Green Bay Looks To Defy Odds, Keep Winning When It Counts.
17 — 14.
No, that’s not the final predicted score of the imminent Green Bay at Atlanta NFC Championship playoff game on Sunday.
Far from it.
NFL prognosticators are nearly split when picking a straight-up winner to this point across the entirety of ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS and Pro Football Weekly.
Las Vegas oddsmakers at the Westgate have set the over/under for this bout at 60.5, the highest total for an NFL playoff game.
Ever.
So, how are these Packers going to hold up while again facing a major road test? The Falcons are 5-point home favorites. Despite owning the all-time advantage in the series (see the number 17 above) the NFC Championship in Atlanta represents the toughest challenge Green Bay has faced in recent memory.
To understand how special Green Bay’s current run has been, though, we have to look at the landscape of their resurgence against expected results. There’s no better indicator of that success than looking at the simple most telling fact: wins. Since their game in Washington when the team had an 8 percent chance at the playoffs, they’re 8 — 0 straight-up in what has become essentially a two-month long playoff.
While the determination and grit of this team have been well documented, its also tested the team’s physical resolve. And it will test the Packers straight through to the Super Bowl should they keep the streak going against the Falcons. Interestingly, the Packers, Steelers and Patriots are a combined 29–1 since week 12. That’s a lot of winning in a sport as unpredictable as the NFL.
Wide receivers Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and rookie Geronimo Allison have spent most of the current week watching practice as spectators, nursing a variety of ailments which head coach Mike McCarthy has said would’ve already disqualified them from availability had this Sunday’s game been of the regular season variety.
Injuries concerns aside, let’s pause for a moment and look at the collective from a fan perspective.
After that sub-.500 start, many had clamored for McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson’s respective heads as the streak of seven consecutive playoff berths hung precariously in the balance.
Social media exploded, a veritable green and gold river of sadness with doomsday implications. Rodgers’ mechanics were off. Perhaps something must be wrong on the homefront? What was the primary issue in those lopsided defeats to the these same Falcons, the Colts, the Titans and the afore-mentioned Redskins?
Local and national news outlets debated the suddenly murky, seemingly uncertain future of nearly everyone associated with the organization- which to date has been one of the most consistent franchises in all of professional sports over the last 25 years.
All seemed lost on the frozen tundra.
Downplayed amidst the noise? All-planet quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ confident phrase about “running the table” following that loss in the nation’s capital. Understandably, it was laughed off by most of the media and fans as sheer lunacy. A typical cliché’ from a suddenly-fading star in a sport filled with predictability and endless what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitudes.
Fast forward to NFL Conference Championship Weekend.
Operating as prototypical road ‘dawgs’ for the current playoff slate and for most of the last two months didn’t actually change things as Green Bay marched into Dallas last weekend, on the heels of a resounding Wild Card win over the Giants- for their NFC Divisional round match up.
Despite facing the number one seed (and the NFL’s best offensive line, rushing attack, and most efficient quarterback to that point in either conference by a Texas country mile) they didn’t fold, either.
Conversely, Green Bay set the tone almost from the opening kickoff. They built an early lead and looked the part of spoilers for a majority of the first half.
After allowing the Cowboys to rally and tie the game at 28 late in the fourth quarter they didn’t break, either. They didn’t squander maybe the franchise’s best opportunity for a signature win since their Super Bowl XLV title-clinching win in that very same stadium six years prior.
Rodgers, after absorbing a blindside sack that would’ve seen normal humans fumble the ball, rolled out of the pocket on a crucial third down and threw a frozen rope to tight end Jared Cook in a catch for the ages at the most pivotal point of his career. We challenge you to find a better one:
Then, kicker Mason Crosby nailed not one, but two 50-plus yard attempts to seal the win and upset the top seed for just the fourth time in the last 20 years in the NFC. The last to do so — Green Bay. In doing so Crosby became the first kicker to nail two 50-yarders in the last two-minutes of a playoff game in NFL history.
Championship Calibre Expectations
So, what stands out as major factors as the Packers prepare to face the Falcons in what many have deemed the game of the year in the NFC?
First of all, momentum counts.
Both teams have caught fire of late in winning their respective three playoff games by an average margin of double digits. Green Bay, as noted earlier, is unbeaten in their last eight games. And they’ve looked dominant for most of that run, with Rodgers throwing for 24 touchdowns against just one interception. He’s re-inserted himself into the MVP conversation, although this weekend’s counterpart signal caller Ryan has been the NFL’s most consistent and most explosive passer to this point leading the league in yards, touchdown throws and highest efficiency rating.
Green Bay certainly has their work cut out if they expect to build on their three-game advantage in the all-time series and also ensure that no team closing out a stadium wins their final conference championship game; teams are 0 — 2 collectively when hosting such games in NFL history to date.
The Green Bay defense, a unit that Footballoutsiders.com ranked as the DVOA 22nd best group against the pass and 14th best against the run this season has found a playmaker in defensive back Micah Hyde. He’s snagged 4 interceptions and been a force in the secondary since that 4 — 6 start.
Defenders as a whole are anticipating better, in the spirit of gamer Hyde, and defensing passes at a clip they haven’t’ experienced since that destiny-inspired ’10 Super Bowl XLV championship run.
Special teams will also be a huge factor in this game. Seattle exploited Atlanta last week in the NFC Divisional round game, netting 250-plus yards on 7 combined kickoff and punt returns by special teams ace (and possible Hall Of Fame candidate) Devin Hester. The Falcons will surely miss corner back Desmond Trufant who’s been out of commission since late November when trying to defend the aerial attack of Green Bay. Pass rusher Adrian Claiborne will also be absent for Atlanta.
Ultimately, the two biggest keys to the game for the Packers lie in 1.) Rodgers’ ability to avoid the blitz on early downs and make plays in space. And 2.) the ability of the Green Bay running game to act at the very least as a capable decoy on the downs he doesn’t sling it across his body for huge gains, laws of physics aside.
Fittingly, Rodgers has been able to do so at will to this point, completing an NFL-high 5 — 8 passes of more than 30 yards for a pair of touchdowns with less than two minutes remaining on the clock in any game. To contrast, the rest of the league is a mere 4 — 49 in those same situations with five interceptions.
Based on recent statistics and the destiny-infused performance currently being turned in by Rodgers Green Bay has a legitimate shot to put the dirty birds to rest for the season, add to that 17-win series total and continue their improbable run to the Super Bowl.
