Bitcoin — $55,000 or $1,650?

6th April market analysis of Bitcoin and it’s possible next move

Good Morning Cryptoverse! Welcome to the 3rd green Monday after the March crash. Feels good, isn’t it? When the traditional markets are suffering, Bitcoin seems to hold it’s own even though we are seeing some correlation between Bitcoin’s price and Dow Jones Index(DJI) data lately.

First on the block some good news. Below is an updated version of the Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow chart which shows our beloved BTC is on the verge of another breakout. Bitcoin S2F chart was first coined by Nick Szabo and it was quite well received by the bitcoin community.

According to this model, we might see Bitcoin valued at $55,000 after halving. Let us keep a close watch as to how the story unfolds in the next few months.

You can learn more about the Stock-To-Flow model and how it can be compared with Gold and Silver from the links below.

• Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
• Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity
• Falsifying Stock-to-Flow As a Model of Bitcoin Value

Below is another pretty dope analysis supporting the fact that bitcoin is about to break out in a positive direction. The chart goes back to 2011 and shows bitcoin’s parabolic rise in value coupled with the fact of how it has always respected MA100. If you look closely, it is apparent that whenever we have broken above the red dotted line we have seen a huge increase in Bitcoin’s price. According to the graph, if history repeats itself, we will see a sideways movement for a period of time followed by a break out in a positive direction any day now.

A bull flag is formed when the support and resistance price points are parallel to each other. This indicates that the shorts are caught off guard and a more powerful break out can be expected in the upward direction. But, if it fails to go past halfway point of the flag pole, it is a failure and we should continue to the downside. Currently, the flag pole point is $7191. At the time of writing, $BTC is trying hard to break past it. Let me know how it goes in the comment section.

Further reading on Bull flag can be done here:

• https://speedtrader.com/how-to-trade-flag-patterns/

Now, let’s analyze the bearish aspect of Bitcoin trading for today from Twitterverse. As you can understand, Bitcoin is about to complete the double hump pattern on daily Stoch-RSI and in the past one year whenever this pattern is painted we have seen a dump. So my question is the same as the author of this tweet, will this time be different?

Next, be ready for a dose of sarcasm thrown right at us from the Reddit community. Be sure to check out the comment section for fun!

• Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/fvju4o/thought_this_belongs_here_from_1929/

The following piece is for everyone who is associated with crypto. We all know how government and legal compliance are key to Crypto and Bitcoin’s long-term success. The following Reddit link contains all the lawsuits that have been filed against different crypto companies in the past few months, be sure to check them out.

• https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/fvpkeb/classaction_lawsuits_filed_against_binance_tron/

In our youtube section, we are presenting you with Pomp’s latest video where Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and the CEO of Social Capital speaks how Bitcoin can prove to be a great vehicle to beat the next economic downturn.

Some more great reads from different Reddit communities:

• Why stable coins proved to be dangerous to crypto
• How the bet that was made between Roger Ver and Charlie Lee 18th months ago regarding Lightning node merchants is coming along

The below CryptoCompare post describes the “Tail Risk Event” and how it could come into effect in the current Bitcoin price scenario.

According to the chart, Bitcoin’s price may plunge to $1650 for a short period of time before rising above $20,000.

You can read more about “Tail Risk Event” from the link below:

• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tailrisk.asp

• https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/btc/post/p_1529823

Another intuitive chart from the CryptoCompare forum which compares the crash of the 2020 S&P Index with that of 2008 and seeing it with the naked eye they seem to be quite co-related. If Bitcoin continues the correlation with the traditional stock market we might be in for some more downtrend!

• https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/btc/post/p_1529817

I think the above analysis is sufficient for a Monday morning but in case if you are still craving more market analysis, below is the list of hand-picked TradingView articles from the past 24 hours.

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BXpYZil7-BITCOIN-price-trades-in-Triangle-Between-Support-and-Resistance/
• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MCtAtr44-Bitcoin-Boring-Market-with-No-Trade-Opportunities/
• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/cHrARoUv-Wyckoff-s-Distribution-Schematic-1-Events-Phases/

Do let me know what is your take and analysis in the comment section! You can learn more about us here.

This will be wrap from my side for today. If you want to receive a market overview delivered directly to your inbox every day, please consider subscribing to the OpinionBits newsletter.