Elon Musk Life Meaning EXPLAINED
Evaluating the Branching Stream of Probabilities
Since childhood Elon Musk has envisioned the creation of a space-faring civilization.
He’s so excited by this vision he sets ambitious deadlines to achieve it faster.
I discussed this more in a previous article [Elon Musk Life Purpose EXPLAINED], but in this article I want to dive deeper into another reason why this spacey vision motivates him…
He believes the most important thing we can do to protect our existence from a single doomsday event is to become a multi-planetary species.
“I think we have a duty to maintain the light of consciousness to make sure it continues into the future.” — Elon Musk
Which means if he succeeds in colonizing mars then he could one day look back at Earth and say that his existence mattered because he helped humanity’s existence continue.
But what if in this moment, someone walked up, tapped him on the shoulder and said… “We would have gotten to mars eventually without you.”
Ouch.
I think a lot of us struggle with, Why do I matter? If I never wrote this article then you could read a million other articles on Life Lessons or Elon Musk.
But the way Elon Musk approaches this existential question is by looking at the future in terms of probabilities.
“I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It’s like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity.”
In other words he sees the future in terms of the certain and uncertain. Sustainable energy will happen with or without Elon Musk. It’s inevitable.
“Then there’s becoming a multi-planet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It’s very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.”
According to Elon Musk, becoming a space-faring civilization is both critical and uncertain, which means Elon Musk’s existence matters more because he increases the probability of becoming multi-planetary.
So if a global apocalypses happens and if Elon Musk succeeded, a martian could then say, “Humanity still exists because Elon Musk existed.”
And to the guy who says, “We would have gotten to mars eventually without you.”, Elon Musk could respond, “Unlikely.”
But even if something is inevitable is there still meaning in doing it?
Elon Musk says yes as evidenced by the question he asked himself in college…
What are the 5 areas that will have the most important effect on the future of humanity?
A.I.
Internet
Space
Genetics
Sustainable Energy
He then built successful companies in those areas: PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla, SolarCity, OpenAI.
“I could either watch it happen or be a part of it.” — Elon Musk
How is there meaning though in simply being a part of something you believed would have happened anyway?
There is meaning in accelerating the inevitable such as sustainable energy because the quicker the world has sustainable energy the easier it will be to tackle the more uncertain aspects of the future, such as climate change and space.
The internet was largely inevitable, but because Bill Gates and Steve Jobs accelerated its usage, I get to write this article on my Mac using Microsoft Word.
And if you applaud this article you’ll help garner more attention for Elon Musk, which means in a small way you’ll increase the probability of us becoming a multi-planetary species.
I think another fun way to understand probability streams is by playing a little game I call, What’s Your Existence Worth?
What’s Your Existence Worth?
Step 1
What are 5 goals that would help humanity?
Brainstorming Ideas: make country leader in STEM, eliminate global poverty, find cure for cancer, basic income, national ID card, eliminate death penalty, decriminalize marijuana, global A.I. regulatory council, Tom Cruise cloning, etc…
Step 2
How will you help accomplish these goals?
Brainstorming Ideas: Create company or organization, join company or organization, donate money, create a Medium publication for dog lovers, create a new park in neighborhood, purchase products in area, blog about it, etc…
Step 3
And then for each goal estimate…
- 0–100% Probability (How inevitable is goal success?)
- 1–5 Stream Size (How much goal positively impacts humanity?)
- 1–10 Efficacy Size (How much you positively impact goal stream?)
Multiply each bullet and you get your existence points!
This game is just a silly way to combat the logical side of your brain that might get occasionally stuck in existential crisis mode.
Elon Musk’s existence points might look something like this…
“When something is important enough you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.” — Elon Musk
Create Sustainable Energy (Tesla & SolarCity)
- 80% probability*
- 4 stream size
- 8 efficacy
20 x 4 x 8 = 640 existence points.
Become Multi-Planetary Species (SpaceX)
- 40% probability*
- 5 stream size
- 8 efficacy
60 x 5 x 8 =2400 existence points.
Make Internet Commerce Commonplace (PayPal)
- 90% probability*
- 3 stream size
- 7 efficacy
10 x 3 x 7=210 existence points.
*Multiply inverse of probability so if probability is 63 then multiply with inverse number 37.
How many existence points do you have?
“I think it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary.” — Elon Musk
Bonus Step
Where do you get most of your existence points from? Are you more of a revolutionary or an accelerator?
Accelerators (make the certain happen sooner, above 50% probability) and Revolutionaries (make the uncertain happen, under 50% probability).
Andrew Carnegie was an accelerator. He built the largest steel company in the world, which drove down the cost of steel. Cheaper steel made it less cost prohibitive to build skyscrapers, railroads, cars, and factories. U.S. Steel therefore helped accelerate U.S. industrialization, but the Industrial Revolution would have happened eventually with or without Carnegie.
Peter the Great was a revolutionary. When he became Tsar, Russia was a feudal society stuck in religious dogma. Against the wishes of his peers he westernized the country. He built Saint Petersburg from scratch. He built the navy from scratch. He centralized power into a more western styled bureaucracy and severely limited the power of the church.
George Washington was both. He was the general of the American colonial forces. In defeating the British he helped accelerate American independence, but American independence would have happened eventually with or without George Washington. What was not guaranteed though was the passage of the U.S. Constitution. The founding fathers agreed that without George Washington there would be no passage and therefore no United States of America.
