The Blackhawks should consider moving Jonathan Toews
The Chicago Blackhawks are screwed.
Yes, this is a ludicrous thing to type about a team that has won three Stanley Cups in the past seven years. This also seems like a knee jerk reaction to a team losing in the first round two years in a row, including not winning a game in this year’s post season, in which they entered as heavy favorites.
But hear me out.
On the surface, they seem fine. Their core players are still seemingly productive and locked up, they have a young superstar in Artemi Panarin, and they have a genius at the helm in GM Stan Bowman. They’ve dealt with a cap crunch before, they can do it again.
Sure, they could win a Stanley Cup next year. I won’t be surprised. They’re a great team, and the closest thing we’ve seen to a true dynasty in the past 15 years. Short term, they’re still sitting pretty good.
Long term, they have to deal with potentially five absolutely horrendous contracts.
Why yes, that is 38-year-old Marian Hossa locked up at a cap hit of just over $5 million dollars for the next four seasons. And yes, that is 32-year-old Brent Seabrook and 33 year old Duncan Keith signed on for the next six seasons at just under $7 million and $5.5 million respectively. The $4.5 million cap hit to Artem Anisimov through 2020–21 essentially becomes a foot note, and their 32-year-old goalie Corey Crawford is signed on at $6 million per year until 2019–20.
And we definitely can’t gloss over the identical contracts that 28-year-olds Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have, both making $10.5 million each through the 2022–23 season.
The only one of those contracts that looks reasonable is Kane’s. Kane is entering the prime of his career and is a legit superstar. Keith and Seabrook are on the wrong side of 30, and there are a lot of miles on those legs, especially when factoring in the playoff games. The same goes for Hossa, and unless he wants to do his best Jagr impression, he could actually just retire in the next year or two.
But the Toews contract is a problem for someone who is already declining.
Toews finished the 2016–17 season with 21 goals and 37 assists, playing in 72 games. He also had 58 points in the 2015–16 season, playing eight more games. On the surface, Toews had a better year. But he really didn’t pick it up until February.
Prior to the second month of the year, Toews had 28 points in 43 games. In the final 29 games of the season, Toews had the remaining 30 points. Of those 30 points, 11 of them came in a five game span from February 18th-26th.
Taking the trajectory of the first 43 games of his season, Toews, on an 82 game pace, would have a little over 53 points. This would be a career low in a season where there wasn’t a lockout, though including his full season, he would project out to 66 points in a full 82 games.His 21 goals this season are his career low, even including the lockout shortened season.
His advanced stats also show his decline.
His Corsi and Fenwick over the past few seasons are by far his worst since his rookie year, and while he’s still north of 50 per-cent in both, it’s still a relatively significant drop, especially for someone playing on such a talented team.
A lot of what he brings to the table can’t be measured. He’s still a valuable defensive asset, and he’s still the captain of the Blackhawks. But it’s hard to refute that he’s declining, at least based on his offensive numbers.
This puts the Blackhawks in a very tough situation. On one hand, they have their captain, a guy that has been a big contributor in winning three Stanley Cups. He won the Conn Smythe in 2009–10, and the Selke in 2012–13.
But they also have a player who turns 29 in five days, is already on the decline, and will make $10.5 million per season until he’s 35 and his contract runs out in June of 2023.
I’m not saying they should move him. I’m certainly not saying they will, because even if they wanted to, he has that pesky full no-movement clause teams love to give players now, meaning Toews would have the final say on if he goes anywhere.
But it would not hurt Bowman to at least check the market. It seems so absurd for someone with Toews’ profile, but this is the reality we’re living in. And although he may be declining, there are 30 other teams in the NHL that would line up to get a guy like Toews on their roster.
And if they can’t move him, what else can they do? They’ve already had to give up really good young players like Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw, and Teuvo Teravainen in order to stay cap compliant. And while they’ve seemingly hit on more young guys like Nick Schmaltz and Richard Panik, eventually those guys will want more money, and that’s money the Blackhawks don’t have. So the process will repeat, and the Hawks will get more cheap young guys to play in the bottom six.
But what happens if those guys don’t work out? How much of this is good scouting and how much of it is repeated dumb luck?
The more likely move they try to make is finding someone to take Seabrook, who also has a full no-movement clause, but that is a difficult task in it’s own right.
And yes, they’ve won three Stanley Cups. Mission accomplished. It’s hard to feel sympathy for this current organization.
But that won’t be the narrative soon. And it may be starting now. The Chicago Blackhawks dynasty as we know it appears over. This isn’t a hot take based on a Cup favorite not making it to round two for the second straight postseason. This is a team so tight against the cap it’s hard for them to breathe, and their core of players are gaining ever more miles on already worn down legs.
While it seems crazy, at least checking out the market on Jonathan Toews would do a lot for their future. If they wait too long, he may not have any value at all.
