QuEra’s Near-Term Roadmap

The Believable Roadmap

Brian N. Siegelwax
The Modern Scientist


4 Reasons Why I Believe It

On January 9, 2024, QuEra unveiled its near-term roadmap. If any other company published this, I would dismiss it outright. But this one is believable for 4 reasons.

1. Past Tense

QuEra has already participated in the demonstration of 48 logical qubits using 280 physical qubits. Yes, that’s a small code, but a roadmap based on logical qubits is made more believable knowing that it’s building on top of previous experimentation with logical qubits.

2. Present Tense

The goal for 2024 is 256+ physical qubits encoding 10 logical qubits. They’ve already demonstrated they can go above 256, so let’s check that box. And while I don’t follow QECC all that closely, my oversimplified interpretation of this goal is that they’re going to encode more physical qubits per logical qubit to reduce error rates. I’m classifying this as believable since they already have the number of physical qubits they need.

3. Future Tense

Since it’s only January 2024, they’re giving themselves a full year to triple the number of logical qubits from 10 in 2024 to 30 in 2025, with even more physical qubits per logical qubit and even lower error rates. They’re giving themselves another full year after that to triple…