Blue Jays Season Primer
Josh Higgs chimes in on what we should expect from the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays.
Coming off an 89 win season where they snuck into the top Wild Card spot, the expectations for the 2017 Blue Jays should rival that of the 2016 squad.
With a couple caveats, that is.
Any team that loses a player the calibre of Edwin Encarnacion is going to take a dip offensively. It’s very hard to replace a guy who mashes 42 bombs, drives in 127 runs, walks 12.4% of the time, and carries a .263/.357/.529 triple slash line. The reality of losing him for what Cleveland paid (3yr/60m) is a hard pill for Jays fans to swallow. Let’s not also discount his defensive ability. He grades out as an average defender at first base, with a UZR of 1.7. The Jays are losing a monster offensive producer who can also hold his own defensively.
The Jays also lost Michael Saunders, a player who played slightly above replacement level. Saunders had an excellent first half of the season, and struggled mightily in the second half. His defence was very porous, which essentially relegated him to being an average MLB player, as indicated by his 1.4 WAR.
So how does the Blue Jays brain trust fill the voids left by these two players? They add Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce. Not to mention handing the full time first base job to Justin Smoak.
Morales has DH written all over him. He brings a quality offensive profile, but he can’t play a lick of defence. Last season he swatted 30 homers, drove in 93 runs, but only walked 7.8% of the time. He had a virtually equal strikeout rate to Encarnacion’s at about 19.5% and a triple slash of .263/.327/.468. That said, these numbers were put up at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City (a pitcher friendly park) for the majority of the season. It is reasonable to expect the home run numbers to stay the same or increase within the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.
The loss of Saunders was replaced by the tandem of Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera. Pearce has never played in more than 102 MLB games in one season, and for good reason. He is not an everyday starter. He brings a decent bat that can generate a solid average and OBP, but lacks in the power department. Defensively, he is versatile as he’s “able” to play multiple positions (1B, 2B, OF) but hardly at a palatable level. Having Carrera will diversify the lineup a bit by adding speed and good defence, but the Jays ultimately replaced Saunders with guys who have inferior bats.
Last but not least, the roster turnover is essentially handing Justin Smoak the reigns at first base. Over the past 4 years, his power output has dropped alarmingly, and his strikeout percentage has increased each season. Last year he struck out a career high 32.8% of his at bats, and he boasts a disastrous career strikeout rate of 23.9%. Things don’t look pretty at first base.
In the bullpen, losses of Brett Cecil and Joaquin Benoit were mitigated by the additions of Joe Smith and JP Howell. This was a quality move, adding two veteran relievers that are extremely cost effective. Nothing can destroy a team more than giving relievers giant contracts as they can implode at any moment. (Paging BJ Ryan…) The bullpen seems to be about the same as last year, although the team seems to be teetering on whether to use Biagini as a starter or reliever.
The Blue Jays have a tremendous rotation, anchored by electric arm Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, the wily veteran Francisco Liriano, and Marcus Stroman. If the Jays are going to repeat the success of last season, they must remain healthy.
Veteran leaders Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, and Jose Bautista should all perform as expected, although we could see regression from the latter two due to age.
The team should expect to fight for a wild card spot. Virtually every AL Central team except Cleveland is in rebuild mode. All AL East teams have pitching rotations in complete disarray, and there’s a number of factors that could create contenders or pretenders in the AL West. It seems very plausible this squad could win 88 or more games and clinch a wild card, but topping Boston for the division might take a miracle.
Best Case Scenario
The pitching staff stays healthy. The offense doesn’t regress without the presence of Encarnacion, but Stroman should have a bounce back year. This team has experienced an excellent run of healthy arms. Duplicating that combined with high octane offense and some adequate depth can definitely place this team on a playoff trajectory for the 2017 season.
Worst Case Scenario
The injury bug bites hard. There’s not much depth down on the farm, so an injury could really hurt the squad. There are no elite level prospects ready to come up and contribute, so any injury would need to addressed by a depth signing or via trade.
Players Trending Upwards
Marcus Stroman. Stro-Show sported an uncharacteristically high 4.37 ERA, and 1.289 WHIP this past season, but his season was a tale of two halves. Stroman managed to knock a full run off his ERA in the second half while striking out the same amount of batters in 125 fewer second-half plate appearances. He essentially had one bad month in June that decimated his overall stats, so look for better number this season.
Players Trending Downwards
The rotation, and the offence. A little general, but with the unparalleled success of virtually every arm in the rotation it seems unfathomable that they can replicate that success. Where the arrow truly points down is on the offence. Losing Edwin while having an aged lineup of Tulo, Martin, and Bautista is a recipe for a down year offensively.
Oh, and Justin Smoak, ‘nuff Said.
Season Prediction
88–74, finishing up in the 1st Wildcard. Still competitive, but a step back from last year.
Future After This Season
If the team succeeds, it would be difficult to resign Estrada. If he performs strongly this season, he could command up to 20 million a season over a 3–5 year contract. This team should go all-in while Martin and Tulo are under contract, then sell high on aging veterans. Any struggling years hurts the Jays’ chances of resigning Donaldson in a couple years, so they’re operating in a small competitive window and should take complete advantage for the next 2–3 years.
If this squad struggles this year, it would be hard to sell off players for prospects. Martin, Tulo, and Morales have huge contracts, making them virtually unmovable. Donaldson won’t be considered to be traded until next offseason. Players who could be dealt if the Jays fall out of contention are Estrada, Liriano, Grilli, Smith, and Howell. All these players could help fill a role for a contender and would come at a low cost.
If this team does falter, hopefully they will fire John Gibbons. He is the most inept MLB manager in the game today. Gibbons isn’t a master tactician, and his record in one-run games is atrocious. The Blue Jays are 33 games under .500 in one-run games since his return. The guy is a complete clown, as seen in the playoffs this past year when Cleveland’s Terry Francona managed circles around him.
Let’s hope the Jays have an excellent healthy season culminating in a playoff birth, and that they can continue to build for future seasons, whether that means building in their competitive window or building for the future with prospects.
JOSH is a baseball contributor for theocho.ca. By day he teaches in schools or works at gas stations. By night he’s watching hours of sports and brainstorming his next article.
