How We Make Terrible Decisions Because We Ignore Regression to The Mean

Extreme events will most likely be followed by the average

Imagine we are tossing a fair coin, and after a thousand tosses, you have 253 heads and 747 tails. If you are told to predict the outcome of the next toss, what would you predict? I bet you would predict a head. You may know that the chances of…

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Matthew Prince

Matthew Prince

4.4K Followers

I am a writer who is trying to understand the world. I write on philosophy, psychology, social justice, and everything else. For more info: princedet5@gmail.com