Feb 23, 2021
History of the Second-wave in Pandemics
When a global pandemic starts to slow down, there is an ease in the people and a sense of relief. But history speaks for itself and most of the pandemics give insecurity upon this relief. Pandemic diseases when subsided at their initial peak, it tends to infect another segment of the population and spread new, giving rise to a second wave. Researchers say there would be a spiked number of cases and deaths if intervention to limit the spread of infection is relaxed.
The term and theory of “The second wave" are typically taken from 1918–1920 Spanish flu. This outbreak resulted in deaths from 20 million to 50 million. The occurrence of World War and the outbreak of pandemic simultaneously worsened the situation resulting in the most deaths resulted from a pandemic.
The word “Wave” comes from the 1889–92 outbreak. It had various phases that occurred in multiple years.
A simple timeline of the global pandemic is as follows:
- 1889–92 (possible origin -Russia): 2 phases, later more severe.
- 1918–20 (USA/China): 2 phases, later more severe.1946–48 (Australia/China): mild phases.
- 1957–58 (China): 2 phases, equally severe.
- 1968–69 (China): mild and slow spread.
- 1977–78 (China): Unclear due to co-circulation of other influenza viruses.
- 2009–10 (Mexico): 2 phases, mild.
2019- current (China): Ongoing.
The history itself shows, the pandemics may step into a second phase or typically called a Second wave, which is more deadly than the previous one.
The most common causes were relaxation and not following the minimum social and physical distance between people.
Many a time in the history of pandemics, the later phases are comprised of co-circulation of other viruses and bacteria simultaneously. So it was very difficult to interpret whether the second phase was due to the micro-organism that caused the pandemic or the micro-organism has undergone some significant mutations leading to the increased efficacy and efficiency of causing infections again, or the outbreak by any of the seasonal viruses and bacteriae. Although there’s inconsistent evidence of the second phase, the waves are visible and rhythmic.
Unlike other viruses, coronaviridae is associated with influenza virus exhibits seasonal circulation, especially during winters. The current Covid-19 is also seen in the same season. Although the number of cases is anticipated to be narrowed down in summers and at higher temperatures, it has no specific evidence of least decreased infections.
Although it is uncertain about the second wave of Covid-19 in India by the given substantial uncertainties and Novelty in the virus, along with new other strains of coronavirus; preparedness, planning, immediate response, and separation of suspected cases, robust surveillance and follow-up actions should be taken into account. Better evidence and understanding are needed for further evaluation.
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