Swelling in the Ranks
New voter enrolment, voting intentions, and their impacts
by Jerath Head
After the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey was announced on 8 August 2017, the Australian Electoral Commission’s Twitter account became briefly and exponentially more popular. Tweets about the number of electoral roll enrolments and transactions taking place in the lead-up to the 24 August cut-off (for voter eligibility) were seen as evidence of a groundswell of support for the Yes campaign, and raised speculation over the implications this might have for future elections.
In all, 98,193 voters* were added to the electoral roll in this period. ABC election analyst Antony Green was quick to point out that this was fewer than at the close of roll for the 2016 federal election, where there was a total of 111,535 new enrolments over roughly the same timeframe (8–23 May 2016). However, some have speculated that the 2017 enrolments could hold unique political significance, a view underpinned by the assumption that these are predominantly ‘yes’ voters, unlikely to cast a ballot for the LNP in any upcoming election. There is some merit to this, given evidence that younger people tend to vote left and that 83 per cent of the new enrolments for the postal survey were people under thirty-five. However, as recent data from Essential Research shows, political voting preferences between the two major parties don’t explicitly correlate with opinions on same-sex marriage (65 per cent of Labor and 84 per cent of Greens supporters are in favour; the LNP and ‘others’ are more evenly split, though also marginally in favour).
Furthermore, it can’t be taken for granted that their intention to vote in the survey will translate to a ballot cast at the polling booth; the 2016 federal election saw the lowest voter turnout since compulsory voting began, though Antony Green notes this could have resulted from the AEC’s new capacity to directly enrol people via government agency information (that is, to account for people who have actively avoided being accounted for). The participation of the latest cohort of new voters — particularly the young, among whom voter apathy is widely thought to be high — remains to be seen.
Impending state election
The soonest we might see the ramifications of the postal survey enrolments play out is in the impending Queensland state election, anticipated for late 2017 or early 2018. Queensland had 23,628 new enrolments, 84 per cent of which were under thirty-five. For the purpose of considering how the postal survey enrolments might impact on the state election, then, age-specific data on electoral voting intentions is perhaps more useful than same-sex marriage opinions.
While I was unable to source voting intentions by electoral district, a ReachTEL poll from June 2017 revealed the following breakdown of intentions by age:
When these percentages are applied to the postal survey enrolment data for Queensland, they suggest that of the newly enrolled voters, 31.7 per cent would vote Labor, 28 per cent the LNP, 16.8 per cent One Nation, 12.8 per cent the Greens, 7 per cent other or independent, and 5.7 per cent were undecided. If Greens preferences follow a similar pattern to the 2015 election, this raises Labor to 39.8 percent and the Coalition to 29.6 per cent. This doesn’t align with perceptions of new enrolments for the postal survey being exclusively ‘left’ voters, or with Labor state secretary Evan Moorhead’s belief that ‘these people have joined the role [sic] for the first time solely for the purpose of voting against the LNP’s marriage equality policy’.
Electoral redistribution and marginal seats
Taking into account Antony Green’s enrolment redistribution (following finalisation of the state’s new electoral boundaries), this allocation of new voters by party alone has swing potential in only one electorate: Pumicestone. With the LNP sitting on a notional 0.1 per cent margin after redistribution, Labor’s share of these votes would be enough to secure the seat — assuming 2015’s significant swing to Labor doesn’t reverse. One Nation’s ‘initial’ plans to contest could easily suck votes from the major parties, however, and combined with the collapse of the Palmer United Party could put a spanner in these works.
The districts with the lowest number of postal survey enrolments were Bundaberg and Maryborough. Both were won by Labor at the 2015 election, but both lost ground to the LNP in the redistribution. (And both are in the sights of new One Nation candidates.) While the postal survey enrolments may help Labor claw back some of this ground, the Palaszczuk government’s Advancing Queensland strategy could be a more decisive factor: significant money and jobs generated by the ‘new frontiers’ of this policy push are, according to the Premier, ‘heading to regional Queensland’.
Other notable marginal seats post-redistribution include Mansfield and Mount Ommaney, both of which were retained by the LNP in 2015, and both of which are now notional Labor seats (with 0.8 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively). Mount Ommaney has a small number of Palmer United votes needing new homes; if the 2016 national preferences are anything to go by, when split between the two major parties and combined with the new voters, Labor could ostensibly consolidate its new majority. The case is similar for Mansfield, minus the PUP presence; however, in both instances it will be interesting to see how the redistribution, which favours Labor in seats that have been held by the LNP since 2012, might be used politically.
Lastly, an interesting contest looks set to emerge in the seat of South Brisbane. Labor won the seat convincingly in 2015 and retains a strong margin after the distribution; however, the decreasing popularity of incumbent member and deputy premier Jackie Trad, and suggestions that the LNP might run dead (and direct its preferences to the Greens), have cast doubt on Labor’s position. Greens candidate Amy McMahon is campaigning on the premise that the party needs only 455 votes (according to independent analysis) to win the seat. South Brisbane had the largest number of new enrolments for the postal survey, and there is good reason to believe more of these will flow to the Greens than anywhere else in the state — a majority could see this 455 gap close significantly.
Of course, all this depends on two other important, as yet indeterminable factors: the increased presence of One Nation, which is set to contest thirty-six seats; and, perhaps most significantly, the lay of preferential allocations, given that compulsory preferential voting will once again be in force in Queensland.
*All information pertaining to new enrolments between 8–24 August 2017 taken from data released by the Australian Electoral Commission under a Freedom of Information request.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
JERATH HEAD
Jerath Head is part of the editorial team at Griffith Review. Jerath is a Master’s student at the University of Queensland, and has worked as a freelance writer and editor in Australia and Ireland.
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