Michelle Landry for the LNP in 2013 and she retained it in 2016 by a tight margin of 0.6 percent. The seat runs inland from Rockhampton and is a mixture of regional city, rural towns, agricultural, mining and pastoral areas. For much of its history, it has been a Labor seat with strong support from the mining towns of Collinsville, Moranbah and Dysart. The smaller agricultural centres such as Clermont and Finch Hatton vote LNP with the vote in urban centres split down the middle.
There are nine candidates running in this election. As well as the major parties, the Katter Australia Party (KAP) had a strong presence at the last election with a vote of 7.1 per cent. This year, as well as the KAP, there are candidates from Labour DLP, One Nation, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party. The announcement that the UAP will direct preferences to Michelle Landry, as well the KAP and ON has strengthened her position.
The ALP candidate Russell Robertson is a third-generation miner from Moranbah and has come out to strongly support the opening up of the Galilee Basin and Adani. At the last election, the Greens only polled 4.7 per cent of the vote and any flow on from these preferences will be insufficient to see Labor return to what was once a safe Labor seat.
DAWSON
The Coalition’s George Christensen notionally holds Dawson on a margin of 3.4%, but his grasp on the seat is under threat from several angles. At one end of the political spectrum, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation threatens to do well amongst conservative voters in the electorate. While Christensen’s controversial stances on Islam, immigration, and the Safe Schools program might be enough to keep potential PHON voters in the fold, Christensen has himself expressed concern at One Nation’s appeal.
One the other hand, Labor’s Belinda Hassan will seek to win voters over by presenting a stark contrast to Christensen’s unashamedly brash style of politics — the key here will be tying her volunteer work with domestic violence support groups to Labor’s broader campaign narratives of a fair go and support for women.
The battle between mining and the environment will be a key issue for both major parties in this seat. A third of male workers in Dawson are employed in either the mining or logistics industries, and the Coalition’s sign-off for the Adani mine just before calling the election might sway this demographic, in comparison to Labor’s continued equivocation on the issue.
At the same time, however, Dawson’s coastal residents in Mackay, Airlie Beach, Bowen, Ayr and Townsville may be troubled by the Coalition’s continued inaction on climate change, and the threat this poses to the Great Barrier Reef and associated tourism jobs. Accordingly, Dawson will be a key flashpoint for some of the major policy issues shaping the entire federal election, and will be a critical side for either party hoping to form government.
DICKSON
The outer Brisbane seat of Dickson has been held by LNP Minister Peter Dutton since 2001. Since then, his margin has risen or fallen depending on the general swing of the election. It is currently 1.7 percent. The seat has a mixture of strong Labor and strong LNP areas. Labor support is strongest into the suburban corridors of Kallangur, Strathpine, Bray Park and Murrumba Downs while the LNP are strong in the acreage and rural areas of Dayboro, Albany Creek and Samford identify areas.
For this election there are eight candidates. As well as the major parties, One Nation, the United Australia Party and Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party all are running candidates. At the 2016 election, the Greens made the most inroads of the other parties with 9.8 per cent of the vote.
The danger for Peter Dutton is the conservative vote has split, though his position has been strengthened with the announcement that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will both direct preferences to the sitting member.
On the ALP side, they have a strong candidate in Ali France whose profile was increased when Peter Dutton was forced to apologise for comments he made about her disability. To win she will have to build on the ALP primary vote of 35 per cent at the last election which rose to 48.3 percent on the redistribution of preferences, which indicates a disciplined flow of preferences from the Greens candidate. The left side of politics will be bolstered by GetUp’s commitment to removing ‘hard right’ members of the Liberal Party with Peter Dutton one of their key targets.
The seat of Dickson will be decided by preferences and the outcome of the vote will be emblematic of the forces at play in this election.
FLYNN
The seat of Flynn in Central Queensland is a mixture of regional centre and rural areas with the economy centreing around heavy industry, agriculture and mining. The strongest ALP vote is in Gladstone, Gracemere and the Indigenous community of Woorabinda. The LNP has an extremely high vote in the spread of agricultural towns in the southern and western part of the electorate including, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Taroom, Springsure, Emerald and Monto.
