We have a few potential black swans and wildcards in play again in the coming 12 months.
Will the war in Ukraine end? If so, how? Will inflation be tamed? Interest rates decline? Can central banks keep the show on the road? Has China peaked? Will energy prices fall? Recessions be short-lived? Bull markets return? Climate change…?
Wildcards and black swans notwithstanding, and steering clear of politics, wars and religion, here’s my clutch of predictions, mini-rants and contemplations for 2023.
Some more serious than others. None intended as investment advice.
1. India’s population will exceed that of China on 14th April 2023. India’s opportunity is to convert the numbers into health, education and economic growth.
2. At ~6%, India will be the world’s fastest growing economy. Elsewhere, developed economies will pretty much flat-line as the global economy bumps along at a meagre 1.8%. (Goldman Sachs).
3. Bitcoin will descend into irrelevance. Bitcoin reaching $5000 will be regarded by some as a black swan event — which, in truth, it isn’t.
4. The metaverse-mania will fade as we all revert to terms like ‘virtual’, ‘augmented’ and ‘immersive’ to describe and differentiate what’s actually happening.
5. Meta shareholders will become increasingly frustrated by its floundering metaverse experiment and call for its CEO to resign. He probably won’t.
6. 37% of customers will use digital assistants to call call-centers for customer service (Gartner). “Hey Siri, call Alexa to find out where my stuff is.”
7. Citizen-led Denial of Service (CDoS) attacks, using virtual assistants to shut down a firms’ operations, will become a budding form of protest. (Gartner).
8. The EU will pass the AI Act. As AI systems start to advise (or even decide) on everything from health care to killer drones, this is a promising piece of trail-blazing by Brussels.
9. The EU will struggle with the nuclear energy question (to build or not to build) despite carbon-zero commitments and geopolitical strategic complications.
10. Meanwhile, elsewhere in the world over 60 nuclear plants will be under construction, notably in China, Russia and India (World Nuclear Organization).
11. Apple will launch a high-end mixed-media (VR/AR) headset. This should prove a game-changer for gamers, but also for many others. Watch out for applications that will take the product into business mainstream (manufacturing, healthcare, conferencing…).
12. Savvy tech organizations will nominate a Chief AI Officer (or similar).
13. AI/ML systems will consume 3.5% of the global electricity supply. (Gartner)
14. Musk will sort out Twitter (p=.5) and appoint a new CEO (p=.9). The Twitter user-interface will, alas, remain something of a dog’s breakfast.
15. Cyber risk will become virtually uninsurable. The average cost of a data breach will likely exceed $4.3 million globally and $9.4 million in the US (IBM).
16. Cool websites will introduce a single ‘Just Browsing’ button to switch off unnecessary cookies, cancel the chat bot, stop the prompt for a newsletter, suppress location tracking and not request site feedback.
Stay safe. Have a great 2023!
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“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards” — Steve Jobs.
