Pushing Through the Polls

2022 midterm results look bleak for senate democrats.

Anish Nayak, Georgia High School Democrats

According to the latest polls, Democrats are on chart to lose crucial majorities in the Senate in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections. The polls reveal tight races, narrow margins, and a slight red edge in key states.

Even at the present moment, Democrats’ unified control over the government is held by a thin strand. Until 2023, the Senate will remain divided in a 50–50 split with Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. A single loss would tip the scales in the other direction and give the GOP the majority.

There are a few liberal Senators vulnerable to a loss including Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nevada. An internal poll conducted under her upcoming opponent, Adam Laxalt, reveals him to be 2% ahead in popularity (39% to 37%). The poll, which was organized and distributed by WPA Intelligence in September, used a sample size of 504 potential voters, had a 4.4% margin of error, and received a B/C rating from the esteemed poll tracker FiveThirtyEight. Another VCreek/AMG poll which was issued in August to 567 voters found Laxalt to be 10% ahead. These results highlight how the political environment is becoming more favorable to Republicans.

Other incumbent senators at risk of a flip include Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-New Hampshire, and Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Georgia. A poll distributed by Saint Anselm College to nearly 1,900 registered voters in late August predicted Hasan to lose by a margin of 48% to 49%. The poll received an A/B rating, and only had a 2.3% margin of error. In Georgia, Sen. Warnock, who just won a special election against former Senator Kelly Loefler, will be up against Herschel Walker, a retired National Football League player. Walker has been endorsed by the former president, Donald Trump, and has shown to be only 2 points behind Warnock according to a A-rated poll conducted by the Public Policy Polling in early August.

However, despite recent polling in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia that show Republicans possibly flipping seats, not all hope is lost for Senate Democrats. In Wisconsin, a key battleground state, Sen. Ron John has not confirmed his candidacy. If the senator does not end up running, then Democrats will target the open seat. Regardless, the Republican incumbent faces a tough and tight race. According to a poll conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs in early September, he is predicted to be tied with the state’s lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes.

The 2022 midterms will decide who controls the government. Democrats cannot afford to lose a single seat, while Republicans must only flip one.