THE 2022 MIDTERMS: How Past Precedent Indicates Trouble For Democrats

The 2022 midterm elections are just shy of a year away. Historically, midterm elections are a chance for the party lacking control of the White House to take control and/or expand its margins in both chambers of Congress.

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2022 Midterms | Congress

In the current Congress, the House of Representatives consists of 224 Democrats and 214 Republicans. The Democrats’ margin in the House of Representatives is much smaller now than it was at the end of the previous Congress’ term one year ago. Republicans are looking to gain a majority in the House and the House Speakership to prevent Democratic laws/policies from advancing to the Senate. The Senate is split 50–50. Technically, Democrats control the Chamber. Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaker for any votes split 50–50. However, any Senator can launch a filibuster, which can delay a bill indefinitely. The only way to break a filibuster (for most pieces of legislation) is for three-fifths of Senators to vote to override (Desjardins 1). In the current Congress, Republicans are using the filibuster to block Democrats from passing the bulk of their agenda, which most Democratic politicians campaigned on during the 2020 election cycle. Many Democrats argue that the only way to move forward with the Democratic agenda is to have 60 Democratic votes in the Senate. At the same time, Republicans want to expand their majority to prevent any Democratic laws/policies from going into effect.

2022 Midterms | What’s At Stake

The 2022 midterm elections are crucial for Democrats. If Republicans gain control of the House or the Senate, they can effectively prevent the Democrats from enacting their agenda for the remainder of President Biden’s first term in office. The Biden Administration would mostly have to rely on executive orders to get any major policies changed or implemented. Executive orders are never final and often become contested and tied up in federal courts. On the other hand, as long as Democrats keep their majority in the House and expand their majority in the Senate, it is much more likely that they can pass the agenda for which they continually campaign and rally support. It is possible. There are 34 seats in the United States Senate up for reelection in 2022. 14 of those seats are held by Democrats, and 20 of those seats are held by Republicans. However, past precedent indicates a steep uphill climb for Democrats.

2022 Midterms | Past Precedent

The 2022 Midterm elections will serve as an evaluation of President Biden’s first two years in office. Democrats have a chance to expand their majority, and Republicans have a chance to obtain the majority. It all depends on turnout. Will Republican candidates use Trumpism to stir up support and enthusiasm? Alternatively, have Republican voters (for the most part) moved on from Trumpism, and are they now looking for new ideas and fresh rhetoric? Will Democratic voters be able to persuade progressives (likely disappointed by President Biden’s performance thus far) to turn out in high numbers to prevent a Red wave? Will moderate Democratic voters turnout for progressive candidates and vice versa?

History indicates a better outcome for Republicans. In 2014, two years after former President Barack Obama was re-elected, Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress after the midterm elections. Republicans regained control of the Senate by taking nine Senate seats from Democrats (Senate Election Results 1). The House Republican caucus gained 13 seats, which increased its majority to the largest in the House of Representatives since 1928 (Senate Election Results 1). Similarly, after the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans gained 63 seats and took control of the House of Representatives (House Map 1). Democrats remained in control of the Senate but still lost several seats (House Map 1).

2022 Midterms | Hope

There is still hope for Democrats. Republicans continue to anger and energize Democrats with polarizing rhetoric and discriminatory policies. Most Democrats are upset by Republican efforts (through State legislatures) to limit access to voting by passing laws that complicate and restrict the voting process. Republicans have also ramped up the rhetoric against abortion and immigration, angering Democrats. Suddenly, now that a Democrat is President again, Republicans seem to care about inhumane conditions in border facilities. In contrast, During Former President Trump’s term, Republicans were silently condoning the brutally cruel policies in effect at the Southern border used to deter undocumented migrants.

Additionally, President Biden’s approval numbers have remained relatively steady thus far. In the first six months of his Presidency, Biden maintained an approval rating between 50 and 60 percent (Brenan 1). Since then, his approval rating has fallen slightly, but it is difficult to predict what will happen in 2022. Ultimately, only time will tell. In the world of politics, a lot can happen in a year leading up to an election. Democrats can only hope that their enthusiasm from the 2020 election cycle continues into 2022. If not, it could spell trouble for Democrats and open the perfect opportunity for Republicans.