Blackhawks Down?
Having failed to make it out of the first round for two years in a row, Alec Avedissian analyzes the apparent regression of the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Chicago Blackhawks are arguably the best dynasty in the NHL’s post lockout era. That take would have gone undisputed before the Penguins won back to back championships in the past two seasons. The Blackhawks won three Stanley cups in a six year span (2010, 2013 and 2015), but in the past two seasons they have failed to advance past the first round, most notably getting swept this year by the eventual Western Conference Champion Nashville Predators. The Hawks only managed to score three goals over the four game series.
After each cup win, the Blackhawks were forced to gut themselves in the offseason in order to lock up their core of Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Corey Crawford. They always managed to bounce back without skipping much of a beat, and up until their 2015 Cup win, they still managed to be one of the best possession teams in the NHL. In 2014, they had the second highest team Corsi rating, and in 2015 they were still fourth best league-wide. Over the past two seasons, they have dropped to the middle of the pack, coming in 16th and 15th respectively. This has surely had an impact on their recent post-season woes.
After winning their most recent Cup, the team had to part with two of their top-six forwards; longtime Blackhawk Patrick Sharp and young stud Brandon Saad. Both had significant impacts on the team’s success are very well rounded players. To offset their losses, they brought over KHL standout and offensive dynamo Artemi Panarin. Panarin gelled instantly with Hawks superstar Patrick Kane, creating one of the most lethal duos in the NHL. Panarin had put up 151 points over the span of 162 games in his two seasons with the Blackhawks, hitting the 30-goal plateau in both. He has great possession numbers playing 5-on-5 (54.6%) as well as points per 60 minutes (2.10). An average 1st line players production should be around the 2 point mark. He is also very effective on the power play, putting up 17 of his 74 points this season while up a man.
However, for all of his offensive talent, Artemi was a huge liability in the defensive end and was used in an incredibly sheltered role. He started a league low 10.92% of his total shift starts in the defensive zone. The 2nd lowest player is Evgeni Malkin at 18.5%. After those two, most other defensively deficient/sheltered forwards hover at just over the 20% mark. Panarin is by far the most protected player in the league, certainly having wreaked its fair share of havoc on the Blackhawks once dominant two way game.
Furthermore, after the playoffs finished, vaunted two-way forward Marian Hossa as well as fleet-footed veteran defenceman Brian Campbell both informed Chicago general manager Stan Bowman that they would not be playing hockey next season. Hossa due to complications from a treatment for a skin disorder he received and Brian Campbell deciding to announce his retirement from the NHL to join the Blackhawks front office, these developments continue to punish the Blackhawks ability to play in their own zone.
Another factor in Chicago’s timbering playoff performances is the regression of Brent Seabrook.
Seabrook, 32, is a lifelong Blackhawk who has been one of the league’s most consistent two-way defenders over the past decade. However, despite his reputation, he has seen his defensive play drop off steadily in recent years. Seabrook hasn’t been an above average two way player since the 2011–2012 season, where he ranked in the top 40% of shot generators and the top third of shot suppressors among defensemen. Each season since then, his shot suppression numbers have dropped off, and this past season he finished in the bottom tier (bottom 10%) of shot suppressors despite averaging roughly the same top minutes. His production has been much steadier in that time frame, but he was never noted for being a top notch point producer, always playing second fiddle to Duncan Keith. Unfortunately Seabrook also still has 6 years and a $6.875 million cap hit on his contract. Factoring in his age and regression, it won’t be long before he becomes an albatross to the always cash-strapped Blackhawks.
The top three defensemen over the duration of Chicago’s dominance (Keith, Seabrook and Niklas Hjalmarsson) are all between the ages of 31–33, and the Hawks don’t have a lot of high end talent in the pipeline ready for big minutes on the backend. In an attempt to get younger and save a sliver on their salary cap, they moved their defensive stalwart Hjalmarsson, who has been a Blackhawk for the past 10 seasons, to Arizona for former first round pick Connor Murphy and Laurent Dauphin, a young, well rounded forward who will be vying for a roster spot come training camp.
Hjalmarsson had top tier shot suppression numbers this past season while Murphy struggled along with the rest of his Coyote teammates to produce positive numbers in almost every aspect imaginable. He could see his numbers improve on Chicago though, as he did post the best possession numbers of any other Coyote defenseman. The Hawks will need to replace Hjalmarsson’s role by committee, and due to their lack of depth it seems like a tall ask. Hjalmarsson’s defensive acumen covered for many holes in the Blackhawks. His ability to take on a big workload is underrated, as he played the third most minutes last season among all Blackhawks players after Keith and Kane.
Later on in the same day in an attempt to improve their all around game, Chicago traded Artemi Panarin to Columbus for their former wonder child Brandon Saad. Saad is a much more well rounded player who surprisingly also produces a better P/60 rate. Despite getting 15% more defensive zone starts than Panarin, he averaged 2.21 to “The Breadman” 2.10. The biggest tradeoff seems to be powerplay production, as Saad only put up 3 power play points last season. That said, his defensive play, dependability, and flexibility through the lineup should be worth much more for the team as a whole. Bowman also brought Sharp back via free agency. While he seems to be a shell of his former self after a down year in Dallas, he should still be a dependable top-nine player who can help offset the loss of Hossa.
I expect the Blackhawks to regress during the regular season, but I do expect the moves they made to help them in the future, as well as to help build a more well-rounded team. Nobody should be surprised if the Hawks bounce back during the playoffs next year. If they manage to get some momentum going, they are a very tough team to stop. However, the real question will be if their already thin defence can step up in the absence of Niklas Hjalmarsson. Expecting the defence to improve on their play from last year is unrealistic, but if they can maintain the status quo or minimize their mistakes as a group, their newly retooled forward crop should be able to support them. It seems like coach Joel Quenville has his work cut out for him this year, and much will be said about where their franchise stands moving forward. The past few seasons they have accumulated a fair share of critics.
One thing is certain: Chicago will certainly be one of the more interesting teams to watch this season.
Alec Avedissian is a hockey contributor for TheOcho.ca.
