Bitcoin’s rising wedge is breaking upward or downward?
50D MA resistance, Descending channel, Fractals — 9th April Bitcoin market analysis
We start our Thursday with Bitcoin still trading inside the rising wedge, currently testing the 50 Day MA as resistance. At the same time, it is facing one of it’s most strong multi-year descending channels as resistance. We will simultaneously analyze whether Bitcoin still has the fuel left to touch $9000 in this run or not and some bullish prediction on how Bitcoin’s price can increase by 25% in the next 34 days until halving.
According to many economists, a recession is on the horizon and we are in a bear market. The stock market is yet to see another violent drop and it may drag BTC along with it. Although the crypto space is yet to experience a recession, as Bitcoin and crypto as a whole are speculative assets, many believe Bitcoin too will feel the heat. Having said that, Bitcoin is still trading above $7200 and let’s move on to see how it can be expected to perform in the next few days, according to some of the most celebrated posts on the internet.
In the chart below, you can see that it is facing resistance, in the form of the 50-day moving average. Simultaneously, it is also flirting with the bottom of the falling Gaussian channel. According to the author of the post, if we close a daily candle above the 50 -day MA, there is a decent chance that Bitcoin could run-up to the 61.8% retrace, which converges with the 200-day moving average around $7970. In order to close a daily candle above the 50-day MA, Bitcoin will have to stay above $7470 for an entire 24-hour period. Hence, $7470 will be the level to watch out for.
There is a high chance that we would break down below the rising wedge sooner or later as we are trading inside the rising wedge for the past few weeks and it is a highly bearish setup. Now if that happens we should know how far down we might go and the post below gives us that estimate. We can see that the level is located around $5800- $6100, if it holds we might see $8000 in the next leg up, else we would find ourselves at around $4900.
Next up we have some positive analysis involving fractals from TradingView. The author assumes this phase as an accumulation zone and compares it with the $3000-$4000 accumulation zone from JAN-MAR, 2019. The two indeed have some similarities between them where the horizontal resistance exactly matches the 50-day MA mentioned above. If the fractal setup repeats itself we can see some serious upward movement.
The above chart is an example of how crucial the time is for Bitcoin. This chart shows a very strong descending channel resistance that Bitcoin has faced since the 2017 bull run. It has been tested 6 times before and hasn’t been able to overcome 5 times out of those attempts. The lone occasion when it was able to penetrate it we saw the price move to $13,500. It is a 1D chart so a full candle close above $7500 will see us breaking the resistance.
A temporary distraction from trading for good! Please read the passage tweeted by Preston Pysh, a famous podcaster that shows how the government can put society into debt crisis by printing more money. A must-read passage by Ray Dalio for BTC enthusiasts.
Coming back to analysis again, do you believe this rising wedge is going to break in the upward direction? If yes, we have got some company for you. The chart below shows a number of rising wedges that have been broken in the upside direction. Take up the challenge and see it for yourself!
Here’s presenting you with another bullish prediction based on historical data. Bitcoin’s price had increased by 25% in the 34 day period going into the 2016 halving event. Should history repeat itself then we will see BTC at $9150. Dope isn’t it!
Now some Reddit wisdom:
Let’s end our day with a dollop of humor, we believe all of us can relate to it to some extent!
Ciao! Till tomorrow. Nägemist.
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