Ottawa Big Trade Matt-ers.
Alec Avedissian goes deep into the numbers on the Duchene-Turris trade.
On Sunday night, the puck dropped in Long Island for a hockey game between the New York Islanders and the Colorado Avalanche.
Minutes into the game, Matt Duchene was caught sneaking into the dressing room behind injured Avalanche forward Blake Comeau. Contrary to popular belief, Duchene was not checking up on his good pal Blake to see if he was okay.
It was confirmed at the end of the first period. After almost a year of rumours, fireworks and speculation, Matt Duchene had been traded to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team blockbuster also including the Nashville Predators.
The Trade Chips.
The Predators acquired Senators fan favourite Kyle Turris and promptly signed him to a six year, 36 million dollar contract. Turris had apparently hit a standstill in negotiating a contract extension with Ottawa’s management, so rather than risk losing their top centreman for nothing, General Manager Pierre Dorion started looking for an opportunity to make a change. In addition to giving up Kyle Turris, Ottawa also parted ways with Shane Bowers, their 2017 1st round pick, their 2018 1st round draft pick (which is top 10 protected) and a 3rd round pick in 2019. They also shipped off once highly touted goaltender Andrew “The Hamburglar” Hammond to gain relief from his salary.
On top of everything the Avalanche got from the Senators, they also picked up the following from Nashville:
- A second round pick in 2018.
- 21 year old winger Vladislav Kamenev, who has the makings of a top 6 playmaker written all over him.
- 19 year old Samuel Girard, who is a left handed offensive defenseman with some defensive acumen.
Early indications seem to have all three teams pegged as winners, as everyone got what they needed most. The Predators got a bonafide second line centre (sorry not sorry Nick Bonino). The Sens got an upgrade on their top line in the form of a bonafide first line centre in Duchene, who is also two years younger than Turris. They also avoided giving up any of their blue (or brown and white) chip prospects, namely Thomas Chabot. The Avalanche may have missed out on an established roster player or a top notch blue chip prospect, but they acquired something they have long been lacking — the opportunity to really fill their prospect cupboard full of legit NHL prospects and stockpile multiple high picks. In their rebuild attempts over the past 10 years or so, early Avs picks have either been in the NHL contributing by 18/19 years old (Duchene, O’Reilly, MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen) or complete busts by the time they hit 21 (Siemens, Elliott, Hishon, Bleakley and Picard). This has really hurt the flow of their pipeline of youth.
Is Matt Duchene Really an Upgrade Over Kyle Turris?
This is surely the question on the mind of every Ottawa Senators fan. A fair question indeed considering the Sens also gave up some decent quality youth alongside Turris for the often maligned Duchene. Both have posted relatively similar numbers over the past few years. Duchene is coming off a horrendous season in Denver, which certainly seemed to be a red flag, but is it really as bad as it looks? Here are Matty and Kyle’s numbers over the past five seasons, including the start of this year as well.
At first glance, critics seem to be right. Duchene and Turris both have very similar points and point per game averages over the past five seasons. However, If you look a little bit deeper at their production efficiency at 5-on-5 — where most hockey is played — their points-per 60 minutes played tells a completely different story. On average, first line forwards are expected to produce around two P/60 at even strength. Aside from last year, Duchene has been hovering in the 2.17–2.6 P/60 range. This year, he is off to an electric average of 2.8, although that is likely an unsustainable pace. Turris seems to hover at a much less impressive 1.5–2 p/60 rate, also discounting his worst season. It is also very important to note than in 2013–14 ,his 2.05 p/60 season he was used as Ottawa’s second line centre behind Jubilee Fine Jewelers favourite son Jason Spezza, and was thus drawing a secondary defensive matchup.
The first thing Sens will probably notice about Matt Duchene on the ice is that he is an incredibly fast skater and he has an uncanny ability to protect the puck especially down low. The way he spins off of defenders and drives to the net to set up teammates is truly a sight to behold, almost Crosby-esque as the two trained together during the offseason many years ago. Cycling the puck back up to Ottawa’s big guns like Karlsson, Hoffman and Stone is going to make Ottawa an even bigger offensive threat than they already are, and promises to have every Sens Army supporter at the edge of their seat whenever Duchene has the puck on his stick. Turris does have a reputation of being a more solid defensive player, but Duchene is coming into the nation’s capital incredibly excited and motivated, and will surely do everything that is asked of him by coach Guy Boucher.
Turris’ Community Footprint.
The city of Ottawa is unfortunately losing a big community pillar in Kyle Turris. However what people are unaware of is that so is Denver.
Duchene is going to be a great fit for the National Capital region. As someone who has watched him from his draft day in 2009 and followed him closely throughout his career, I can confidently say that Matt Duchene (when not being hounded by trade rumours and about his idol Joe Sakic “betraying him”) is a very down to earth, friendly, positive and high quality human being. He has a huge heart and wears it on his sleeve every time he goes out on the ice.
Another worry with Duchene is that with only two years left on his contract, he could walk away from the organisation after his deal has expired. Duchene, since being traded, has been swarmed by media everywhere and confessed that he asked for a trade to somewhere he could play playoff hockey. He was sick of losing, and could see the Avalanche were starting yet another rebuild, so he went to childhood hero Joe Sakic in what he describes as the hardest thing he’s had to do in his life, and asked him for a trade last season.
In my opinion as long as the Senators stay competitive, Sens fans and media treat him with the respect he deserves, and Pierre Dorion offers him a fair contract extension, Duchene will have no problem resigning in Ottawa.
Alec is a hockey contributor for TheOcho.ca.
