Fantasy Friday: Top 10 players not to reach for in 2017
In the first of a two-part series, Aaron takes a look at which players you shouldn’t reach for this year.
There’s something about the build-up to a new fantasy football season. The anticipation, the hope, the fear.
It all comes together to make for a busy few months, as fantasy players begin scanning mock drafts and ranking boards — all in hopes that they might take the crown.
If you are looking to take your league’s iron throne, making cold and calculated decisions is key. This means ensuring that you know where to take your shots and keep things conservative.
Let’s check out some big names that you should let your other buddies reach for this upcoming season.
10. Jordan Howard
This one hurts. As a huge Bears fan there is nothing more that I would like to do this year. Take Howard way before anyone even thinks about it, and live the fan boy dream. However, that is the same thing I did last year with Jeremy Langford — and that didn’t exactly work out. Yes, Chicago is going to have to pound the ball with a lack of talent at receiver. However, that means Howard will be running into a lot of stacked boxes this upcoming season. Taking Howard late in the second round makes a lot of sense as a shier result of his workload, but taking him in the first will mean that you have likely passed up on a top-flight receiver. Don’t (so I can).
9. Todd Gurley
This one also hurts. I took a shot on Gurley in one of my leagues last season at eighth overall — and boy, was that a mistake. Gurley is a talented player with the ability to hurt a defense through the air or on the ground. However, until the Rams can show a balanced offensive attack, Gurley will fall victim to the same phenomenon as Howard. Last season, defenses were immediately keying on Gurley, making it hard for him to find space on the field. If Gurley really takes a dive this year (and I think he will) taking him late in the second round or early in the third round would be a viable option. However, as long as the Rams struggle on offense he is someone you shouldn’t be reaching for.
8. DeAndre Hopkins
If you need more info on this one, make sure to contact our Riley Editor-in-Chief Riley Evans. Riley had to autodraft last season and ended up taking Lamar Miller and DeAndre, going all in on Houston. Long story short, it didn’t work out. Despite the fact that Houston’s offense will likely have more of a rhythm this season, I expect that no matter who ends up being the QB (and I think it’s entirely realistic that we see Watson finish the season for Houston) they will spread the ball around to the variety of playmakers they have accumulated in Houston. Hopkins is another good grab late second or mid third round if you are looking for a big playmaker that may not accumulate a ton of receptions.
7. Jordan Reed
This one actually has no personal story attached to it. I think Reed is an absolute baller — when healthy. However, for fantasy owners there is nothing more frustrating than having a player riding your bench all year, just waiting for him to get on a healthy streak so he can produce for you. This is especially true at the TE position. Kirk is a good QB, and if healthy it’s fair to say that Reed will be leaned on (alongside Terrelle Pryor) to make things happen in the passing game after losing Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson during the offseason. When it comes to the TE position this season, I would consider taking an absolute lock (like Olsen or Kelce) earlier in the draft rather than take a swing at a guy that will have at least two concussions this season. If he falls to the fourth or maybe fifth round I would consider bringing him on, and then likely drafting a young tight end like Engram from NY in case things go south.
6. Demaryius Thomas
I just want to throw this out there — I love me some Demaryius. He played for Georgia Tech, which is the same school my oldest brother graduated from, as well as some guy named Calvin Johnson Jr. However, the young core of quarterbacks that Elway has acquired after losing one of the greatest QB’s to ever play the game does not do well for the fantasy value of Denver’s wideouts. Expect Denver to really try and pound the ball and get it out of their young QB’s hands fast on rhythm throws this season. Based on the past few seasons with Denver, I wouldn’t be surprised if Demaryius ends his run with another team over the next the seasons or just vanishes completely as a result of the amount of weapons at Denver’s disposal, coupled with the lack of a deep ball that his production is often predicated on.
If DT makes it to the late fourth of fifth round, I would give him a look, but he just doesn’t have enough upside to make him worth anything more.
5. Keenan Allen
Yeah, yeah now I am just picking on injured players. But this is a huge phenomenon when it comes to fantasy football. Players will sit out entire seasons, only to be taken way too early by some dummy that didn’t watch more than six games last year. Keenan Allen is one of these guys. With the emergence of Mike Williams and Hunter Henry in LA’s passing attack, look for Allen’s production to be lower than expected, even if he manages to stay relatively healthy (which is something he has struggled to do recently). Unless you already have two solid options at receiver on your roster I would not be counting on Allen to deliver the WR1 or WR2 production that you will need to bring home first place.
4. Mark Ingram
Do you remember 2009? The New Orleans Saints won their first Super Bowl in franchise history — and they had three-headed monster at RB. The committee was made up of Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. The three combined for 2,486 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Fast forward to 2017, the Saints have reignited that offensive philosophy by signing Adrian “All Day” Peterson and drafting Alvin Kamara out of Tennessee, who will act as a scat back in the system. Despite the mention of total production previously mentioned, none of these guys will have a stranglehold on touches in 2017. Ingram and Peterson will still be valuable draft commodities based on the way the team has been constructed. However, neither present a reason to reach. Ingram looks like a solid RB2 or a really good RB3/Flex.
3. Any Bengal RB
Fully loaded with Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati goes and gets prime boom or bust candidate Joe Mixon out of Oklahoma. Now, let me say this: one of these guys is a must-own RB this season — but which one? Hill is coming into a contract year wherein he doesn’t know his future with the franchise after the Bengals grabbed Mixon in the second round. Bernard seems to be the obvious choice. This is because Gio has the ability to break out in the run or pass game (primo for PPR leagues). However, with the Bengals version of the aforementioned New Orleans blueprint in hand, it is unlikely Gio will see a lot of red zone touches. It’s fair to say that Hill will slide this year, likely to the fourth or maybe even fifth round. If that’s the case, he could be worth taking a shot. However, I wouldn’t pull the trigger without a solid RB1/RB2 already in hand.
2. Jonathan Stewart
Times are a-changin’ in Carolina. The Panthers are trying to get faster at all positions, and they came away with Christian McCaffrey out of Stanford in this year’s draft. This isn’t to say that Stewart won’t still get the majority of the touches this season, but it does mean that he has far less upside with a shiny new toy at Ron Rivera’s disposal. Stewart could end up bringing you great value if he slides to the fourth or fifth round, but taking him in the first three would be too soon for a RB that lacks upside.
1. LaGarrette Blount
If you have made it this far, you deserve a hot take, so here it is.
Let it be known that I love the addition of Blount to this year’s Eagles team. I think that it brings some grit into the backfield that they have lacked for quite some time. However, based on his league-leading 18 touchdown season — Blount is going to be a coveted asset this season. After finishing in the top ten for scoring last year among RBs, I couldn’t see him sliding past the late-second to early third round — and that is if he drops. RBs are becoming increasingly valuable in fantasy football with the fewer bell cow backs in the NFL. Blount has that opportunity here. However after drafting a RB and still having Matthews on the squad (who is a Grade A bum IMO) look for Philly to screw this one up and keep Blount out of rhythm or lean too heavily on the passing game in the red zone with the addition of Alshon Jeffrey.
Aaron Lieberman is a cofounder of The Ocho, as well as our fantasy editor. You can catch him (almost) every week on The Ocho Podcast on Thursday nights with fellow cofounder Riley Nicklaus Evans. Follow Aaron on Twitter at @aliebs93.
