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Why Most Plans are Terrible. And How to Improve Them.

It’s Time to Get Comfortable with Uncertainty.

Photo by rawpixel on Unsplash

Conjunctive and Disjunctive Events

“We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.” — Nate Silver

Expect the Unexpected

“The unexpected always happens — the unexpected is indeed the only thing one can confidently expect. And almost never is it a pleasant surprise.” — Peter Drucker, The Effective Executive

“It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”

Prepare for the Worst

Planning Over Plans

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower

“Our ability to cope with uncertainty is one of the most important requirements for success in life, yet also one of the most neglected. We may not appreciate just how often we’re required to exercise it, and how much impact our ability to do so can have on our lives, and even on the whole of society.”

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Jake Wilder

I don’t know where I’m going. But at least I know how to get there.