Virtual Bonanza
Why VR is the Next Gold Rush
In January 1848, James Marshall discovered gold near Sutter’s Mill, setting in motion one of the great migrations in American history.
Within two years 90,000 people had come to California to seek their fortune with another 210,000 on the way. Despite tremendous obstacles like Typhoid fever, shipwrecks, and potential starvation, these ‘49ers travelled thousands of miles in search of adventure and fortune.
Each staked their claim to a promising patch of land in the hope that their plot, out of all plots in California, would contain the Mother Lode.
In August 2012, Palmer Luckey launched the Oculus Kickstarter campaign and a new Gold Rush began.
Staking a Virtual Claim
Virtual reality, like California 170 years ago, isn’t quite virgin territory but it might as well be. There are no big companies dominating the software landscape and most of the tricks of the trade are still being figured out. Although companies and individuals have been trying for decades to turn virtual reality into an industry, only now is the technology sufficiently advanced for mass market consumer VR to take off. That means all the market opportunities that people have been dreaming about for years are finally viable.
Since Palmer launched his Kickstarter and especially since Facebook acquired Oculus, hundreds of entrepreneurs have begun staking their claims to different parts of the nascent VR market. Although tech giants are producing the headsets, we’ve yet to see any big players jump head first into the VR software or VR peripherals markets, instead leaving them wide open to entrepreneurs. This is the new frontier, a chance to establish oneself as a market leader before the money really gets flowing and the big guys take notice.
Like the California gold fields, everyone is trying to find their niche within the emerging industry. Jaunt is trying to own the recorded video market while NextVR is focused on streaming video. Altspace is the VR hangout spot, Janus is best for social collaboration, and VR Chat is how you talk to your buddies. Leap Motion, Sixense, and Virtuix are all trying to target different ways of interacting with virtual worlds.
Although some direct competitors have emerged in the VR industry, most companies realize that the market is going to be huge. There’s no need to compete head-to-head at this early stage. Instead, each company can focus on its own “claim” and work it until product perfection.
A New Frontier
One of the most exciting parts about working in the virtual reality industry is that it’s absolutely wide open. Like the California frontier, there’s no hard-and-fast rules, few true experts, and a even fewer market leaders. That means anyone can get into the scene. The DK2 is our pick axe and Unity3D our gold pan. With some time, commitment, and drive, anyone can establish themselves as a VR developer or entrepreneur.
It also means that we get to write the rules for VR. Oculus has done a great job crafting a “best practices” guide, but the truth is everyone is still trying to figure out what works in VR and what doesn’t. More so, no one knows what is going to be successful in virtual reality. Will 360 videos catch on or will social VR experiences be more popular? We won’t know until the mass market really starts adopting VR, but we can continue experimenting until we find out.
The craziest thing about working on the virtual reality frontier is that we’re also building a new frontier for people to explore. The ultimate dream of most VR entrepreneurs is a metaverse where people can “stake their claim” in a limitless number of environments. The metaverse is the ultimate human frontier, where we can explore, build, and create on a scale like never before.
It’s Not About the Gold
The one crucial difference between the VR Gold Rush and California Gold Rush is that truthfully most of the VR entrepreneurs that I've met are not in it for the money. That’s not to say that there won’t be tremendous returns for companies that staked their claims in the right corner of the VR market. On the contrary, I think VR will create a number of billion dollar companies in a variety of verticals. However, the current spirit of the VR industry is about democratizing experiences, allowing seamless social interaction, and creating the ultimate gaming adventure. If we make some cash along the way, so be it.
Every new technology from the PC to the Internet to mobile phones has presented a massive market opportunity akin to a Gold Rush. And like the Gold Rush, those that came in search of easy riches usually came too late. Instead, it’s the early pioneers, those that are in it for the adventure and the chance to be a part of history, that find the Mother Lode of an opportunity.
As us ‘15ers begin to stake our claims and create the early market for VR, we have the chance to radically shape the future of human-computer interaction.
I can’t wait to see our “Eureka” moments.
