Two campaigns, two very different races.
by Todd Winther
Three hundred and forty-nine days out from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the two primary races to determine each party’s nominee could not be more different.
The nomination of Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party candidate seems almost inevitable, while the Republican contest, conversely, appears to be wide open. Clinton is already testing lines that she might use in the general election. Currently, Ben Carson and Donald Trump are the most popular Republicans, but many are assuming that this is nothing more than a passing fancy.
Which scenario is better in the long term for the parties: inevitability or volatility? No one can really answer this question until the general election takes place, but the Democrats appear to hold a clear ascendency.
The Democrats Will Elect a Second Clinton
Ever since Vice President Joe Biden declined to run for President, the Democratic Primary has become a foregone conclusion, even more so than it appeared to be this time eight years ago. Perhaps this is just as well for Clinton, who has previously struggled in a campaign environment. This time, she has improved slowly as the primary has progressed, learning from the mistakes she made in 2008 that hampered her earlier in the primary contest.
Clinton’s first instinct on the campaign trail is to remain defensive. As a result, the debate over a private email server she used while she was Secretary of State has continued on for longer than was necessary, leading to questions of trustworthiness.
However, Clinton’s political standing improves when she is aggressive, defines political issues on her terms, and focuses her talking points towards substantive issues of policy. This was proven when she testified before the Congressional National Security Committee over the attacks on the Libyan embassy in Benghazi that occurred when she led the State Department. For hours Clinton rebuked each question that was asked of her, demonstrating uncommon calmness. It also allowed her to defend her record on national security issues, which will be a decisive factor in the general election campaign.
This change in style has also improved her performance in televised debates. In recent debates, her stance as a ‘proud progressive’ positions her in contrast to her Republican opponents, but also frames her policy positions as innovative. It is no coincidence that her polling numbers have improved. From here on, Clinton will be best served by following the advice that President Obama shared in a recent interview with GQ Magazine
You can’t separate good policy from the need to bring the American people along and make sure that they know why you’re doing what you’re doing.
Will the Republicans ‘Trump’ the Democrats?
Obama’s advice may also prove useful for the Republican candidates, who all have had a tendency to focus on the politics of the campaign instead of the policy. This is best illustrated by the rise of Donald Trump, the personification of the modern American politician who is excellent at getting media coverage, but struggles to develop ideas on substantive issues. As a consequence, the Republican contest is less a battle for political ideas, and instead resembles the conclusion of an episode of The Apprentice.
In contrast, Jeb Bush almost had an air of Clintonian inevitability at the beginning of the Republican Primary. However, he continues to make poor judgments and surprising mistakes that have caused him to be considered a polling afterthought, rather than the expected frontrunner.
However Bush has two things in his favour: time and money. At this stage of the race Bush can be compared to John Kerry during the Democratic Primary of 2004. Kerry, the expected frontrunner, trailed badly behind Howard Dean before turning around his poll numbers just before the Iowa Caucus at the beginning of the election year, eventually securing the nomination.
In the meantime, Bush’s fellow Floridian Marco Rubio fills the vacuum that he has created. Rubio has performed particularly well during the debates, and represents a generational shift for the Republicans. However, this asset could work against Rubio, because Republicans generally prefer their nominees to have considerable experience before competing in a general election.
Questions over Rubio’s personal finances also suggest that nominating Rubio for a general election against Clinton would be a risky proposition. If he is not nominated at this election, expect Rubio to be frontrunner for the Republicans next time around.
Aside from these three prominent figures, the other candidates have had brief moments in the spotlight. Right now, the moment belongs to Ben Carson, who genial nature masks extreme policy positions that would appear to make him unelectable. Carly Fiorina experienced a brief surge of popularity after a strong performance in the second debate, but her performance as the CEO of Hewlett Packard appears to have squashed her chances of nomination. Chris Christie, a once popular governor in the solidly Democratic state of New Jersey has always had the potential to compete in a general election, but his campaign has failed to take off, as he continues to be mired in scandal.
The Real Race Begins in Iowa
It is difficult to make any accurate predictions before the first contest has begun. In Presidential politics momentum is everything. This was certainly true of Obama in 2008, George W Bush in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 1992. If Hillary can win Iowa — where she ran third in 2008 and New Hampshire in quick succession — the nomination is hers for the taking.
The Republican race is destined to last much longer, and the nominee is unlikely to be clear until after Super Tuesday.
Whoever the Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton seems almost certain to be the first woman to win the Presidency. She has too much experience, too many battle scars from and much more time to plan a general election strategy than her eventual opponent to lose the General Election. However, this was the conventional wisdom eight years ago as well. It is best not take anything for granted. Clinton surely will not.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
TODD WINTHER
Todd Winther is a PhD Candidate in Political Science in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University, Australia.
Todd is a frequent contributor to The Conversation. His thesis studies the relationship between leadership and internal party structure.