Equation for ICO’s Expected Funding Level

With an Excel file and industry market map for separating success from failure

Sean M Everett
Jul 20, 2017 · 7 min read

I. Setting the Stage

We’re going ever deeper into the ICO space here at The Mission and it’s child publication, Humanizing Tech. What started 6 months ago on The Base Code Fund’s investment into Ethereum as well as various conversations with a few knowledgeable players in the industry, from hedge funds to new ICO practitioners to even some folks building a new exchange, it’s always been our goal to open-source the knowledge and tools that we use.

II. ICO Funding Equation

From the data set we extracted there were a total of 200 recent ICOs (i.e., 2017-ish), both currently offering tokens and ones that had closed. I have a feeling Smith + Crown removed the scams and BS ICOs, which is why we don’t see a list of 800 total coins that I’ve read are currently being traded.

Data Source: https://www.smithandcrown.com/icos/ as of July 20, 2017
  • 2E+09 is a shorthand for 2x10⁹ or 2 with 9 zeroes behind it
  • x^-2.369 is where you input where you think you are going to fall along that 1 through 45 company line. So enter a number, 1 or 2 or 3 etc. That part is up to you based on your confidence of an ICO.

III. The Market Map

The next step in any type of analysis like this is to start to identify the types of projects that are successful and compare them to the types that are not. In doing some, we can begin to develop a gut feel for what has a higher probability of success and what doesn’t.

  1. The next big area is platforms. The ole startup platform play. Today, if you’re not a platform, yer nuthin’. So, we’re going to see platforms for everything start to play out. And then, a platform for platforms. Oy. It’s going to get messy.
  2. The last area we’re seeing is the emergence of consumer-based coins. Something directly related to everyday people. It’s very small, and emerging, but as we know from the rest of the tech industry, the consumer side always creates the most value. It’s not the OLED display maker who is gaining all the profits, but rather Apple with the fully integrated iPhone.

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Thanks to Mission

Sean M Everett

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We invented stories, animated emojis, choose-your-own-adventure movies, personalized linear channels, and biological intelligence http://everettadvisors.com

Mission.org

A network of business & tech podcasts designed to accelerate learning. Selected as “Best of 2018” by Apple. Mission.org

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