JD’s Moving, and He’s Not Alone.
JD Martinez is leaving Detroit, but he’s not the only person rumoured to be on the move. Josh Higgs breaks down the five (ok, six) big trades most likely to happen before the MLB non-waiver deadline.
With the MLB non-waiver trade deadline approaching on July 31st and several teams jockeying for playoff contention, the following is a list of the top players likely to dealt by the trade deadline.
1. JD Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ slugging outfielder is a free agent at seasons end, and with the struggles the Tigers are currently experiencing, it seems evident that he will soon be jettisoned off. He carries a cool .308 average, .389 on base percentage, and a .636 slugging percentage. Couple that with 16 homers on the year, a 12.2% walk rate, and a 23.1% strikeout rate. It’s fair to say he’s a career year.
What better time to have one on your walk year?
He will be the most highly sought after trade piece come the deadline, and he should fetch the Tigers some key building blocks for the future. Teams interested include the LA Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Colorado Rockies.
Prediction: With two starting outfielders injured (Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk), I think the St. Louis Cardinals will acquire JD Martinez for fireballer pitching prospects Sandy Alcantara, Junior Fernandez, and OF prospect Magneuris Sierra.
RESULT: The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired Martinez in exchange for INF’s Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara & Jose King.
2. Sonny Gray, RHP, Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s kickstarted their rebuilding efforts earlier this week by trading away Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to Washington. The next BIG domino to fall should be Sonny Gray. Gray currently carries a 3.72 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, a dazzling 8.40 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9. Despite his uncharacteristically high ERA (which can be attributed to Oaklands God-awful defense) he’s basically performing like a number one or two pitcher when you consider his high strikeout rate and very low rate of allowing baserunners. He’s under contract for this and two more , so any team acquiring him will have this young stud pitcher for a long time. Every contender should have interest in him, with teams such as the LA Dodgers, Colorado, Milwaukee, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, NY Yankees, Minnesota, Seattle, and LA Angels.
Prediction: Being the top team in the AL and having an extremely deep farm system should allow the Houston Astros to fetch Gray for 15th overall rated pitching prospect Francis Martes, 70th ranked outfield prospect Derek Fisher, and infield prospect Colin Moran.
3. Todd Frazier, 3B, Chicago White Sox
When thinking about Frazier, only one word comes to mind:
Power.
He’s hit 29 or more home runs in three consecutive seasons, 75 in the past two, and is on pace for another 30+ homer season this year. Unfortunately, like most sluggers, he struggles to make consistent contact, as he’s currently sporting a .207 average, a .328 OBP, and a .432 SLG. His low contact can be attributed to his higher than normal flyball rates (46.2%), pull rates (49.5%), and soft contact rates (23.4%), all of which are near their worst levels since he entered the majors. He’s clearly pressing at the plate and trying to overcompensate, swinging for fences every time instead of collecting a nice hit here and there.
Frazier brings a quality power bat and is a capable fielder at third, so a change of scenery to teams such as the NY Yankees, Boston Red Sox or Milwaukee Brewers might help this impending free agent.
Prediction: The Boston Red Sox will acquire the slugging third baseman and relief Pitcher Tommy Kahnle, filling two major holes at third base and the bullpen, for infield prospect Michael Chavis and pitching prospect Brian Johnson.
4. David Robertson, RHP, Chicago White Sox and Addison Reed, RHP, New York Mets
I’ve put these two together because I think they are the two top closers on the market, and there are a myriad of teams hoping to acquire either (paging the New York Yankees and the Washington Nationals). Robertson used the 2014 season with the Yankees to establish himself as a dominant closer in the game, and parlayed that into a huge four year contract with the White Sox. Any team acquiring him will have him for this and next season, and he boasts a 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a stellar 12.69 K/9 so far this season.
Reed inherited the closer role for the Mets when Jeurys Familia went down with a season ending injury. Since then, he has been lights-out to the tune of a 2.47 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 9.27 K/9. Every team will be interested in these two arms, but I suspect the Yankees and Nationals to be the big players for these two stud relievers.
Prediction: Although the Yankees are familiar with Robertson, I think his price tag will be too steep to pay for him just to be a setup man for Chapman and Betances. Thus, I expect the Washington Nationals to trade pitching prospects Erick Fedde and Austin Voth for David Robertson and establish him as their new closer.
I also expect the New York Yankees to flip pitching prospects Dillon Tate and Ian Clarkin for the Mets’ closer Addison Reed and establish him as a setup man.
5. Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Cozart is in the midst of a career year, as he’s on pace to beat his career records in home runs, RBIs, runs, walks, and average. He currently has a .310 average and is walking at double his usual rate (12%) . He was an all-star this season, and plays excellent defense at short. Finding an offensive threat at shortstop is a rarity in baseball, but Cozart has developed into a threat both offensively and defensively. He will undoubtedly provide a playoff contender with value for a postseason run. Teams interested include the Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, and St. Louis Cardinals.
Prediction: With the announced long term injury of Trea Turner, the Nationals seem to have a huge hole at SS to fill, and what better than to bring in a rental player who can perform admirably. I think the Washington Nationals will send 91st ranked outfield prospect Juan Soto and infield prospect Carter Kieboom to the Reds for Cozart.
The Best Of The Rest
I think there will be several other players on the move this deadline, including relievers Justin Wilson (Tigers), Brad Hand (Padres), Pat Neshek (Phillies), AJ Ramos (Marlins, whom I predict will be dealt to the Rockies) and David Phelps (Marlins). Starting pitchers Trevor Cahill (Padres) and Scott Feldman (Reds). First baseman Yonder Alonso (A’s, whom I predict will be dealt to the Yankees). Infielders Jed Lowrie (A’s) and Asdrubal Cabrera (Mets, will be dealt so they can call up top prospect Ahmed Rosario), as well as Catcher Alex Avila (Tigers, whom I predict will be dealt to the Cubs).
Josh Higgs is a baseball contributor for TheOcho.ca. By day he teaches in schools or works at gas stations. By night he’s watching hours of sports and brainstorming his next article.
