2019 Australian Federal Election
WILDCARD: RYAN
After assessing the federal election campaign to date, Griffith University’s panel of politics and policy experts have identified ten Queensland seats at risk and one wildcard in 2019.
In most federal elections Ryan would not be listed as a seat to watch. Held by the Liberal Party since 1949 with one brief exemption following a by-election in 2001, Ryan is one of the most blue-ribbon seats that Queensland produces. The LNP currently hold the seat on a margin of 9%.
The Ryan electorate includes suburbs that house the University of Queensland, includes Mount Coot-tha, Enoggera and Bardon, as well as acreage suburbs of Moggill and Brookfield. Comparatively, Ryan more closely resembles Wentworth or Warringah than most Queensland seats.
Economically conservative, yet socially progressive, it is the type of seat that might change hands if the right candidate appeared. While there is no such independent of the ilk of Kerryn Phelps or Zali Steggall contesting Ryan in 2019, the primary vote for the Greens increased at both the federal and state level in previous elections. In 2017 the state seat of Maiwar (which forms part of the Ryan electorate) was won by the Greens. For all these reasons, Ryan is of interest this time around.
Jane Prentice, a three-term member and an assistant minister, who in 2016 won the seat with an increased majority, was dumped and replaced with a man who in her valedictory speech to Parliament she alluded to as being part of the new breed of politicians who are ‘impatient[ly] ambitious’. Julian Simmonds, former Chair of the Brisbane City Council planning committee thus fronts the election with some baggage. Jane Prentice was regarded as a moderate Liberal and was one of the few women on the front bench of the federal Liberal Party. Outsiders might consider her ousting as a further sign that the Liberal Party has trouble with women and punishes those with moderate views.
It is unlikely that a percentage of voters in Ryan would favour the economic re-distributive policies espoused by Labor and the Greens, yet it is also clear that Ryan voters are concerned with broader issues to do with climate change and refugee policies. Close to 1000 young people registered to vote for the Same Sex Marriage Plebiscite in 2017. With no incumbency advantage this time around, and a growing awareness for environmental issues (perhaps part of the reason why the Mt Coot-tha zipline was suddenly cancelled after the election was called) Ryan may produce some unexpected shocks to the Liberal Party.
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