The Return of History
From Moscow to D.C, officials are feeling nostalgic. Maybe they miss the terrifying simplicity of the atomic age, or perhaps a West vs. Russia proxy war in Ukraine has everyone giddy, but as Ukraine’s ceasefire dissolves again into civil war, policymakers are falling back on Cold War strategies to “win” in Ukraine. The dizzying blend of sanctions, denunciations, and covert warfare is lazy foreign policy, a knee jerk reaction that ignores Ukraine’s suffering while worsening the crisis. If a new Cold War was preventable a year ago, Russia and the West seem eager to ensure one now.
Part of the problem is that neither side’s beliefs about the other have fundamentally changed in the last 30 years — Russia and the West still see internal contradictions in their opponent that they hope to exploit. Russia sees American and EU declarations about international law and human rights as bluster, a rhetorical disguise for lack of will. Russia has continued military aid to Ukrainian rebels, reduced gas supply to Europe, and strengthened bonds with pro-Russian breakaway republics outside Ukraine, aiming to highlight Western impotence. Empires aren’t cheap, and Russia wants to show that it will pay more in blood and treasure than the West can afford.
Alternately, the West’s response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has been to strengthen sanctions, believing that wrecking the Russian economy will force Putin’s hand. Western diplomats assume that Russia’s oil reliance and rampant corruption are a lethal mix — a combination of sanctions and cheap oil will tank the economy, draining popular support while making Putin’s bribe-obsessed cronies turn on him. Surely, Putin would rather give up on Ukraine than risk power at home?
Although it remains an open question, Western officials are assuming this approach will work as they draw the noose of sanctions tighter. The U.K. is spearheading an effort to expel Russia from The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or “SWIFT,” effectively removing Russia from the international financial system. Prime Minister Medvedev warned that Russia’s response would be “without limits,” destroying hopes for Russian cooperation on Ukraine in the near future. Sanctioning Russia allows Western politicians to appear tough on Russia, without the risk of offering substantial financial or military aid to Kyiv. If sanctions work, it may take years, and in the meantime Ukrainians feel alone against Russia.
The real danger of using the Cold War playbook in the 21st century is that no one knows what the consequences will be. Both Russia and the West have successfully executed their policies: Ukraine is in flames and Russia’s economy is in a nosedive, but the result is more terrifying than the original problem. Western-engineered financial chaos in Russia may only worsen the crisis, ushering in a return of a nuclear-armed struggle thought dead since the fall of the Soviet Union. Perhaps only when air-raid drills make a return will the nostalgia wear off.
Originally published on The New Russians, newrussians.wordpress.com, on February 1st, 2015.
