The Democratic Party’s future lies in the sun belt
Demographics aren’t destiny, but they are an opportunity
The loss of the 2016 election, even a year and a half out at the time of this article being written, is still a sore spot for Democrats. Specifically, the surprise loss of the longtime blue-leaning, rust-belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by narrow margins was the most stinging aspect of the electoral defeat. Those three rust belt states have long been a bastion of progressive politics due to its heavy industrialized and unionized voter base. Michigan and Pennsylvania hasn’t voted for the GOP since Bush ’41 in 1988. Wisconsin hasn’t since Reagan in 1984. The answers as to why this happened have been all over the place. Some have argued so called “identity politics” have alienated working class white voters, some thought the Clinton campaign wasn’t “inspiring enough” and that “Bernie would have won” The ensuing debates were either move to the left vs moderating, identity politics vs progressive economics and so forth. Despite the hand wringing, arguing, and disorientation; there is an opportunity opening for the post-obama democratic party.
The Rust Belt, the northern states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota; situated along the shores of the great lakes have been apart of “blue wall” of democratic states. With it’s heavy unionized voting base it has been a hotbed of progressive politics. However, demographics are changing throughout the country, and it seems the rust belt is moving to the right politically. As Democrats lose on belt, another belt comes into play.
The Sun Belt, named for the warm weather patterns of the southern and southwestern states of Florida, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, California, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico; shows promise.
These states have a recent influx of college educated voters to major cities such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Austin, Houston, and Phoenix. The also have a growing African-American, Hispanic, and Asian-American populations. In 2008, Barack Obama managed to win the state of North Carolina, it swung for republicans the last two elections but remained close. Georgia, a red state is increasingly competitive as the vote was closer there than in Ohio in 2016. Texas, often thought of as the consummate red state isn’t actually so red. The margin of victory by republican candidates has been slowly but consistently narrowing. George Bush won the state by about 20 points in 2000. Trump only won texas by 9 points in 2016.
This region has promise, and the party should make a greater effort to win the sun belt. However, the judgement of center-left elites seem to be a bit clouded. There is this obsession with winning back the rust belt, and more specifically white working class voters. There has long been a pipe dream of the left to assemble a multi-ethnic coalition of working class voters by emphasizing economic populism and an expanded redistributive state. Bernie Sanders 2016 campaign made that attempt but failed. The political reality is that the white working class will not be a democratic voting bloc. The GOP has the advantage with the white working class because they win on cultural issues such as guns, immigration, abortion, and opposition to LGBTQ rights. The Democrats must realize who their coalition really is and focus on maximizing turnout from its base voters. They are the party of young people, people of color, lgbtq people, women, and religious minorities. Chasing culturally anxious rural white voters is a dead end.
To put all this into perspective we need to examine who this party gets its support from. This is the party that elected the first African-American president. In 2016 alone, the primary featured a woman and a jewish man taking turns being the first woman or jew winning a primary. We nominated the first woman candidate for office. The party convention was organized by three black women Marcia Fudge, Donna Brazile, and Leah Daughtry. The breakout speaker was a Muslim man name Khizr Khan whose son was an army officer killed in Iraq. The convention also featured Sarah McBride, the first trans speaker at a major party convention. The DNC leadership race was won by a Hispanic man, Tom Perez, who narrowly beat out a black muslim and an openly gay veteran to get the job. This is the party that 94% of Black women voted for. Black women also were key in preventing a child molester, Roy Moore, from getting a senate seat.
The party should embrace its identity as the party of diverse America instead of trying to be something that it’s not, and there is great opportunity in this. In Arizona and Texas, there is a sleeping giant of unregistered, eligible latino voters. In Georgia, there are enough non-voting african-americans that would overcome the regular GOP margin of victory for statewide races. The Obama coalition can be revived and can be a long term electoral coalition in the same way the new deal coalition was successful. The country is undergoing a political realignment, and it will largely fall along race a geography. It would be wise to follow the headwinds, demographics aren’t destiny but they are an opportunity.
