NFL Divisional Round Picks: Don’t Be Afraid to Take the Underdog (Except Houston)
With the exception of the Houston Texans, all three visitors have a chance to advance this weekend.
Let’s get right into it.
Seattle (+5) over ATLANTA
I am not a Falcons believer. Sorry. Why? Because Matt Ryan and “playoff Matt Ryan” are two seemingly irreconcilable quarterbacks, with the former putting on a season-long MVP-worthy performance and the latter struggling to be mediocre.
Matt Ryan’s playoff record is a dismal 1–4. Russell Wilson’s playoff record is 8–3. Simply put, while Matt Ryan consistently poor in the playoffs, but Russell Wilson is consistently clutch in the playoffs. Furthermore, it’s important to recognize, that as usual, Seattle owns the better defense, in every measurable way.
Of course, Atlanta’s offense has been nearly unstoppable. A playmaking core of Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Austin Hooper, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is why the passing offense is just so damn good. Matt Ryan’s MVP-caliber season has been based upon capitalizing upon the talents of these emerging stars. Seattle, however, is still the better defensive and more experienced team.
Atlanta (-5) seems a bit high. The Falcons last win over a 2017 playoff team came on October 30th, when the defeated the Packers 33–32. Since then, the 11–5 Falcons have beat up upon the little brothers of the league: Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Arizona, Los Angeles, Carolina, and New Orleans. In the middle of these victories came a loss to Kansas City, the only playoff team they’ve faced since October 30th. Expecting the Falcons to somehow turn it on against the Seahawks — after a string of poor opponents — is a tough task.
Although the Seahawks last regular season win over a playoff team came on November 13th over the Patriots, they have the advantage of already being in a playoff mindset, considering they dismantled Detroit last week.
This game is definitely a toss up. In such a situation, I think you have to go with experience and preparation. That favors the Seahawks, both straight up and against the spread.
NEW ENGLAND (-16) over Houston
Do we really need to go over this? Last time these times played, New England demolished Houston — when third-stringer Jacoby Brissett played quarterback for the Patriots.
Let me put it this way. The Patriots beat Houston 27–0, even thought they started a third-string quarterback who only amassed 103 yards on 11/19 passing. LeGarrette Blount was the key to victory, running for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24 carries.
There is quite literally no reason to think anything about this matchup will change — with the exception of Tom Brady. This game will likely be worse than 27–0. Quit worrying about this game, take the Patriots, and thinking about making a prop bet on how early we’ll see Jimmy Garoppolo.
Pittsburgh (+1) over KANSAS CITY
I think Kansas City is quite a capable team. I also think they got an incredibly tough draw in Pittsburgh. Last time they played, the Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43–14.
Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 touchdowns. Le’veon Bell ran for 144 yards on 18 carries. Antonio Brown had a mediocre game — by his standards — and the Steelers still managed to put up 43 points. Defensively, they Steelers forced Alex Smith to throw 50 passes. He only completed 30, leading to an eventual QBR of 30.9.
Looking at this matchup, it seems supremely unintelligent to pick against the big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. When one of the three falls short — as Antonio Brown did in their last matchup with Kansas City — the other two tend to shoulder the load.
The Steelers have won four of the last five over the Chiefs. The only exception came when Big Ben didn’t play.
Considering the impending ice storm, it’s fair to assume both teams will be forced to run the ball. Not only do the Steelers have the quarterback advantage, but they most certainly have the running back advantage in Le’veon Bell. If both teams are forced to run the ball more than 25 times, look for the Steelers to pull it out.
Green Bay (+4) over DALLAS
Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football right now. Arguing anything else is simply ludicrous. He’s experienced. He’s a Super Bowl winner. The same can be said for Clay Matthews, the quarterback of the defense.
While Green Bay’s leaders are experienced winners, the Cowboys are led by by a rookie quarterback and rookie running back.
Nobody is denying that both Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot have been dominant. Prescott’s rookie status, however, in principle, makes the Cowboys favorited status a bit dubious.
Rookie quarterbacks, since 2010, are 0–4 in games facing a non-rookie quarterback. On the whole, rookie quarterbacks have gone 2–6 overall, but both wins. The two wins were games in which rookies faced one another, meaning that a rookie had to win (Andy Dalton vs. T.J. Yates in 2011, Russell Wilson vs. Robert Griffin III in 2012).
Prescott’s worst games this season have come against veteran teams, like the Packers. In two games against the Giants, Prescott combined to pass for 42/82 passing, 392 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He also fumbled once. This combined performance culminates in a dismal 58.587 quarterback rating — worse than every 2016 starting quarterback. Dak’s rating versus the Giants is over 10 points worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick’s season rating.
Dak Prescott is facing Aaron Rodgers — not quite a rookie.
The Cowboys defense is strong, no doubt about it. They will likely make the Packers one-dimensional, limiting their ability to run the ball with Ty Montgomery. It doesn’t matter. Forcing the Packers to put up points in the air is not a problem — see below.
The Cowboys beat the Packers earlier this season.
It doesn’t matter.
The Packers haven’t lost since November 20th against the Redskins. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for over 200 yards in every game except the season opener. Rodgers has thrown for over 300 yards in seven games this season — six of which have come since November 13th — most recently against the Lions in the first round. Still doubting Rodgers? See below:
Rodgers will roll. The Packers defense will step up. Dak will make a few too many mistakes, while Rodgers will dominates. Look for the Packers to both beat the spread advance to the NFC Championship.
The author went 3–1 last week. He mistakenly took the Raiders.
