Why Aren’t the Phillies Losing This Year?

The Phillies were supposed to be awful this year. Continuing their “rebuilding phase”, the team entered spring training with little major league-ready talent. Phillies greats like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee had all departed via trades (or in Lee’s case, retiring at age 37), leaving very little established big league talent left. As a matter of fact, Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz are the last two remaining players from the 2008 world series squad, both of whom at this point in their careers are shells of their former selves. With a combination of two over-the-hill veterans; a slew of talented, but very raw rookies (who probably could use more development in the minor leagues); and a collection of journeymen who would be bench players/career minor leaguers on most other teams, the Phillies looked like one of the worst teams in baseball entering opening day of the 2016 MLB season. Yet as of May 17, the Phillies are at 22–17, the 5th best record in the National League. How did this happen? More importantly, is this winning trend sustainable throughout the summer?

First of all, it is important to note that the Phillies’ wins have not been pretty. Indeed, the offense has been anemic, to say the least. If you look into baseball analytics websites such as baseball-reference.com, advanced statistics will tell you how bad the positional players have been. Using the statistic WAR (Wins Above Replacement, a way of determining how many more wins per season a player will provide over an “average player” at his respective position), we can see that just two positions have a positive WAR. That means that only the CF position — manned mostly by former Texas Ranger outcast Odubel Herrera — — and the catcher position — manned with a combination of the aforementioned Carlos Ruiz and late bloomer Cameron Rupp — are statistically above average players. That means that all the infielders and outfielder sans Herrera are at replacement level — or worse. It doesn't take a statistician to know those number shouldn't lend itself to many wins.

Furthermore, we can see that the Phillies’ offense is severely under-performing using more traditional statistics. In the NL this season, the Phillies are second to last in runs, home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage), and third to last in batting average and walks. Again, these numbers suggest that the Phillies should be no where near a winning record, yet the Phils remain 5 games over the .500 mark. If the batters aren’t getting the job done, the pitchers must be on fire, right?

Yes, but not to as much of an extent as you may think. The Phillies pitching staff is filled with well-aged veterans looking for a fresh start to their careers, with guys like SP Jeremy Hellickson and new closer Jeanmar Gomez pitching decently well. Meanwhile, the new young arms who are still adjusting to the major league level are also pitching very well. Young starters Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez are a combined 7–3 with a 2.81 ERA. As whole, the Phillies pitching staff has been quite good. Looking at somewhat basic statistics (because I don’t find sabermetrics as useful for pitchers), the Phillies are currently ranked 6th in ERA and total runs allowed, 5th in WHIP, 4th in opposing batting average, 2nd in strikeouts, and are actually tied with the Marlins for the most saves. While these numbers are good, it still shouldn’t be enough to overcome such a languid offense. So if the hitters are wildly under-preforming, and the pitching is doing fairly well, but not really enough to overcome the batting woes, are the Phillies just reaping the benefits of bad luck?

Not exactly. There are a few factors that go into why the Phillies are playing so well. First off, the Phillies do tremendously well in one-run ballgames. Their record is 14–3 in games where the final score was just one more run than the other team. The Phillies are by far the best team in these situations — the next best teams in this respect are the Mariners and the Giants, both of whom have just 8 wins in one-run ball games. The Phillies are also 4–0 in games that run into extra innings. The Phils are great in close ballgames, and a big part of their success is the bullpen. Four RPs in the bullpen have an ERA of 3.27 or better, relief pitchers have been 9–4 as a whole for the team this season, and closer Jeanmar Gomez has only one blown save in 15 attempts. From these stats, we can see just how essential the Phillies relief pitching is to winning the close ballgames, and have really been the MVP’s of the team this year.

So now that we know the facts, we should ask: is the success of the Phillies sustainable for the whole season? It’s too early to say — after all, the MLB season isn’t even one-third over yet. I admit, it will be difficult for the Phillies to keep up the sucess that they’ve had in one-run/extra inning contests; though it’s not out of the question to expect similar results as the season moves into summer. The Phillies close style of winning reminds me a lot of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, who were 29–9 in one-run games, and 16–2 in extra inning games. They were able to keep up their success all year, winning 93 games, and making the playoffs.

It would be quite the feat for the Phils to emulate the 2012 Orioles and earn a playoff appearance, but they could remain competitive for the NL East title and potentially a wild card berth in September. The bullpen can’t do it all by themselves though, and the position players need to start producing if the Phillies can seriously contend for the playoffs. Trading for a batter (maybe an outfielder?) with a positive WAR would be a tremendous help, adding some much-needed run support for the pitching. The Phillies were supposed to be one of baseball’s worst teams this year, but they're outperforming just enough to be on track to play meaningful games come September. Even if the Phillies don’t continue to play as well as they have been, this season will still be considered a minor success. It’s a ray of hope for better years ahead — once the rebuilding process is over.