A Perfect Decision
When we are about to decide on something, the dread of regret paralyzes our confidence.
Decisions are a fickle thing. When we don’t have the power to make a call, we crave control, to be heard. On the other hand when we are entrusted with an important choice, we are prone to shut down and not make any decision at all.
It is challenging to always make a call with confidence. Decision fatigue sets in when you have to make too many choices throughout the day. For instance, judges have been found to make less favorable decisions later in the day than early in the day.
What games can teach us
I love games. There are two types of games: complete information games — think Chess and Go — where you see the entire game board and all the information is revealed in front of you. You encounter this kind of decision making in your day when you optimize an algorithm.
Then there are incomplete information games like Werewolf and Poker. Because there is an element of the unknown, the outcome of your decisions in these games is less predictable. Most of the decisions we make in our lives are based on incomplete information and I am going to try to explain how to handle the emotional swings of unpredictable outcomes. This in turn will hopefully help you find peace in with whichever choices you make.
Information gathering and regathering
Our opinions are formed based on what we know and believe. This is your internal catalog that you reference when making a decision. It is paramount to update your internal catalog when presented with new information. Your opinions need to have some sort of viscosity in order to adapt to the ever changing reality you live in.
They say hindsight is 20/20 but what can you do to increase your foresight? It all comes down to gathering the best information you can — as in highest quality not quantity necessarily — and making a decision based on the information you had at that time. If you get new information after the fact, but cannot go back to alter your decision, don’t feel foolish because that new information wasn’t available to you then.
Typically, when there is a bad outcome that you are responsible for, your decision making is questioned. No need to be defensive. If you’ve done your homework, you can calmly explain what led you to make the call. Have little regard for Monday morning quarterbacks that seem to always be able to predict failure after the fact. If you are the subject matter expert and have done your research then you are the authority and have all reason to remain confident even after a setback.
To be results-oriented is to be miserable
Even the best decision making will sometimes lead to bad outcomes. In poker you can be an 80% favorite to win when you call that all in and still lose. In business, you can be convinced that the person you were hiring had all the potential to be extraordinary and then realize a year in that there is no ambition to make that potential a reality. Don’t be hard on yourself when that happens.
Being constantly a favorite still means that you might fail one out of six times. And it’s perfectly possible to fail three times in a row even. I am not thrilled about a bad outcome but lingering on them doesn’t do any good. So instead I remain content, keep educating myself and know that results will follow.
All we can do is try to keep making good choices. While some will bear no fruits and you can expect to experience short-term failures, in the long run you will come out ahead and get closer to your goals. Move on, without regret, and keep making decisions that you stand by.