Eight candidates are running in the election with the sitting LNP member, Ken O’Dowd scoring the unenviable last place on the ballot paper. The seat was created in 2007 and has been held by O’Dowd since 2010. The 2016 election saw a 5.5 per cent swing to Labor with the largest vote of a non-major party going to One Nation with 17.2 percent of the vote. All fringe conservative parties are running including Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, the United Australia Party and Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party. Again, their directing of preferences to O’Dowd will prevent some of the splintering of the conservative vote which is always so detrimental to the LNP.
The ALP candidate Zac Beers, who also ran in the 2016 election, has previously worked at Queensland Alumina in Gladstone and is currently a union organiser. With a 1.1 per cent margin, Flynn is in the ALP’s sights but without the additional support of GetUp and the large number of rural and conservative towns, it will be a hard seat to swing away from the LNP.
FORDE
Forde is a critical seat in the 2019 election. The LNP’s Bert Van Manen has held the seat since 2010, but won in 2016 with a margin of just 0.6%. This makes the seat, which covers parts of the northern Gold Coast, Beenleigh, and part of Logan, one of the most marginal seats in the country. Any swing against the Coalition, which most polls currently predict will happen, would deliver the seat to Labor’s Des Hardman.
The challenge for both parties will be engaging voters — a 2016 survey showed Forde was the most politically disinterested electorate in the country. Accordingly, the election in Forde will likely be fought on broad messages rather than detailed arguments. The most likely outcome is a Labor win in Forde, however there are two factors that could save the Coalition.
First, the Coalition’s Energy Supplement payments to low-income residents will provide welcome relief to this electorate, which includes some of the most disadvantaged regions in the State. Census data suggests that over a third of the electorate’s 90,000 voters could be eligible for the payments — more than enough to swing the election if the Coalition can successfully leverage these payments as part of its narrative of strong economic management.
Second, Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing could be a real wedge issue in an electorate where over 40% of the population rents. On one hand, Labor’s message to renters in Forde will be one of hope and fairness — a promise of an easier entry into the housing market. On the other hand, the Coalition’s scare campaign of increased rent and a shortage of available homes may find fertile ground amongst voters who cannot afford to enter the housing market.
HERBERT
Surrounded by LNP or KAP electorates on all sides without a sea view, the electorate of Herbert is a relatively small (by Nth Queensland standards) electorate that houses the major population centre of Townsville. Currently holding the title ‘Australia’s most marginal seat’ Herbert was won by the ALP’s Cathy O’Toole in 2016 by 37 votes (Margin 0.02%).
Home to James Cook University and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, as well as being a major Defence location and home to the Indigenous community of Palm Island, Herbert highlights the tensions that will be played out in the upcoming federal election.
Issues can be summed up by the need to balance environmental concerns with employment opportunities. The polarising nature of the debate in regards these choices makes the job of picking a likely winner difficult.
Clive Palmer’s decision to pay his former Queensland Nickel workers their unpaid entitlements after a three year wait fuels the speculation that he might indeed put his hand up — although that remains unconfirmed. The devastating North Queensland floods was provided as his reason for making the payment now but ultimately it will be up to Herbert voters to decide whether this is great news or too little, far too late. Flood relief, the suffering of local farmers, economic issues and the Great Barrier Reef will all feature prominently during the election.
LONGMAN
Currently held by the ALP’s Susan Lamb by 4.5% — is a sprawling outer-metropolitan seat on Brisbane’s north-side, consisting of three separate regions: a central commuter-belt corridor based on Caboolture and Burpengary, Bribie Island and Deception Bay, and a rural hinterland spreading across Samsonvale and including Woodford. The seat again returns to the polls after a vigorously fought by-election in July 2018 which saw the LNP vote drop by around 10% and Labor gain a swing of 3% (note the LNP are not re-standing their failed candidate Trevor Ruthenberg).
Previously the first-term MP Susan Lamb held the seat by just 0.79%. This time at least eight candidates have nominated including: ALP (Lamb), LNP (Terry Young), the Greens (Simone Dejun), PHON (Matthew Thomson), UAP (Bailey Maher) as well as two smaller right-of centre parties (Australia First, and the People’s Party) and one leftist party (Progressives).
