NFL Free Agency Moves and Grades: Offensive Edition
With most of the NFL’s notable free agents having signed deals, Steven Horel graded some of the high-profile offensive moves to new teams.
“You definitely go through a stage, most coaches do, where you see a good player and you get enamored, you really like what the player does, but then when you put him into your system, it’s not quite the same player that he was in another system. He has some strengths, but you can’t utilize all those strengths. If you try to utilize all his strengths, you end up weakening a lot of other players who are already in your system.” — Bill Belichick
Bill Belichick is considered one of the greatest football minds of all time. He is innovative, forward-thinking, and a student of the game who appreciates its history while still being one of the hardest working people in the NFL at age 65.
Considering these words of wisdom, it is important to look not only at the player that your team has acquired in free agency. One must be critical of the rest of your roster and the system your team runs in order to see if this new piece will be utilized to its full potential.
With that said, these are my grades for the teams where this year’s top offensive free agents landed.
Alshon Jeffrey: B+
WR Philadelphia Eagles Prediction: 90 REC, 1,140 Yards, 9 TDs
Former Bears’ WR Alshon Jeffrey signed a one-year $9.5 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles. This contract puts his cap hit ($9.5 million) near the likes of Doug Baldwin ($9.65 million), Emmanuel Sanders ($9.5375 million), and Eric Decker ($8.75 million). I would consider him currently the second best of these receivers.
“But Jeffrey only put up 821 yards and two TDs last season!” This is true, but with the Chicago quarterback situation, even an elite receiver would have seen a dip in production. He also missed four games due to a PED suspension. Since his breakout year in 2013, Alshon has averaged 1,045 yards and 5.75 TDs per year. These make his yardage (ranked 45th overall) and TD totals from last year seem not nearly as big of a deal.
The Eagles got a high upside receiver in his prime with a remarkable ability to go up and get 50/50 balls. This type of player does not come around too often. And hey, if he doesn’t work out, the Eagles have only committed to one year with him.
Eddie Lacy: A-
RB Seattle Seahawks Prediction: 175 Att, 775 Rushing Yards, 6 Total TDs
I find this to be an interesting situation. Seattle seemed to have their running back of the future in Thomas Rawls two seasons ago before an injury limited him last season to a stat line of nine games, 445 offensive yards, and three TDs.
In comes Fat Eddie. While many believe his production has been declining since his rookie season in the league in 2013, he has averaged over 1,000 offensive yards and a respectable YPC of 4.4 (even after only playing 5 games last season). The Seahawks signed Lacy to a one-year contract with $2.865 million guaranteed. I believe this value is well below his worth without the eating problems. The Seahawks have found a way around this by giving Lacy weight bonuses. Essentially, Seattle is willing to pay him an extra $55,000 for each time he makes weight over the course of seven months. I could jump on board with that weight loss plan.
While Seattle still needs some help on the offensive line, the team now has a two headed monster in the backfield. This is almost a must have these days, unless you employ the likes of David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, or Ezekiel Elliott. I love the contract but believe Lacy could see a decrease in YPC from previous years due to the offensive line he will be running behind (32nd ranked offensive line by Pro Football Focus).
To see how PFF grades are calculated click here.
Latavius Murray: C-
RB Minnesota Vikings Prediction: 110 Att, 445 Yards, 6 TDs
I originally thought this was a great signing. The Vikings took a potentially terrible situation for the team and ended up creating a strength out of it. After Adrian Peterson left for New Orleans the only running back under contract worth mentioning was Jerrick McKinnon.
Signing Murray to a three-year $15 million deal provided them with a young, early-down power runner similar to LeGarrette Blount that could be complemented by McKinnon’s pass catching ability on passing downs. Then the Vikings struck a deal with Cincinnati to trade up from pick 48 (also sending a 4th round, 128th overall selection) to pick 42 in the second round of the NFL Draft to take RB Dalvin Cook. Cook looked to be a top 10 talent in the draft, but fell after some off field issues.
My biggest concern for Murray is that Dalvin Cook could turn into a Pro Bowl player early in his career, leaving Murray with very few rushing attempts to make his mark. In terms of problems that an NFL team could have, I wouldn’t mind having this one.
DeSean Jackson: C
WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction: 50 REC, 885 Yards, 4 TDs
DeSean Jackson left D.C. this summer to join a Bucs team that surprised many last year. He is still in his prime and led the league at 17.9 yards per catch last year, however Jackson has become very much a boom or bust player with six of his games last season making up 64% of his season yardage total (643 of 1,005 yards).
I believe DeSean Jackson will provide a good second option for QB Jameis Winston but he does many of the same things that Mike Evans does. Both guys are good at catching deep balls, and one of the two will have to sacrifice some looks to the other. A safe bet is that it will be Jackson after Evans put up a stat line of 96 receptions, 1,321 yards and 12 TDs.
The problem I have here is the contract. Three years at $33.5 million with an opt-out clause after two years is more than I would pay a player that will be doing the same thing as the team’s best offensive player. This is a case where I like the player, but as Bill Belichick says, sometimes they aren’t quite the same player in another system.
Two Minute Drill Grades
Terrelle Pryor: A-
WR Washington Redskins Prediction: 80 REC, 1150 Yards, 8 TDs
Although last year’s numbers didn’t scream ‘BIG TIME STUD’, Pryor caused fits for notable veteran DBs Janoris Jenkins, Josh Norman, and Darrelle Revis. This is my under the radar signing of the offseason.
Pierre Garcon: C+
WR San Francisco 49ers Prediction: 85 REC, 1,150 Yards, 4 TDs
Garcon should bring veteran leadership to a team that has been headed in the wrong direction the past couple years. Brian Hoyer will look in the slot often and I believe Garcon will easily surpass 1,000 yards for the second straight season and third time in his career.
Adrian Peterson: D
RB New Orleans Saints Prediction: 100 Att, 450 Yards, 3 TDs
This is the beginning of the end for AP. The New Orleans Saints backfield will be crowded with Peterson, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram all competing for touches. Ingram will see the majority of snaps while Peterson will provide leadership for the two younger backs.
Brandon Marshall: B+
WR New York Giants Prediction: 70 REC, 1,000 Yards, 6 TDs
Brandon Marshall signing with the Giants means only one thing: the Giants will continue to be a passing offense. I do not expect to see Eli handing the ball off too often with his top three WRs being OBJ, Marshall, and Sterling Shepard. Look for a high-powered New Orleans Saints style gun-slinging offense from the Giants this year.
I am looking forward to seeing this year’s free agent class help bring success to their new teams and hope to see some fresh faces in the playoffs come January due to some of these signings.
Steven Horel is a football contributor for TheOcho.ca.
