64 Million Shades of Johansen
The Nashville Predators just unloaded a Brinks truck on the front lawn of their first-line centre Ryan Johansen. Alec Avedissian breaks down whether or not the investment was worth it.
The Nashville Predators recently awarded their top pivot Ryan Johansen a shiny new contract totalling at eight years and $64 million.
What a time to be alive.
With Johansen agreeing to the deal, he is being rewarded with the richest contract offered in Predators history. Former Preds captain Shea Weber signed a larger contract a few years back as the result of an offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers, while current teammate PK Subban’s $9 million per-year salary was brought in via trade, ironically for Shea Weber.
The question on my mind is whether or not Ryan Johansen merits such a significant payday.
Is Johansen truly an eight-by-eight player?
Going into next season, Ryan Johansen is slated to become the 9th highest paid centerman in the NHL, making $8 million per season. This salary puts him in the same category as Joe Thornton, Ryan Getzlaf, Claude Giroux and Steven Stamkos. All of these players have cap hits ranging in between 8–8.5 million. At some point in their careers, they have all been elite centremen in the league. Each has at least a handful of seasons in which they finished among the top three in regular season scoring.
Johansen finished this season tied for 36th in scoring with 61 points in 82 games. His career high came in 2014–15 while still a member of the Blue Jackets. He put up 71 points in 82 games, good for 16th in the league, but he more consistently hovers around the 60 point plateau. Looking only at the centre position, if you take the top 10 scorers in each of the past four seasons, their average production comes just a fraction under 78 points on average. This suggests to us that Joey needs to elevate his game another notch or two (or eighteen) before he really earns his current raise.
How much is Johansen worth?
To determine how much Johansen is worth, one has to find comparable players who are in the same conversation as a fringe #1 center or 1B centre who had similar production and ages at the time of their “bridge contracts” expiring. After looking at each team’s depth charts, there are three clear comparables to be looked at. listed averages of their pre contract seasons as well as their zone deployment (offensive zone and defensive zone) to highlight any discrepancies in player usage. Their raw point totals represent their production in all situations whereas their points per 60 minutes (p/60) and zone starts factor only their time on even strength.
A good baseline for the even-strength production of a first-line player is about two points per 60 minutes. Given that statement, Johansen clearly is not in the same production class as his comparables. Kuznetsov did face much more favorable usage than Johansen, but Kuzy struggled heavily in the first half of the season before eventually finding his rhythm. His contract was earned largely on the back of his last season, where he threw up 77 points in 82 games while also facing a more balanced usage than he did this season. There’s no reason to expect he won’t bounce back to form.
My favourite comparable of the pack has to be Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets, as both are young, powerful playmakers with high offensive ceilings and similar draft pedigrees (RoJo went 4th in ’10 and Scheifs went 7th in ‘11). Scheifele lacked a 70+ point season under his belt at the time he signed his extension as well as a few years of experience on Joey. However even Johansen’s 71 point season only comes up to a .86 points per game average which is equal to what Scheifs had put up in his contract season.
Since breaking into the NHL, Scheifele has increased his point totals by at least a 12 point margin each season, before eventually breaking out this season with 82 points in 79 games. This cannot be said for the mostly stagnant production of Johansen. Scheifele’s even-strength production is also off the charts, especially given how young he is and that one would imagine he can still improve his game. RyJo does boast a slightly better defensive game, as well as a higher faceoff percentage in this past season. (54.6 FO% vs 43.6%). All things considered, I have a hard time believing Johansen is worth almost two million dollars more than Scheifele.
But actually, how much is RoJo worth?
Factoring in past production, as well as his potential, the length in deal, and how dependant the Predators are on him at his position, in my opinion Johansen is worth about $6.65 — $7 million annually on a long term deal. Given his leverage on the club, I still wasn’t shocked to see him sign for $8 million. Even though the Predators overpaid, I don’t think this contract will turn into a noose in the long run, even if Johansen only improves marginally.
There’s always a chance that RoJo will break out at some point during the next eight years, as he is still an extremely talented player and will be given every chance to succeed in Smashville.
Alec Avedissian is a hockey contributor for TheOcho.ca.