The seat will almost certainly not be decided on the primary vote, and many would predict the LNP will be more competitive than in the by-election. Susan Lamb can expect a strong flow of preferences from the Greens; but the LNP will probably get the majority of the other minor party preferences — including One Nation and the Palmer candidate both of whom have yet to determine their preference flows (importantly One Nation won 15.9% of the vote in 2018, with its preferences splitting 60–40% to the LNP).
While Susan Lamb is now well known in the electorate, she hardly ministerial material and is sticking to the Labor mantra of ‘cuts and chaos’. The LNP have put up a successful local businessman who will appeal to small business owners and tradies; he’s prioritising anti-congestion and local jobs. Key issues in the seat of Longman are cost of living pressures, hospitals and health, schools and employment prospects.
PETRIE
Petrie is a concentrated residential seat on Brisbane’s coastal north-side, it includes the suburbs of Carseldine and Bracken Ridge as well as the Redcliffe peninsular. Along with the seat of Forde, Petrie is regarded as the LNP’s most vulnerable electorate — currently sitting on 1.7% — and will be a tough fight to hold. However, the LNP’s local member Luke Howarth is an active community campaigner who managed to increase his margin in 2016 against the Labor surge nationally.
So far, five party candidates have indicated they are standing: LNP (Howarth), ALP (Corinne Mulholland), the Greens (Jason Kennedy), PHON (Nikhil Aai Reddy), Neville Fowler (Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party) and the UAP’s Troy Hopkins. No independents have yet nominated.
Howarth has publicly advocated a preference swap with One Nation, and will hope to gain any Palmer preferences, but needs to maintain the primary vote he attracted in 2016 (44.7%) which was over six percent ahead of the ALP candidate. Howarth boasts many local achievements as the local member who has held the seat since 2013, mainly roads and transport projects or upgrades and other local facilities, and wants the new Brisbane-Sunshine Coast railway to be routed through the electorate. Mulholland is a former Labor staffer to Arch Bevis, and was previously a strategic adviser to the mayor of the Moreton Bay council, but seems to have become embroiled in a tendering scandal involving poor governance issues and kick-backs. She is mostly spending her time fighting Peter Dutton in the next seat after his comments about his opponent.
Local community and development issues will likely predominate in the electoral contest for Petrie, especially infrastructure and congestion issues, as well as cost of living pressures, although the LNP claims border protection and local crime are salient issues.
WILDCARD: RYAN
Inmost federal elections Ryan would not be listed as a seat to watch. Held by the Liberal Party since 1949 with one brief exemption following a by-election in 2001, Ryan is one of the most blue-ribbon seats that Queensland produces. The LNP currently hold the seat on a margin of 9%.
The Ryan electorate includes suburbs that house the University of Queensland, includes Mount Coot-tha, Enoggera and Bardon, as well as acreage suburbs of Moggill and Brookfield. Comparatively, Ryan more closely resembles Wentworth or Warringah than most Queensland seats.
Economically conservative, yet socially progressive, it is the type of seat that might change hands if the right candidate appeared. While there is no such independent of the ilk of Kerryn Phelps or Zali Steggall contesting Ryan in 2019, the primary vote for the Greens increased at both the federal and state level in previous elections. In 2017 the state seat of Maiwar (which forms part of the Ryan electorate) was won by the Greens. For all these reasons, Ryan is of interest this time around.
Jane Prentice, a three-term member and an assistant minister, who in 2016 won the seat with an increased majority, was dumped and replaced with a man who in her valedictory speech to Parliament she alluded to as being part of the new breed of politicians who are ‘impatient[ly] ambitious’. Julian Simmonds, former Chair of the Brisbane City Council planning committee thus fronts the election with some baggage. Jane Prentice was regarded as a moderate Liberal and was one of the few women on the front bench of the federal Liberal Party. Outsiders might consider her ousting as a further sign that the Liberal Party has trouble with women and punishes those with moderate views.
It is unlikely that a percentage of voters in Ryan would favour the economic re-distributive policies espoused by Labor and the Greens, yet it is also clear that Ryan voters are concerned with broader issues to do with climate change and refugee policies. Close to 1000 young people registered to vote for the Same Sex Marriage Plebiscite in 2017. With no incumbency advantage this time around, and a growing awareness for environmental issues (perhaps part of the reason why the Mt Coot-tha zipline was suddenly cancelled after the election was called) Ryan may produce some unexpected shocks to the Liberal Party.
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