Americans are Less Pro-War than Polls Suggest

When Donald Trump dropped 59 cruise missiles on Syria’s Shayrat Airbase in April 2017, you might have expected the act to enrage the vast majority of Americans — liberals, for its potential to spark another costly regime change war like that of Iraq, and Trump supporters, for violating Trump’s campaign promise to pull out of interventions abroad and focus on “America first.”

But instead, Trump’s strike won over Americans by a 58–36 margin, with 45% support from Democrats and 77% support from Republicans.

Are Americans pro-war?

There’s evidence on both sides. On one hand, a strong majority of Americans — 61% — support the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, and over half of Americans think that the Iraq War was a mistake.

Furthermore, according to an analysis by YouGov Blue and Data for Progress, Americans are strongly unified in their opposition to the U.S.-backed intervention in Yemen, which has led to a famine that the U.N. has called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

But any honest, objective analysis of public opinion on foreign policy must acknowledge that Americans, by and large, poll somewhat hawkishly.

• More than two thirds of Americans say they support drone strikes against ISIS.
• American voters support keeping troops in Syria by a 59–41 margin.
• Three fifths of Americans are in favor of the use of ground troops to combat ISIS — including 53% of Democrats.

It appears from these data that America’s stance on foreign policy is mixed at best, and hawkish at worst.

Perhaps Americans’ clear-cut progressivism on economic issues — with strong support for Medicare for All, a living wage, and the Green New Deal — does not transcend to foreign policy issues.

But wait—there’s a catch. When money is factored in, everything changes.

Money Matters

If Americans are truly pro-war, they are also — by necessity — pro-war spending.

In other words, to qualify as pro-war, they must be in favor of sacrificing some other aspect of the budgetary process — lower taxes, spending on social programs, reduced debt, etc. — in order to attain sufficient funds for new wars and interventions.

The problem is, when surveys ask respondents about foreign policy, they ask whether they support the war at face value. They rarely ask respondents whether they support the war along with its negative effects on the rest of the budget, be it increasing the debt, raising taxes, or cutting spending on social programs like Medicare and Social Security.

This is a major issue, because in addition to supporting certain military interventions, Americans also support an array of other likeable policies — reducing the debt, expanding social programs, and lowering their tax burden — that cannot coexist with the increased military spending required to finance these interventions.

97% of Americans don’t want their taxes to increase.

Nine in ten Americans oppose cuts to Medicare and Social Security.

77% of Americans say they worry about the budget deficit a “great deal” or a “fair amount.”

So, the question isn’t whether Americans support war. The question is, if they were designing the U.S. government’s budget, whether they would raise taxes, increase the debt, or cut funding for social programs in order to pay for those wars.

What the Polls Have to Say

After analyzing polling data, it’s clear that Americans poll less supportively of war when asked about the budgetary consequences of war on other things they support, such as social spending, low taxes, and balanced budgets.

In 2017, a plurality of Americans said they favored Trump’s proposed $54 billion increase in military spending. However, when they were asked about where the funding would come from, everything changed. Only 34% said they would support “cutting funding for domestic programs” in order to finance the $54 billion increase; 14% were somewhat opposed, and 47% opposed strongly.

In addition to preferring social spending over military spending, Americans also prioritize debt over defense. A 2010 Economist/YouGov poll, for instance, found that a plurality of Americans — 44% — would favor a gargantuan $100 billion cut in military spending in order to “reduce the federal deficit.” Only 27% opposed.

Taxes also take priority over war. When asked if they would rather increase taxes or cut military spending, only 39% of Americans said they would increase taxes. More than half said they would prefer to cut military spending.

Overall, polling indicates that while Americans may support certain wars and interventions on their own, they are significantly less likely to be in favor of these wars when costs are factored in.

If Americans would prefer to keep military spending level — or even cut it — in order to reduce taxes, balance the budget, or expand social programs, then they are not truly pro-war.

This, of course, does not mean that Americans are principled doves when it comes to foreign policy. But it does signify that while Americans may say they support drone strikes against ISIS or boots on the ground in Syria, they wouldn’t support the enlarged military budget necessary to pay for these things.