The Senators Offence Offends Me.
The thing sports media is built on: wild speculation based on real needs.
What are the Ottawa Senators going to do to improve scoring? It’s a question that hasn’t gotten any close to an answer in the past two months.
When you look at the current trade options or various free agent power play specialists, things do not look very good. The Sens only have $4.8 million left in cap space. Ceci, Turris and Stone all need new deals for next season, and Karlsson needs a new deal for the 2019–2020 season. All these players will require significant raises, which doesn’t leave GM Pierre Dorion with many options.
The front office has done nothing to make the Ottawa Senators better offensively during the offseason. While do have their defensive system to fall back on, Dorion knows that if he wants to re-sign Karlsson and get a bit of a hometown discount, he is going to have to put a Stanley Cup back within reach. In a perfect world, everyone just steps up and increases scoring by committee, but I think we know that’s pretty unlikely.
Dorion needs to hang back, see what direction the other teams in the league are going, and then make the best deal possible for an offensive player partway through the regular season, when Ottawa’s $4.8 million increases in value due to the prorated cap hits of deadline acquisitions. Ideally, this will be someone who can light the lamp on the power play.
Ottawa should target either a team that throws in the towel early and wants to improve their lottery chances or go after veterans with expiring contracts on teams looking to get younger. There are several potential trade options that may come from teams at the rebuild crossroads like Detroit, Philadelphia, the Islanders, Rangers, Los Angeles, and Winnipeg. A disappointing start to the season for any of these teams could trigger a fire sale.
Ideal Scenario
The modus operandi for Dorion should be to get someone on the cheap who is low risk and will add scoring depth. For example, just last year Dorion added Burrows and Stalberg. Who will it be this year?
Matt Moulson (14 G, 32 P, 11 PPG): If things go south in Buffalo again this season, new management may want to move on from some of the mistakes of the previous regime. Moulson hasn’t been finding the back of the net like he did on the Island, but 11 goals with the man advantage shows he could excel under the right circumstances. His $5 million cap hit for the next two years (which is only $3 million in actual salary next season) makes him an attractive pick up if the Sens continue struggling to generate goals.
There is also a chance Dorion could convince a few veterans on expiring contracts to hitch a ride deep into the playoffs for a chance to compete for a Cup.
The Sedins (7 PPG, 29 PPP, 94 P): Picks and prospects would likely suffice, as their contracts expires this year. They get to play with a few fellow countryman and possibly contend for a Cup. They could lead the second power play unit and the second line. Both of them for half a season would be a $7 million cap hit, but maybe Dorion could get Vancouver to take a bad contract the other way if the pot is sweet enough.
Rick Nash (23 G, 38 P, 6 PPG): An aging star at the end of his career earning $7.8 million in the last year of his contract. It would be nice to have his services as a sniper.
James Neal (23 G , 41 P, 5 PPG): Vegas might be looking to hoard more draft picks by the trade deadline, and Neal only has a $5 million cap hit which expires at the end of the season.
Win Now
Maybe Dorion loses his mind trying to impress Karlsson and decides he has to win now. He could bid on some of the biggest names available, like a John Tavares, or he might want to gamble and give up more for a player with some term left on their contract. The below listed players would likely only land in Ottawa if (A) the Sens look like a legitimate contender and (B) their respective teams are tanking hard.
Tomas Tatar (25 G, 46P, 5 PPG): Detroit is up against the cap and looks like a team ready to rebuild. Tatar has a annual cap hit of $5.3 million over the next four seasons. That said, the Sens would probably need to give up too much for him since he is still fairly young and may still fit into Detroit’s rebuild plans.
Wayne Simmonds (31G, 54P, 16 PPG): This would be an expensive pick up, but he would be worth it. Only $3.975 million on the cap per year for two more seasons, but his actual remaining salary is $9.75 million.
Claude Giroux (14 G, 58P, 31 PPP): This would have to be a trade that includes one of Ottawa’s top centres unless Philly would settle for Colin White. Giroux is signed for a cap hit of $8.275 million per year through the 2021–22 season.
Jeff Carter (32G, 66P, 10 PPG): This only makes sense if the Phaneuf contract goes the other way. Cap hit of $5.273 million per year until 2022, when he will be 36.
Ultimately, Senators management may prioritize finding someone to replace Marc Methot if they can not find a suitable a partner for Karlsson in house. This list will continue to evolve as the season progresses.
Keep visiting TheOcho.ca all season to stay on top of the latest trade rumours and analysis.
Oliver Johnston is a hockey and baseball contributor for TheOcho.ca.
